Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-13-2020, 10:11 PM   #1
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 51
Singling in Multi-Race Wagers

I'm curious the degree to which you all are comfortable singling horses in multi-race wagers. It seems like this is an expected tactic, especially in Pick 5 and Pick 6 wagers. (For Pick 5s and Pick 6s, it's almost impossible to create an affordable ticket without singling a horse.)

I'm not sure it necessarily has to be a given.

I have been burned SO MANY TIMES by singling a horse in multi-race wagers... The horse doesn't show up, the horse dumps its rider at the break, the horse gets mugged on the far turn by a riderless horse that dumped its rider at the break, the horse has traffic trouble... That list goes on and on.

I'm just curious how you all approach singling. Thanks in advance for your insightful and helpful responses.
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 10:22 PM   #2
tbwinner
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,021
I am up lifetime in pick 4s and up only because of a single. I hit a 4K+ pick 4 because of a single that I owned that won nicely at 9-2. Funny, it was a low level claimer that I made more $ on the pick 4 wager than the purse money after paying jock and trainer.

I only play a pick 3/4+ if I have a single. As you said, it gets too expensive when you start spreading in each leg. My favorite pick 4 is when I get a solid single (that is not a prohibitive favorite) that has a "chaos" race or 2 apart of the sequence, where you can spread, and stand to cash with a 10-1+ winner apart of it.
tbwinner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 10:27 PM   #3
tbwinner
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,021
I played a caveman-type ticket 2 times that I could remember in my horseplaying life.

One, was for the pick 6 carryover after Drosselmeyer's Belmont in 2010. I hit the Belmont big so I played something like a $800+ ticket on the following raceday. I did hit 5 of 6 there so I made some $ back.

The other was a Pick 6 carryover last year I think at Belmont too. It was at least a $1,500 ticket that I split with another horseplayer. Yeah, we hit like 2 of 6.....so that was the end of "chasing" a pick 6 anymore.

The ALL button can be useful for chaos races, but if you're using in more than 1 leg, I think you're better off skipping IMO
tbwinner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 10:32 PM   #4
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by tbwinner View Post
I am up lifetime in pick 4s and up only because of a single. I hit a 4K+ pick 4 because of a single that I owned that won nicely at 9-2. Funny, it was a low level claimer that I made more $ on the pick 4 wager than the purse money after paying jock and trainer.

I only play a pick 3/4+ if I have a single. As you said, it gets too expensive when you start spreading in each leg. My favorite pick 4 is when I get a solid single (that is not a prohibitive favorite) that has a "chaos" race or 2 apart of the sequence, where you can spread, and stand to cash with a 10-1+ winner apart of it.
Interesting... Thanks so much for the input.

Several times I have had good luck with the "chaos" races... Except for those times when the last horse I took off the ticket killed my sequence. But that's part of the game, no?
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 10:53 PM   #5
CBYRacer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 178
Good thread dry run,

I'm a relative novice to multi-race wagers (so weight my opinion accordingly ) and generally won't play unless I have a strong opinion in at least 1 (but ideally 2 or more of the races). That usually means singling a horse. Doing so will give you coverage in the more chaotic races to potentially hit a longshot. It would be even better if your single happened to be a bit contrarian.

Curious as to others opinion on this as well.
CBYRacer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 11:07 PM   #6
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBYRacer View Post
Good thread dry run,

I'm a relative novice to multi-race wagers (so weight my opinion accordingly ) and generally won't play unless I have a strong opinion in at least 1 (but ideally 2 or more of the races). That usually means singling a horse. Doing so will give you coverage in the more chaotic races to potentially hit a longshot. It would be even better if your single happened to be a bit contrarian.

Curious as to others opinion on this as well.
See?

I am glad I asked.

On Friday, I played both of the Pick 4s at Arlington. I won the first Pick 4 with 3 horses in each race. I won, but I lost a few dollars. It was chalky, and my price horses didn't show up.

In the second Pick 4 at Arlington, I got an 8/1 which got me a profit of $260+. (Not a huge kill by any stretch, but it was a win.) I also picked 3 horses per race.

I then played the Pick 4 at Charles Town (3, 2, ALL, 2) and won $60+. The ALL race got me a 22/1 winner. Unfortunately, the final leg had a 1/9 winner. (Wasn't near 1/9 when I put in my ticket.)

Then I played the late Pick 4 at Charles Town, three horses in each race, tried to beat a 1/5. I got through it, but I lost a few dollars in spite of an 8/1 winner. The other races were too chalky and included a 1/5 winner I didn't anticipate.

I'm just not convinced you have to single to make a decent profit in the shorter sequentials. Which is why I asked.

Very much looking forward to more feedback.

Last edited by dryrunguy; 09-13-2020 at 11:22 PM.
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 11:24 PM   #7
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBYRacer View Post
Good thread dry run,

I'm a relative novice to multi-race wagers (so weight my opinion accordingly ) and generally won't play unless I have a strong opinion in at least 1 (but ideally 2 or more of the races). That usually means singling a horse. Doing so will give you coverage in the more chaotic races to potentially hit a longshot. It would be even better if your single happened to be a bit contrarian.

Curious as to others opinion on this as well.
P.S.--I am a novice, too. Maybe we can learn from one another. Or at least I can learn from you.
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 11:43 PM   #8
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
I spread my wagers in accordance with my opinion of the profitability potential of each individual race. If my handicapping opinion coincides with that of the public's, and I can bring no added insight to the given race, then a single may be the chosen option...or I may elect to refrain from betting altogether. But if I don't like the favorite in the race, then the horizontal wager presents more value potential...and a wider net should be the tool of choice.

