Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-11-2018, 04:00 PM   #16
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
If the industry is looking into 3-way betting as an interesting wagering option...all they have to do is be a little patient. If past history is any indication...the "normal" game will evolve to that stage in due time.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:07 PM   #17
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If the industry is looking into 3-way betting as an interesting wagering option...all they have to do is be a little patient. If past history is any indication...the "normal" game will evolve to that stage in due time.
Tried to add to your rep for this one it was so funny, but it wouldn't let me so instead...

cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:11 PM   #18
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Tried to add to your rep for this one it was so funny, but it wouldn't let me...
No doubt a conspiracy on the part of PA-Mike...in order to keep my popularity-level down.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:12 PM   #19
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Tried to add to your rep for this one it was so funny, but it wouldn't let me so instead...

Mine went through for Thask…...First time it went through in 3 previous attempts...
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:13 PM   #20
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
No doubt a conspiracy on the part of PA-Mike...in order to keep my popularity-level down.
The system makes you "spread it around"...guess I gave you some too recently.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:20 PM   #21
Psychotic Parakeet
Sartin Methodology Fan
 
Psychotic Parakeet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Earth
Posts: 328
I have a feeling this will die out like those fancy Horse Racing Wizard machines.
__________________
"And there they go! It's Toupée going on ahead, Long Underwear has fallen behind, Toothpaste is being squeezed out on the rail as Banana joins the bunch, and Cabbage is trailing by a head."
Psychotic Parakeet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 04:52 PM   #22
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Yes, I get it. You have three betting options with a 15+% takeout. That is terrible for horseplayers. It is slightly better than the same takeout on a coin flip, but here you won't even know the odds you are getting until after the bell.

Let's add the breakage (California breaks to 10 cents on the dollar), so that's an additional 4.5 percent.


So the takeout is about 20 percent.


Now, let's take two pools, one a 10 horse field and one a field with three betting interests.


We'll put $300,000 in each pool.


In the first pool, if you bet $20 each time, you on average lose 9 times and then get paid on your 10th bet, an average of $160. Over 30 bets, you bet $600 and return $480.


In the second pool, if you bet $20 each time, you on average lose twice and get paid on your 3rd bet, an average of $48. Over 30 bets, you bet $600 and return $480.


Mathematically there is no difference in the world between a 20 percent takeout on a field with 3 betting interests and one with 10.


The reason why players prefer a field with 10 betting interests is because the probability of there being a play with positive expected value in any particular race is higher. That's true. But that would be true whether the takeout was 20 percent or 2 percent.


But there's no particular reason to think this is a bad bet because of the takeout. If you find 15 percent + breakage to be potentially beatable with larger numbers of betting interests, it should also be potentially beatable with three betting interests, with the caveat that you may have to wait longer between profitable spots. (Though maybe you don't have to wait so long if I am right that this bet is a hit with novices.)
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2018, 05:15 PM   #23
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Let's add the breakage (California breaks to 10 cents on the dollar), so that's an additional 4.5 percent.


So the takeout is about 20 percent.


Now, let's take two pools, one a 10 horse field and one a field with three betting interests.


We'll put $300,000 in each pool.


In the first pool, if you bet $20 each time, you on average lose 9 times and then get paid on your 10th bet, an average of $160. Over 30 bets, you bet $600 and return $480.


In the second pool, if you bet $20 each time, you on average lose twice and get paid on your 3rd bet, an average of $48. Over 30 bets, you bet $600 and return $480.


Mathematically there is no difference in the world between a 20 percent takeout on a field with 3 betting interests and one with 10.


The reason why players prefer a field with 10 betting interests is because the probability of there being a play with positive expected value in any particular race is higher. That's true. But that would be true whether the takeout was 20 percent or 2 percent.


But there's no particular reason to think this is a bad bet because of the takeout. If you find 15 percent + breakage to be potentially beatable with larger numbers of betting interests, it should also be potentially beatable with three betting interests, with the caveat that you may have to wait longer between profitable spots. (Though maybe you don't have to wait so long if I am right that this bet is a hit with novices.)
You are overestimating the effect of breakage. No way it is 4.5% at the bigger field size. It varies and increases as payoffs get lower, but on average it adds about 1% to takeout. However, in this case, the payoffs will certainly average lower in a three horse field than a 10 horse field, so it will hurt more. That is the main culprit...lower field size means payoffs will be smaller and breakage hurts more.

You can't put a precise number on it because payoffs vary. However, lets say the average payoff for a three horse field is 5.10, and the average payoff for a 10 horse field is 12.10. Those may or may not be correct but they are close enough to make the point. A $2 bet paying 5.10 means breakage, which should average about 10 cents per winning bet (actually 9.5), cuts your profit by about 3.1%. (3.10 / 3.20) = .969. A 12.10 payoff is affected less by breakage. (12.10 / 12.20) = .992, or less than 1% additional breakage, or about 0.8%. That is a 2.3% difference and will be quite meaningful long term.

For those wondering, breakage should average about 9.5 cents per $2 bet on the California rate because it will range from 0 to 19 cents. Over a large sample it should come out to about 9.5 cents.

Last edited by cj; 12-11-2018 at 05:17 PM.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.