Arkansas Derby

[zico20]

Damn, do I love this race. The public is going to make it a three horse race with the other seven most likely double digit odds. Muth will be 7-5, Timberlake 9-5 and Mystik Dan 3-1. There is one huge question that everyone will have to answer with confidence, if not, then it would be wise to pass the race. What is Mystik Dan going to do off that monster win on the sealed, muddy track. Is he going to back it up on a fast track Saturday or was the mud the only reason he ran off like Secretariat. Muth and Timberlake are going to run their race and look nearly impossible to keep out of the trifecta.

Will Take It 50-1 ML He went off 42-1 in a maiden race last time and lost. Easy TOSS

Timberlake 9-5 ML Great return race and should improve again. Problem is Muth is going to get the jump on him and he lost to him in the BC Juvenile. Can easily win the race and stamp himself as the favorite or second choice in the Derby.

Dimatic 20-1 ML His Rebel wasn't as bad as it looks. He beat over half the field and improved his Brisnet number once again. He beat Just Steel by three lengths. Has an outside chance of rounding out the super.

Time for Truth 20-1 ML Some may like this horse but I don't. His Brisnet figures are going the wrong direction, 96 88 84. He may be on the lead so that is a plus unless Muth wants it and in that circumstance he will probably run last or second last. PASS

Liberal Arts 15-1 ML I was shocked to see his ML so high, I thought it would be 8-1 which is what I think he goes off at, maybe 10-1 but not 15-1. Six for six in the money so he always runs well. What stands out is that his race after over a three month layoff was equal to his G3 win Brisnet wise. That should mean another big step forward today. New jock change to Tyler! I see him finishing anywhere from potentially second to fourth. Hard to see him totally out of the super. Looks solid!

Informed Patriot 30-1 ML He lost by a few lengths to a non winner of one CA bred in the Sunland Derby. He has no late kick and hard to recommend off that last clunker. TOSS

Muth 8-5 ML In Baffert we trust! He will have the horse ready off the layoff. Always bet and has the option of going to the front or sitting off the . He gets my top selection based on the set up off the race.

Just Steel 15-1 ML This is going to be his 11th race since last June without a break. I give Lukas credit for staying old school and running horses like they were meant to. To like him you have to really claim the five wide both turns was the culprit last time. I see him closer to the pace this time, a prime stalking trip behind the and . Has a shot at the back end of the trifecta with a top race and have to use in the super.

Mystik Dan 5-2 ML I am going to come right out and say it, I believe the muddy track was the reason he ran so well and he is going to regress big time on the fast track. He fell apart twice going a mile or longer on the fast track and I see it again this time. I don't think he is that good and the distance is a question mark the longer he goes. Don't like him!

Imperial Gun 30-1 ML Ran a distant fourth at 4-5 in a NW1 allowance. He doesn't belong in the race. Easy TOSS

My selections are Should be a fun race between Muth and Timberlake!

[dballard125]

Being that Baffert can't take Muth to the Derby, he's entering him here with the intention of taking home a 7 figure purse and I'm sure he'll have him geared to go.

Exacta: w/

Trifecta: w/ w/

[bisket]

This race has peaked my interest… I think liberal arts moves up with the added distance, and I like Will Take it for piece of the pie… 8 to 1 first or second and 40 to 1 second, third, or fourth… just need to fill in the blanks

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Looking at this race and field, what really sticks out is the late pace figs for Timberlake. He absolutely towers over this field with his late pace figs for a horse that has ran against the toughest competition and races to date with solid success. Thus, essentially the entire field has to be feeling almost forced to get early position because they simply aren't passing him late.

Muth is the other top end contender. He only has 1 race as a 3YO under his belt, and that was 7F in the G2 San Vicente. Since that January 3YO beau, he has been pushing out a fair amount of works including his last 3 works at 6F. Undoubtedly Baffert has been building stamina into this one, and I have little doubt he is sending forward to be on or very near the lead making sure to be in front of his main rival in Timberlake and his powerful late punch.

I'm seeing at least the , , , and all also needing to be full send to have any shot in here.

Mystik Dan will take some $ as well. Obviously the romp in the slop has to prick one's ears as to how good it really was, and the need to see a lot more than that single race in which sloppy tracks often times carry horses well beyond their talent. However, that race also saw a change in his racing style as he sat back and came with one run. Is he now a mid-pack closer with first run on the leaders? Likely to punt, but certainly won't be surprised to see him in the Ex.

Only other one I see worth mentioning is the Liberal Arts. Like everyone else, I don't think we've seen near the best of this guy, and with this being his 2nd outing as a 3YO with a strong work tab coming in, I'm thinking we get his very best race to date. Will it be good enough? And will the price be worth it to find out?

Maybe see if I can get the to clunk up in the Tri with either the or not finishing in the EX somehow? straight Tri?

