Correlating race-flow, winner's running style, and winner's odds with speed-figs

[mountainman]

It stands to reason that races won by chalk would result in higher beyers ( sheets-figs..etc). And shouldn't races in which a loose lead is established early- whether wired, or not-also trend toward bigger numbers (when allowing for class-level, of course) ?? And do front-running winners, on avg, post higher numbers than victorious closers or stalkers??

I'm wondering if any poster has explored such presumed correlations.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by mountainman

It stands to reason that races won by chalk would result in higher beyers ( sheets-figs..etc). And shouldn't races in which a loose lead is established early- whether wired, or not-also trend toward bigger numbers (when allowing for class-level, of course) ?? And do front-running winners, on avg, post higher numbers than victorious closers or stalkers??

I'm wondering if any poster has explored such presumed correlations.

Since speed ratings are a function of pace--and not the other way around...I don't see any value there. Pace figs would be more telling, IMO.

Food for thought, though.

[classhandicapper]

mountain,

I have the data to do some studies like that, but I'm kind of swamped right now doing other things. I'll put it on my "to do" list.

Based on observation, I think you are correct. Most really big figures involve some speed horse blowing out a field while loose on the lead or on a track carrying speed well. Closers are more dependent on what's happening in front of them and even then their move is timed to the other horses and not necessarily to the pace in a way that maximizes their final time.

I create my own automated class and race flow ratings at the race level. I include odds in my thinking.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Since speed ratings are a function of pace--and not the other way around...I don't see any value there. Pace figs would be more telling, IMO.

Food for thought, though.

Speed figs are also a function of race-flow-as relates to running style. Without complicating things by introducing fractions, I'm simply wondering if it can be factually verified through final time that winning chalks indeed proved more formidable adversaries than winning longshots, and if a stalker losing by ,say, 5 lengths to a winner exploiting a lone f trip performed better than another stalker finishing the same margin behind a late-running winner.

I know you're a good handicapper and I agree that pace can influence time, but that's not quite the direction of my thesis. And I do think, btw, that cause and effect can sometimes be confused in these instances. Some fields (and horses) run fast early because they are sharp and destined to run a big speed-fig, while in other instances, taxing splits indeed deplete the pace brigade.

I must concede, for sure, that you're probably better versed in pace-figs and their utility than I am. I focus strictly on running style and race-flow, and would characterize myself as more of a position handicapper.

My only exploration of fractions-and I'm sure this sounds primitive on a forum called "pace advantage"- is to compare splits posted at the same distance on the same card (while occasionally employing a self-styled "conversion formula" derived from unscientific experience, or from Dave's Horsestreet pars)

My time is instead spent assessing how the race unfolded and pulling up pp's on the leaders so I can gauge how much speed they possessed beforehand. In other words, it's more the quality than the adjusted measurement of fractional times that interests me.

But again, my handicapping is quirky and I'm sure more limited than your own.

TX very much for the response, sir.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Since speed ratings are a function of pace--and not the other way around...I don't see any value there. Pace figs would be more telling, IMO.

Food for thought, though.

You are correct, it is pace (rate of motion). The old saying of: “It is not how fast a horse runs; it is how it run fast” supports this assertion.

The difference between closers and front-runners is the inherent metabolic distribution of energy. Shorter races favor the front-runner because of its conversion of fuel to energy to run occurs earlier in the race and longer races favor closers because the conversion is later; this is not an exact science and the energy conversion doesn’t always happen at the same distance of the race for every front-runner or for every closer.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

mountain,

I have the data to do some studies like that, but I'm kind of swamped right now doing other things. I'll put it on my "to do" list.

Based on observation, I think you are correct. Most really big figures involve some speed horse blowing out a field while loose on the lead or on a track carrying speed well. Closers are more dependent on what's happening in front of them and even then their move is timed to the other horses and not necessarily to the pace in a way that maximizes their final time.

I create my own automated class and race flow ratings at the race level. I include odds in my thinking.

Tx, Wayne. Great post.

Any chance formulator creates the option to install notes visible for THAT day's card? As opposed to when those horses run back??

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Cratos

You are correct, it is pace (rate of motion). The old saying of: “It is not how fast a horse runs; it is how it run fast” supports this assertion.

The difference between closers and front-runners is the inherent metabolic distribution of energy. Shorter races favor the front-runner because of its conversion of fuel to energy to run occurs earlier in the race and longer races favor closers because the conversion is later; this is not an exact science and the energy conversion doesn’t always happen at the same distance of the race for every front-runner or for every closer.

You're above my plane of thought, sir. I feel like I'm talking to one of those big-cranium aliens that tortured poor Cpt Pike in that rarely seen, pre-Kirk Star Trek Pilot.

Whatever you just said, I concede!!!!

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

You're above my plane of thought, sir. I feel like I'm talking to one of those big-cranium aliens that tortured poor Cpt Pike in that rarely seen, pre-Kirk Star Trek Pilot.

Whatever you just said, I concede!!!!

I not attempting to be above your "plane of thought" nor am I giving you some intellectual bedazzlement.

I am just stating the reason why I agreed with the poster "NorCalGreg."

However, I am puzzled why you went off on a tangent inferring that you were being insulted when that didn't happen.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I not attempting to be above your "plane of thought" nor am I giving you some intellectual bedazzlement.

I am just stating the reason why I agreed with the poster "NorCalGreg."

However, I am puzzled why you went off on a tangent inferring that you were being insulted when that didn't happen.

