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Old 10-06-2020, 06:57 PM   #106
Poindexter
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I think there are always savvy handicappers who can take advantage of suspected and actual doping.

That doesn't mean it isn't unfair to the other handicappers, though, just like if you can figure out how a poker player cheats and exploit it, it doesn't make it not unfair to the other poker players.
Of course, as long as I have been betting horses and that is about 45 years now, I have always suspected certain trainers of being drug trainers. Are my suspicions accurate, who knows? it is irrelevant anyhow. But when a trainer claims a horse and it improves about 6 lengths in it's next start, from a handicapping perspective, you take note. When it happens with regularity, you really take note. Barn changes are part of the capping process whether it is illegal drugs or tender loving care.

I would love for there to be no drugs in horse racing and for horsemen to do the right thing (eg laying a horse off or retiring him rather than trying to squeeze one more race out of him and watching him break down in front of everyone), but detecting drugs, proving the trainer is responsible and laying down a reasonable punishment (like a lifetime ban from the sport) doesn't seem like anything that will happen in my lifetime. BTW,I would love to be proven wrong in this area. Let me know when it happens.
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Old 10-06-2020, 07:43 PM   #107
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You state this frequently, and I am not disputing it, although I think in most instances most horses are in a race to win, but this is a seriously problem, is it not? If a horse is not trying to win isn't the betting public being completely defrauded? If it is necessary for horses to race themselves into condition without trying to win a race, should they not be entered for purse money only? Are you saying this not trying to win also goes on in the mighty Hong Kong?

Is all of this okay, because you have a tote method that puts you on the horses that are supposedly trying?
I completely disagree! A horse may be entered in a race for any number of reasons including a request by a racing secretary to a trainer to simply fill a race. Anyone playing also has the right to simply pass a race if they feel that there’s something going on beyond their subjective analysis. Fortunately there are ways to recognize a racing workout from a handicapping perspective. So the public is not entirely in the dark when it comes to racing workouts. No trainer has to disclose their reason for entering or not entering a horse in a race. They do that at their own discretion. The final result of any race doesn’t hold anyone accountable for its outcome unless there’s a major infraction during the race.

There may very well be similar situations in Hong Kong, but because they require the local stock to compete in race trials periodically to prove they’re capable of competing it’s probably not as prevalent.
Also, the jockeys in Hong Kong are held accountable and sometimes heavily penalized and fined when the stewards believe that they did not make a serious attempt to remain competitive in any race.

Supposedly trying? You just have to always keep in mind who's controlling EVERY aspect (from health to conditioning) of race horse's competitive life.
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Old 10-06-2020, 07:50 PM   #108
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Of course, as long as I have been betting horses and that is about 45 years now, I have always suspected certain trainers of being drug trainers. Are my suspicions accurate, who knows? it is irrelevant anyhow. But when a trainer claims a horse and it improves about 6 lengths in it's next start, from a handicapping perspective, you take note. When it happens with regularity, you really take note. Barn changes are part of the capping process whether it is illegal drugs or tender loving care.

I would love for there to be no drugs in horse racing and for horsemen to do the right thing (eg laying a horse off or retiring him rather than trying to squeeze one more race out of him and watching him break down in front of everyone), but detecting drugs, proving the trainer is responsible and laying down a reasonable punishment (like a lifetime ban from the sport) doesn't seem like anything that will happen in my lifetime. BTW,I would love to be proven wrong in this area. Let me know when it happens.
Like I've been saying around here for years Hong Kong has the best product on the planet for the very reasons you're searching for. Yes, and it's happened in your lifetime too! Too bad it hasn't happened in the States.
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Old 10-06-2020, 08:58 PM   #109
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I completely disagree! A horse may be entered in a race for any number of reasons including a request by a racing secretary to a trainer to simply fill a race. Anyone playing also has the right to simply pass a race if they feel that there’s something going on beyond their subjective analysis. Fortunately there are ways to recognize a racing workout from a handicapping perspective. So the public is not entirely in the dark when it comes to racing workouts. No trainer has to disclose their reason for entering or not entering a horse in a race. They do that at their own discretion. The final result of any race doesn’t hold anyone accountable for its outcome unless there’s a major infraction during the race.

There may very well be similar situations in Hong Kong, but because they require the local stock to compete in race trials periodically to prove they’re capable of competing it’s probably not as prevalent.
Also, the jockeys in Hong Kong are held accountable and sometimes heavily penalized and fined when the stewards believe that they did not make a serious attempt to remain competitive in any race.