[MJC922]

Timberlake looks the part IMO. 4 is fast enough to set the pace, I just hope that's the intent here because it should put a little bit of a dent in Bob's plans. I don't even see Timberlake as being that far back, maybe 4th after a quarter mile sitting comfortably at the rail. Should be a clean trip if he shows up.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Timberlake looks the part IMO. 4 is fast enough to set the pace, I just hope that's the intent here because it should put a little bit of a dent in Bob's plans. I don't even see Timberlake as being that far back, maybe 4th after a quarter mile sitting comfortably at the rail. Should be a clean trip if he shows up.

When does Timberlake's problem changing leads catch up to him? He stumbled through the stretch like a drunken sailor in the Rebel. That also gives you an idea of what he was running against in that race. I think Mystik Dan might be the best overlay of the favorites. Very professional in the stretch last out. Look at the spacing of his races in late fall and winter. Those races he backed up didn't have many works between them. Ran an allowance at churchill 11/25 and the next work was 12/25. I'm guessing he was galloping between that. After he backed up in the Smarty Jones he had the 3 works before he exploded in the Southwest. That was the 1st race he was trained properly for a win.... Any chance everything before that was conditioning while racing? He might bounce off that last one, but he's better than everyone is giving him credit for...

[bisket]

I was kicking myself after the Southwest for not seeing how he was trained coming into that race...

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by bisket

When does Timberlake's problem changing leads catch up to him? He stumbled through the stretch like a drunken sailor in the Rebel. That also gives you an idea of what he was running against in that race. I think Mystik Dan might be the best overlay of the favorites. Very professional in the stretch last out. Look at the spacing of his races in late fall and winter. Those races he backed up didn't have many works between them. Ran an allowance at churchill 11/25 and the next work was 12/25. I'm guessing he was galloping between that. After he backed up in the Smarty Jones he had the 3 works before he exploded in the Southwest. That was the 1st race he was trained properly for a win.... Any chance everything before that was conditioning while racing? He might bounce off that last one, but he's better than everyone is giving him credit for...

Good number last out on Mystik Dan but for me it's almost a 5 point new top that came on a wet track. Was 1 for 4 going into that so nothing really compelling about finding a way to get the job done mentally. He rated and it worked so they'll probably just rate again. Problem is, who is he going by rating in here? If he's ahead of Timberlake he's trying to put away Muth and then trying to hold off Timberlake and if he's behind Timberlake he isn't going by IMO. Plus I kind of see him with a wide-ish trip, picks up some weight, looks undersized. He has talent off that number but so far I just see a one number horse that I don't want for a penny in here. With all that being said I'm sure he'll just loop these for fun and draw clear, that's racing.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by bisket

When does Timberlake's problem changing leads catch up to him? He stumbled through the stretch like a drunken sailor in the Rebel. That also gives you an idea of what he was running against in that race.

What race are you watching? While he didn't change leads immediately, he was on RIGHT LEAD the majority of the stretch run. Absolutely nothing wrong with his stride in the stretch once he changed.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

What race are you watching? While he didn't change leads immediately, he was on RIGHT LEAD the majority of the stretch run. Absolutely nothing wrong with his stride in the stretch once he changed.

Agree with you. I watched a few of his races and see no issue. He's been a bit rank early, maybe a little less so than usual last time which is a good sign but Prat hasn't been on before so we'll see. My one fear is Baffert. That's always tough because his horses just 'stay on' so if he hits the front you're always in a war to get by. Look at the Preakness winner, wins a boat race then evaporates in the Belmont taking no money, by the end of the year he's a nose away from taking down a BC race against older, now still plugging along into 4yo year doesn't go away even without the lead now in Dubai, like the guy from Halloween with the mask, these horses just keep hitting next level and staying.

[Robert Fischer]

I think you can key 3rd and/or fourth in gimmicks



Tossing the

[bisket]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

What race are you watching? While he didn't change leads immediately, he was on RIGHT LEAD the majority of the stretch run. Absolutely nothing wrong with his stride in the stretch once he changed.

He didn’t change leads until the rider took him wide half way through the stretch and tugged on reins and hit him with the whip. I can just a see that working all the time with grade 1 horses….

[classhandicapper]

Mystic Dan was inside on a day that the rail was the place to be. It was also an interesting race in that the fractions weren't particularly fast, but the race was loaded with speed and the flow seemed to favor closers like him. I;d have to downgrade that last a bit.

Just Steel was very wide both turns last time (around 5 wide). He may not be good enough to win, but he should run better than last time and can get a piece of something if he does.

Dimatic was bumped at the start and checked a bit later. Neither drew a chart comment or trouble line comment. Seems like an improving sort that may be a hair better than he looks.

Muth and Timberlake have obvious merit as the most likely winners.

[GaryG]

I like LIBERAL ARTS. He looked strong past the wire and is set to run big. I discount Mystik Dan's performance on that golden rail. Betting him WP and a box with Timberlake.

[Robert Fischer]

$ tri 27 / 27 / 6
$ su 27 / 27 / A / 6

Politics Play = 27
Liberal arts & Informed Patriot