No. Please don't be offended. I respect your knowledge and was making a joke. And I well realize nobody insulted me.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by mountainman

You're above my plane of thought, sir. I feel like I'm talking to one of those big-cranium aliens that tortured poor Cpt Pike in that rarely seen, pre-Kirk Star Trek Pilot.

Whatever you just said, I concede!!!!

[YT="45 second mark......"]u4OoIlQOjrc[/YT]

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

[YT="45 second mark......"]u4OoIlQOjrc[/YT]

Love that pilot!! Creepy and poignant.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Cratos

You are correct, it is pace (rate of motion). The old saying of: “It is not how fast a horse runs; it is how it run fast” supports this assertion.

The difference between closers and front-runners is the inherent metabolic distribution of energy. Shorter races favor the front-runner because of its conversion of fuel to energy to run occurs earlier in the race and longer races favor closers because the conversion is later; this is not an exact science and the energy conversion doesn’t always happen at the same distance of the race for every front-runner or for every closer.

--and:

Originally Posted by mountainman

You're above my plane of thought, sir. I feel like I'm talking to one of those big-cranium aliens that tortured poor Cpt Pike in that rarely seen, pre-Kirk Star Trek Pilot.

Whatever you just said, I concede!!!!

Ok. Here's a real life example that just happened a few minutes ago on the AQU inner during the running of R7:

The favorite, #3 MANIPULATED, a horse I see as mostly a closer, and who I thought would distribute max enegery in the latter stages of the race - ended up pressing the pacesetter from the outset - and in so doing - distributed his energy early - and even though he was the best horse in the race (my opinion) -- had become softened up about the time they hit the sixteenth pole.

On the other hand, #4 DO SHARE, a horse I see as much more of an early runner, and who I thought would distribute max energy during the early stages of the race - sat chilly while covered up behind dueling leaders.

And when his rider caught a break because a hole opened up in front of him during the stretch run when the now softened up #3 MANIPULATED momentarily drifted in -- that's when Mike Luzzi said "distribute your energy NOW!"...

And DO SHARE responded by doing what racehorses are supposed to do: He gave his all, surged forward, and ran down a tired favorite.

Both riders changed up the run styles of their respective mounts -- and both horses distributed their energy in a way that was the opposite of what I would have predicted.

EDIT: Taking things a step further within the context of the question being asked in post #1 at the top of this thread:

When MANIPULATED comes back to race again: As a bettor I think I might do well to refer back to my notes about his AQU R7 01-15-2017 running line because his speed and pace figs from that line aren't likely to paint a true picture of his ability or form.


-jp

.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

--and:


Ok. Here's a real life example that just happened a few minutes ago on the AQU inner during the running of R7:

The favorite, #3 MANIPULATED, a horse I see as mostly a closer, and who I thought would distribute max enegery in the latter stages of the race - ended up pressing the pacesetter from the outset - and in so doing - distributed his energy early - and even though he was the best horse in the race (my opinion) -- had become softened up about the time they hit the sixteenth pole.

On the other hand, #4 DO SHARE, a horse I see as much more of an early runner, and who I thought would distribute max energy during the early stages of the race - sat chilly while covered up behind dueling leaders.

And when his rider caught a break because a hole opened up in front of him during the stretch run when the now softened up #3 MANIPULATED momentarily drifted in -- that's when Mike Luzzi said "distribute your energy NOW!"...

And DO SHARE responded by doing what racehorses are supposed to do: He gave his all, surged forward, and ran down a tired favorite.

Both riders changed up the run styles of their respective mounts -- and both horses distributed their energy in a way that was the opposite of what I would have predicted.


-jp

.

Sharp post and I think that could've been predicted after the scratches. In fact, I will venture that TLG picked the 4 because of that. You could almost see the connections of the 3 saying: the 1 will be loose, do not let him get away. Who's got pp 3? The 4 horse. Intelligent ride by Luzzi after the gate break. The rest were closers with no real opportunity to get a gold rail trip.

Fun game this is....

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Tx, Wayne. Great post.

Any chance formulator creates the option to install notes visible for THAT day's card? As opposed to when those horses run back??

If you describe what you are looking for in a more detailed way and send me a private note, I can take it to the product manager and make sure it is at least discussed. Now is a good time to try to get some enhancements on the priority list.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

--and:


Ok. Here's a real life example that just happened a few minutes ago on the AQU inner during the running of R7:

The favorite, #3 MANIPULATED, a horse I see as mostly a closer, and who I thought would distribute max enegery in the latter stages of the race - ended up pressing the pacesetter from the outset - and in so doing - distributed his energy early - and even though he was the best horse in the race (my opinion) -- had become softened up about the time they hit the sixteenth pole.

On the other hand, #4 DO SHARE, a horse I see as much more of an early runner, and who I thought would distribute max energy during the early stages of the race - sat chilly while covered up behind dueling leaders.

And when his rider caught a break because a hole opened up in front of him during the stretch run when the now softened up #3 MANIPULATED momentarily drifted in -- that's when Mike Luzzi said "distribute your energy NOW!"...

And DO SHARE responded by doing what racehorses are supposed to do: He gave his all, surged forward, and ran down a tired favorite.

Both riders changed up the run styles of their respective mounts -- and both horses distributed their energy in a way that was the opposite of what I would have predicted.

EDIT: Taking things a step further within the context of the question being asked in post #1 at the top of this thread:

When MANIPULATED comes back to race again: As a bettor I think I might do well to refer back to my notes about his AQU R7 01-15-2017 running line because his speed and pace figs from that line aren't likely to paint a true picture of his ability or form.


-jp

.

Thanks Jeff for that post and that is why it should be understood that although the principles of science readily apply to the handicapping of racehorses; horses are not machines.