Supposedly trying? You just have to always keep in mind who's controlling EVERY aspect (from health to conditioning) of race horse's competitive life.
Interesting. I challenge anyone to point out 100 contenders (under 10-1 final odds) over any period of time and presumably all 100 of these horses will not win, because here are detectable signs in the past performances that these horses are not out to win today.

RE No trainer has to disclose their reason for entering or not entering a horse in a race. They do that at their own discretion.

Does this make it right that many unsuspecting members of the betting public are betting a horse with zero intention of winning a race? It would be like Vegas having a roulette wheel where 3 numbers are disabled from popping up and accepting bets on those numbers? What is the difference?
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:35 PM   #110
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Interesting. I challenge anyone to point out 100 contenders (under 10-1 final odds) over any period of time and presumably all 100 of these horses will not win, because here are detectable signs in the past performances that these horses are not out to win today.

RE No trainer has to disclose their reason for entering or not entering a horse in a race. They do that at their own discretion.

Does this make it right that many unsuspecting members of the betting public are betting a horse with zero intention of winning a race? It would be like Vegas having a roulette wheel where 3 numbers are disabled from popping up and accepting bets on those numbers? What is the difference?
Unless I am mistaken, the racing rulebook states that all the jockeys in all the races are obligated to put forth their best effort so that their mounts attain the best finishing position possible. Am I wrong about this? And if I am right...how do the trainers get away with using actual races for "conditioning" purposes?
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Old 10-07-2020, 11:40 AM   #111
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Unless I am mistaken, the racing rulebook states that all the jockeys in all the races are obligated to put forth their best effort so that their mounts attain the best finishing position possible. Am I wrong about this? And if I am right...how do the trainers get away with using actual races for "conditioning" purposes?
You're right. Indeed, most technically, trainers are supposed to be trying to win too.

In reality, of course, nobody ever enforces this except in the case of obvious stiff jobs, and I am not sure you really could.

Interestingly, I would actually guess that this was MORE of a problem in the past, when horses were "raced into condition". In that era, trainers often entered horses to "give them a race" and instructed jockeys not to make the horse exert too much. Nowadays, a lot more trainers use workouts instead.
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Old 10-07-2020, 02:31 PM   #112
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You're right. Indeed, most technically, trainers are supposed to be trying to win too.

In reality, of course, nobody ever enforces this except in the case of obvious stiff jobs, and I am not sure you really could.

Interestingly, I would actually guess that this was MORE of a problem in the past, when horses were "raced into condition". In that era, trainers often entered horses to "give them a race" and instructed jockeys not to make the horse exert too much. Nowadays, a lot more trainers use workouts instead.
That’s an interesting (guess) comment. If that scenario only pertains to something done in the past then why do people in the handicapping world continue to refer to the better betting possibilities as those where entries are coming into a race 2nd or 3rd time off a layoff?
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Old 10-07-2020, 05:20 PM   #113
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That’s an interesting (guess) comment. If that scenario only pertains to something done in the past then why do people in the handicapping world continue to refer to the better betting possibilities as those where entries are coming into a race 2nd or 3rd time off a layoff?
I look at this from my perspective. If I haven't run in months, and I take a one mile run today, I will be lucky to do a 12 minute mile. After doing the 12 minute mile today, I can probably go 11:45 on Friday, and 11:30 on Saturday....Thus if a horse is a first time starter, or coming off a layoff or going a distance of ground for the first time (say 6F to 1 1/8) we don't know if he is in condition to win today. Somebody that studies workout patterns may have a really good idea(I am not that person so I can't tell you). I don't assume the horse will win or won't win, but I will not be surprised if he shows up his next race and improves off today's effort. Doesn't mean the connections aren't trying and maybe they aren't, but simple progression of a horses conditioning will make the horse get better until he is completely fit. Past figures are generally a good basis to determine what kind of improvement the horse may have in him 2nd or 3rd off the layoff. I think the area that thoroughbred racing is blatantly bad is with first time/2nd time starters. Over the years I have just pretty much learned to consider a second time starter with a poor debut race as a first time starter. I have seen 2nd time starters pop up with all kinds of eye opening wins and it doesn't always show up on the board before the race. Industry definitely seems to allow this to go on with regularity.

So in these areas it is buyer beware, also you have the horse that being conditioned for a stakes race and now he is in a nw2. He will likely be 3/5 and likely win because he is better than his competition, but, don't expect them to squeeze the lemon dry to win a small purse today when there is a large purse coming up.

Most of this stuff is common sense. If trainers are going much beyond this than you are getting into a big problem area.