IMO...our betting decisions can't be made by pre-conceived "formula thinking". We should be flexible, and treat each race individually with its particular risk/reward aspect always in mind.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-13-2020, 11:50 PM   #9
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I spread my wagers in accordance with my opinion of the profitability potential of each individual race. If my handicapping opinion coincides with that of the public's, and I can bring no added insight to the given race, then a single may be the chosen option...or I may elect to refrain from betting altogether. But if I don't like the favorite in the race, then the horizontal wager presents more value potential...and a wider net should be the tool of choice.

IMO...our betting decisions can't be made by pre-conceived "formula thinking". We should be flexible, and treat each race individually with its particular risk/reward aspect always in mind.
Totally agreed.

In sequential wagering, though, there's just one problem... You don't know what the public is going to do when you are predicting races in advance. Every now and then you can predict it. But there are still times when you're left asking yourself, "What the **** just happened?!?!?!?"

There's nothing you can do about that. You can only try to get better at predicting it, especially at certain tracks.

Last edited by dryrunguy; 09-13-2020 at 11:52 PM.
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 12:13 AM   #10
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
Totally agreed.

In sequential wagering, though, there's just one problem... You don't know what the public is going to do when you are predicting races in advance. Every now and then you can predict it. But there are still times when you're left asking yourself, "What the **** just happened?!?!?!?"

There's nothing you can do about that. You can only try to get better at predicting it, especially at certain tracks.
Every now and then you can predict what? The favorite in an upcoming race? Handicap a race with your handicapping method of choice, and your top selection will end up as the favorite about 85% of the time...even if you are a novice.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 06:53 AM   #11
tbwinner
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,021
Quote:
Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
Totally agreed.

In sequential wagering, though, there's just one problem... You don't know what the public is going to do when you are predicting races in advance. Every now and then you can predict it. But there are still times when you're left asking yourself, "What the **** just happened?!?!?!?"

There's nothing you can do about that. You can only try to get better at predicting it, especially at certain tracks.

Also can depend on the ML maker at the track. Some players may include or exclude horses based on the ML (players that handicap "on the go" so when making a pick 4 may not devote the time if necessary to those later legs).

I think I remember someone making a comment once that people tend to spread in the last leg in a pick 4 because they "don't want to lose" if they hit the first 3. Yeah, I could see this. If anything, this will inflate the payout on a favorite in the last leg as you have more $$ spreading to the other runners.
tbwinner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 07:48 AM   #12
pandy
Registered User
 
pandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
You don't need a single, it depends on the sequence. Some players only play the Pick 4's that look the most competitive because they want to try for the bigger payoffs, and in that case, they may be using several horses in each race or even something like 2-4-4-6, which would be $96 for 50 cent wagers. If you think the Pick 4 looks wide open, there's nothing wrong with a ticket like that.
pandy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 10:00 AM   #13
ucancallmemrlucky
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 6,955
Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
You don't need a single, it depends on the sequence. Some players only play the Pick 4's that look the most competitive because they want to try for the bigger payoffs, and in that case, they may be using several horses in each race or even something like 2-4-4-6, which would be $96 for 50 cent wagers. If you think the Pick 4 looks wide open, there's nothing wrong with a ticket like that.
Agreed, I've hit pick 3's/4's in similar fashions by singling a standout and building a ticket like 3x4x1x5 for $30. It depends on how much you want to wager and how deep into a wide open race you're willing to go.
ucancallmemrlucky is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 10:12 AM   #14
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I spread my wagers in accordance with my opinion of the profitability potential of each individual race. If my handicapping opinion coincides with that of the public's, and I can bring no added insight to the given race, then a single may be the chosen option...or I may elect to refrain from betting altogether. But if I don't like the favorite in the race, then the horizontal wager presents more value potential...and a wider net should be the tool of choice.

IMO...our betting decisions can't be made by pre-conceived "formula thinking". We should be flexible, and treat each race individually with its particular risk/reward aspect always in mind.


Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
You don't need a single, it depends on the sequence. Some players only play the Pick 4's that look the most competitive because they want to try for the bigger payoffs, and in that case, they may be using several horses in each race or even something like 2-4-4-6, which would be $96 for 50 cent wagers. If you think the Pick 4 looks wide open, there's nothing wrong with a ticket like that.



Singles seem to make a lot of sense when you feel that one strong fav or public choice is the only horse worth betting.

If you are singling long-shots, you probably are using the 4,5,6 race multi as an extension of your primary play into the 'Win' and more basic exotics pools. In these cases, you should be advising me, not vice-versa!

If you feel that several contenders are all equally worth betting, then you are probably out of your element, to force a single of a horse in order to fit 'formula thinking' or budget.


**Tomorrow race 1 and race7 at Kentucky Downs have early/late Pick-5s
would be cool to see some tickets
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-14-2020, 12:05 PM   #15
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,526
I don't think about betting horizontals (or any other bet for that matter) as strategy problems. I think of them as handicapping and math problems. I want every combination on my overall ticket to have a positive expectation (or at least be very close to neutral for a net of positive). That's the way I structure the bet.

If that means singling 1-2 horses that's fine.

If I hate a couple of favorites and spread a little against them because I don't have a strong positive opinion that's fine.

If the only way to do it is either too much money or likely to produce long losing streaks too much for my bankroll and psychology to handle, then I don't play that bet.

I'm NOT trying to figure out how to cash the bet or how to make a score. I'm trying to figure out if there is any way to get better value out of the exotic bets than simply making win bets on the horses I think may present some value.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-14-2020 at 12:10 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:05 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.