Bob Baffert's recent runners

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

What's the difference whether he's being investigated or not, his horses are either running holes in the wind or they're flat...when Game on Dude struggled to win, the red flag went up for me. That flag will remain up until i see fit.

Well, the theory here is that Baffert "stopped winning" once he was being scrutinized. That theory falls flat when one realizes the official scrutiny began long before anything hit the press...thus, if his recent "coldness" is due to the scrutiny, it should have started much earlier...

That's the difference.

[PaceAdvantage]

And please don't anyone try and label me a Baffert defender...I've pointed out more than once his NYT "starts per medication violation" numbers...which, according to the NYT, were horrendous...the only two trainers worse than Baffert on the list were Ness and Dutrow...

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Well, the theory here is that Baffert "stopped winning" once he was being scrutinized. That theory falls flat when one realizes the official scrutiny began long before anything hit the press...thus, if his recent "coldness" is due to the scrutiny, it should have started much earlier...

That's the difference.

How do we possibly know when he knew he was under scrutiny? It sure seems a strange coincidence, and I don't believe in coincidence.

[Gallop58]

Originally Posted by Valento

Glad you clarified this because I was seriously starting to wonder.

Sorry I'm not very good with the 's...
Was supposed to be a friendly poke not a mugging or takedown!
Back in my hole...

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Valento

Today, he had a 3-5 firster run like he was carrying a piano. I'll bet he hasn't had that happen on a 3-5 or less debut runner the entire SA meet.

I looked it up....he has had 4 horses debut at .60-1 in the last 3 years. Three of them won easily and the other ran 2nd to Reneesgotzip (who I think is a Breeders Cup winner) and then came back to win the next two by 11 1/2 and 3 1/2.

Today, his horse was never in the race and finished 4th.

In the San Juan, his 6-5 favorite ran dead last beaten 19 lengths. He was coming off a mile and a half blow out win. Now, today was on the grass so it could be that he didn't take to the turf.

For what is worth, he had 30 runners go off at 6-5 or less at Santa Anita this meet. 15 of them won and 26 of the 30 ran in the exacta (87%). Only 4 ran out of the money. Then, today, back to back out of the money without threatening.

It looks worth tracking now.

[nijinski]

Baffert has never been shy or evasive with the public .
While other Cal trainers were worried about the ban on
steroids when it was coming years back . Baffert was very open
with his opinion and how he used them when he felt a particular horse
needed it. He didn't do it Dutrow style but he did explain his opinion.
We discussed here before .
The last thing the man needs after a brush with death , is the stress of these allegations hanging over his head .

[Gallop58]

Originally Posted by Valento

I looked it up....he has had 4 horses debut at .60-1 in the last 3 years. Three of them won easily and the other ran 2nd to Reneesgotzip (who I think is a Breeders Cup winner) and then came back to win the next two by 11 1/2 and 3 1/2.

Today, his horse was never in the race and finished 4th.

In the San Juan, his 6-5 favorite ran dead last beaten 19 lengths. He was coming off a mile and a half blow out win. Now, today was on the grass so it could be that he didn't take to the turf.

For what is worth, he had 30 runners go off at 6-5 or less at Santa Anita this meet. 15 of them won and 26 of the 30 ran in the exacta (87%). Only 4 ran out of the money. Then, today, back to back out of the money without threatening.

It looks worth tracking now.

Well somehow you're bringing out the worst in me today...
I won't argue the stats, but the 2 examples are a stretch IMHO.
Did you check the breeding on .6 to 1? That wasn't Baffert, that was Momma. Also blew the break. If it had gotten up for 2nd would it be included in the evidence?...
And the other one is at a mile and 3/4. Baffert! At a mile and 3/4... On the GRASS... So yes, I'd go with the forgiveness line of reasoning
You're free to think what you want, but this is what I was talking about when I said, I'd look at each horse individually...

To each his own.

[MightBeSosa]

Big diff in heat between investigation and front page headlines.

Probably about the same as a warm sunny day and a Sauna.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Baffert has never been shy or evasive with the public .
While other Cal trainers were worried about the ban on
steroids when it was coming years back . Baffert was very open
with his opinion and how he used them when he felt a particular horse
needed it. He didn't do it Dutrow style but he did explain his opinion.
We discussed here before .
The last thing the man needs after a brush with death , is the stress of these allegations hanging over his head .

and? Not sure how this matters here.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Gallop58

Well somehow you're bringing out the worst in me today...
I won't argue the stats, but the 2 examples are a stretch IMHO.
Did you check the breeding on .6 to 1? That wasn't Baffert, that was Momma. Also blew the break. If it had gotten up for 2nd would it be included in the evidence?...
And the other one is at a mile and 3/4. Baffert! At a mile and 3/4... On the GRASS... So yes, I'd go with the forgiveness line of reasoning
You're free to think what you want, but this is what I was talking about when I said, I'd look at each horse individually...

To each his own.

You would need to do the same "subjective" analysis on each of his other 30 .60-1 shots to make proper conclusions.

I think you are trying too hard to prove or disprove something. Can't you sit back and say "hmmm, interesting, guess I'll pay attention to it" or does everything have to be a black and white absolute?

I'm don't stand on either side of this argument. I just find it compelling. If he starts winning at the normal Baffert clip, then it was simply a blip. If he continues to have this run, then it was a start to a trend that is worth adding into your handicapping.

[bob60566]

Baffert's horses seem to win very high % on layoffs?.

[MNslappy]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

Big diff in heat between investigation and front page headlines.

That's what I was thinking.

"A spokesman for the California Horse Racing Board, said an investigator was assigned to help Rick Arthur, the equine medical director for the state, and researchers from U.C. Davis review the deaths." (from the NY TIMES)

I would imagine for a guy like Baffert that Rick Arthur and some researchers from UC Davis looking into you probably aren't nearly as worrisome as the New York Times article was.

[Not4Love]

I agree with what you are suggesting. Is there a direct correlation ? He..!! YES...

If you don't believe there is? Good luck playing his horses!!

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by Valento

and? Not sure how this matters here.

Since there's a conspiracy brewing , I thought I'd throw in some thoughts
on BB . I not only think he's as open and honest as it gets . I don't think
at this point in his career or life , he needs to be tampering with anything that would alter a race . if his percentages are winding down now. Why
can't that be a coincidence?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Well, the theory here is that Baffert "stopped winning" once he was being scrutinized. That theory falls flat when one realizes the official scrutiny began long before anything hit the press...thus, if his recent "coldness" is due to the scrutiny, it should have started much earlier...

That's the difference.

I think Valento's theory is that there might be some relationship between the announcement and the cold streak and not the behind the scenes stuff that the public didnt know about.

I don't care what the reason is why his horses are carrying piano's around on their backs, i just know that they are....and until Baffert gets back to the 'baffert of old' i'll keep betting against him when he's a really short price.