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Old 10-07-2020, 06:10 PM   #114
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I completely disagree! A horse may be entered in a race for any number of reasons including a request by a racing secretary to a trainer to simply fill a race. Anyone playing also has the right to simply pass a race if they feel that there’s something going on beyond their subjective analysis. Fortunately there are ways to recognize a racing workout from a handicapping perspective. So the public is not entirely in the dark when it comes to racing workouts. No trainer has to disclose their reason for entering or not entering a horse in a race. They do that at their own discretion. The final result of any race doesn’t hold anyone accountable for its outcome unless there’s a major infraction during the race.

There may very well be similar situations in Hong Kong, but because they require the local stock to compete in race trials periodically to prove they’re capable of competing it’s probably not as prevalent.
Also, the jockeys in Hong Kong are held accountable and sometimes heavily penalized and fined when the stewards believe that they did not make a serious attempt to remain competitive in any race.

Supposedly trying? You just have to always keep in mind who's controlling EVERY aspect (from health to conditioning) of race horse's competitive life.
Especially keep in mind when it's the guy picking up a $5 dinner at King's Wok and driving in with a rusted ford pinto. The idea that all of these backside folks are infallible enough to make money because they know their horse is sharp and that you can spot that action to jump on it like a flea is I think very tough to prove one way or another. When I played professionally I paid little mind to it, the trainer usually liked their horses when everyone else did, when they were spotted and when the pace looked to be favorable.

There is such a thing as dead on the board I'll give you that, but IMO live on the board is as likely to be sharp players or nobodies with deep pockets than anyone else. There were times I cashed on $30 horses flat that none of the betting trainers had. I know, I was standing in the $50 line with them, and they knew too because they would listen to what I bet on, shake their head, watch it roll and shake it some more.

Whatever works is fine, I just don't buy it's necessarily backside money especially in drug-free HK.
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Old 10-07-2020, 07:41 PM   #115
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I look at this from my perspective. If I haven't run in months, and I take a one mile run today, I will be lucky to do a 12 minute mile. After doing the 12 minute mile today, I can probably go 11:45 on Friday, and 11:30 on Saturday....Thus if a horse is a first time starter, or coming off a layoff or going a distance of ground for the first time (say 6F to 1 1/8) we don't know if he is in condition to win today. Somebody that studies workout patterns may have a really good idea(I am not that person so I can't tell you). I don't assume the horse will win or won't win, but I will not be surprised if he shows up his next race and improves off today's effort. Doesn't mean the connections aren't trying and maybe they aren't, but simple progression of a horses conditioning will make the horse get better until he is completely fit. Past figures are generally a good basis to determine what kind of improvement the horse may have in him 2nd or 3rd off the layoff. I think the area that thoroughbred racing is blatantly bad is with first time/2nd time starters. Over the years I have just pretty much learned to consider a second time starter with a poor debut race as a first time starter. I have seen 2nd time starters pop up with all kinds of eye opening wins and it doesn't always show up on the board before the race. Industry definitely seems to allow this to go on with regularity.

So in these areas it is buyer beware, also you have the horse that being conditioned for a stakes race and now he is in a nw2. He will likely be 3/5 and likely win because he is better than his competition, but, don't expect them to squeeze the lemon dry to win a small purse today when there is a large purse coming up.

Most of this stuff is common sense. If trainers are going much beyond this than you are getting into a big problem area.
Thanks for some more interesting and rational comments.
However, I believe you have misunderstood my previous response to Dilanesp. He suggested that racing workouts were a thing of the past. I questioned that statement by indicating that handicappers still refer to observations of entries having a 2nd or 3rd run after a layoff as a positive indicator for a potential winning run. So what were these same entries doing in their 1st and 2nd runs after the layoff that their pre-race workouts couldn’t accomplish?

As I mentioned your conditioning explanation sounds valid as it pertains to you as some sort of workout routine that demonstrates progressive all out runs. They actually sound more like some racing workouts only because horses aren’t generally asked to run all out in their pre-race workouts to determine how fast they might cover a certain distance.

But assuming your conditioning results are accurate how would feel about placing a substantial wager on yourself if you were facing others on Sunday who could typically run a mile in 11:00 flat? Would you bet a lot? Or nothing at all.
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:26 PM   #116
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Thanks for some more interesting and rational comments.
However, I believe you have misunderstood my previous response to Dilanesp. He suggested that racing workouts were a thing of the past. I questioned that statement by indicating that handicappers still refer to observations of entries having a 2nd or 3rd run after a layoff as a positive indicator for a potential winning run. So what were these same entries doing in their 1st and 2nd runs after the layoff that their pre-race workouts couldn’t accomplish?

As I mentioned your conditioning explanation sounds valid as it pertains to you as some sort of workout routine that demonstrates progressive all out runs. They actually sound more like some racing workouts only because horses aren’t generally asked to run all out in their pre-race workouts to determine how fast they might cover a certain distance.

But assuming your conditioning results are accurate how would feel about placing a substantial wager on yourself if you were facing others on Sunday who could typically run a mile in 11:00 flat? Would you bet a lot? Or nothing at all.




The answer for me depends on what I am capable of. I can't answer your question because I haven't run in many years (I walk). With horses, it is all a puzzle. You have layoff stats with trainers. You have race placement(if he is a legit 25,000 claimer off of a 90 day layoff and he is being put in for 16 he is either got major problems or this is a money run). The more Astute handicapper(I am not in this group) will actually track the specifics on trainers like what type of workout pattern he uses when his layoff horses fire. What type of workout pattern when they don't fire. Maybe the jockey choice might indicate how live he is. All these variables and the analysis of the are what makes up handicapping. The number 1 reason I prefer harness racing to Thoroughbreds besides the fact I am better at it, is every horse runs the same distance, week in and week out. Sometimes they miss 2 or 3 weeks, every so often a horse comes back off of a long layoff, but for the most part, I don't have to play this constant guessing game (is he ready to go or out for a workout as you call it.....). Thoroughbreds is one guessing game after another. This horse is off of a 6 month layoff, this one is first time route, this one is first time turf, this one is a 2nd time starter, this one is going from a turf route to a dirt sprint, this one hasn't raced or worked out in 45 days.... Yes, you can make individual educated guesses on each of these, but the more of these there are the more handicapping becomes guessing. Perhaps this provides a bigger edge to the more informed, but I don't have the time to become the more informed.

This is probably why you do well with your tote method. As MJC stated, you may be detecting "smart" money, but smart money is not necessarily barn money. Sometimes it is just smart money.
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Old 10-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #117
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I think angles like 2nd or 3rd off a layoff were more useful decades ago when trainers raced horses into shape.

Unless you know a trainer does poorly off a layoff or you can see a horse slowly rounding into form after a recent layoff, imo many horses are probably overbet these days on the assumption of improvement 2nd off a layoff that doesn't actually occur. Handicappers these days know not to almost automatically toss layoffs the way they did years ago because so many trainers are good at bringing them back sharp, but if they are better at bringing them sharp, that means fewer will improve 2nd off the layoff (and if they do, not as much).

(Lightly raced horses that are generally improving are a different story)
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Old 10-09-2020, 02:17 PM   #118
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I think angles like 2nd or 3rd off a layoff were more useful decades ago when trainers raced horses into shape.

Unless you know a trainer does poorly off a layoff or you can see a horse slowly rounding into form after a recent layoff, imo many horses are probably overbet these days on the assumption of improvement 2nd off a layoff that doesn't actually occur. Handicappers these days know not to almost automatically toss layoffs the way they did years ago because so many trainers are good at bringing them back sharp, but if they are better at bringing them sharp, that means fewer will improve 2nd off the layoff (and if they do, not as much).

(Lightly raced horses that are generally improving are a different story)
I would have to believe that the higher the class the less a layoff matters.
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Old 10-12-2020, 11:15 PM   #119
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Especially keep in mind when it's the guy picking up a $5 dinner at King's Wok and driving in with a rusted ford pinto. The idea that all of these backside folks are infallible enough to make money because they know their horse is sharp and that you can spot that action to jump on it like a flea is I think very tough to prove one way or another. When I played professionally I paid little mind to it, the trainer usually liked their horses when everyone else did, when they were spotted and when the pace looked to be favorable.

There is such a thing as dead on the board I'll give you that, but IMO live on the board is as likely to be sharp players or nobodies with deep pockets than anyone else. There were times I cashed on $30 horses flat that none of the betting trainers had. I know, I was standing in the $50 line with them, and they knew too because they would listen to what I bet on, shake their head, watch it roll and shake it some more.

Whatever works is fine, I just don't buy it's necessarily backside money especially in drug-free HK.
I would never attempt to determine the origin of the betting dollars. Backstretch employees may from time to time get good information about the horses in their care. That doesn’t mean that their wagering will have a major impact on the betting pools. I will say that a horse’s physicality as a known factor can out-weigh their appearance in the past performance data. More often than not this factor alone can lead to many of those big long shots winning or at least finishing in the money.

My personal experience using the tote analysis has time and again identified the true contenders (no matter what their odds might be) in a race based on the monetary wagering intentions of the connections. They certainly know a lot more about their horse’s mental and physical condition than I do.
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Old 10-13-2020, 08:24 AM   #120
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I would have to believe that the higher the class the less a layoff matters.
I agree.
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