the 'Morning Line' is supposed to 'cap the Public, not be a 'Selection'!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

This is from HTR ...correct?

Nope.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Well, I do.

It is a major component of making an accurate prediction of what the odds will be (or should be).

So much so, that only in extreme cases does the tote board come into play.

As a very learned and data-driven horse racing guru said to me several years ago, "I wish I could find a single pedigree factor that does as good a job as the morning line at picking winners or producing profit."

I use it also. I seem to remember you saying that the top three or four ML picks were more predictive than BRIS' power numbers, or whatever they call it. Ron Tiller's short study showing that roughly 70% of the top ML favorites wind up as the actual(tote) favorite. So if tracks' favorites are winning at the 33-38% rate historically, then doesn't that translate to the ML top pick roughly winning 23% to 26.6% of the time? I don't see how that can't be useful, for verticals or horizontal plays.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Nope.

Are you stalking ALL my posts?

If so , I'm reporting you....

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to Jim Cramer but Jim has said that many times re first time starters. It drove him nuts.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Yes, I was.

Some of Jim's ideas are just killer. His approach for producing pace numbers is beyond anything I have ever seen - including my own.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Which serious horseplayer these days uses the morning line anymore.

It’s an archaic relic.

Allan

Is everyone a "Serious" player?
Some of you guys really get to me sometimes. Complaining about one thing or another.

Why not get out of your personnel bubble and perhaps think about those who are new to the game. They have to start somewhere! So why not the M/L? Imagine yourself going to the track, OTB or whatever for the first time without some basic information. You’d be lost and probably give up the game in a heartbeat.

So, you experts may not need a M/L, but lets not kid ourselves in believing that it has no value to someone else.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Is everyone a "Serious" player?
Some of you guys really get to me sometimes. Complaining about one thing or another.

Why not get out of your personnel bubble and perhaps think about those who are new to the game. They have to start somewhere! So why not the M/L? Imagine yourself going to the track, OTB or whatever for the first time without some basic information. You’d be lost and probably give up the game in a heartbeat.

So, you experts may not need a M/L, but lets not kid ourselves in believing that it has no value to someone else.

Thank you!!!

And the serious player can take an advantage where the Morning Line is questionable

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing MLO favorite versus actual tote board favorite. A quick check of yesterday's cards validated the data is correct.

Data is for Jan 1 2019 through yesterday June 13

These are the tracks where 70% or more of the MLO favorites end up being the tote favorites

Trk     MLO Fav that are Tote Fav     Races     % of MLO Fav that are Tote Fav
AQU	883	                      1193        74
MTH	473                            650        73
BEL	625                            882        71
PLN      79                            112        71
AZD	115                            162        71
LRC	160	                       226        71
CT     1292                           1830        71
DMR	292                            414        71
LA	377                            531        71
RP	425                            604        70
SAR	290                            414        70
TAM     1126                          1619        70

Usual stipulations apply. Field sizes, competitiveness of fields, size of gap between MLO favorite and other horses, MLO values (4/5 versus 3/1 MLO favorite), MLO line over 100% (sometimes by a lot), etc.

Also, we all know that MLO are not the same as probabilities a horse will win based on a model, converted to odds. My impression is all MLO makers are not cut from the same cloth as David Aragona. There are no doubt different levels of competence as well as different philosophies of making MLO. If the MLO maker is good, like David Aragona is, there could be a feedback loop where the MLO influence the final odds. Hard to do an experiment on this but the statistical whiz kids on this board could (and maybe have already) probably answer this question.

I'm not sure the best way to evaluate MLO, as a set of numbers whose primary purpose is to roughly predict tote odds. One can measure the rankings of one versus the other (as in measuring MLO favorites versus actual tote favorites) and the closeness of fit of MLO favorites versus actual tote favorites (2/1 on MLO versus 4/5 on tote). Moreover, the lower the MLO, the better fit I would expect. MLO 2/1 should on average be a closer fit to the actual tote odds than MLO 15/1, notwithstanding occasional stinkers. The ubiquitous 20/1 MLO longshots are probably the least accurate number wise but may be much more accurate ranking wise (7th rank MLO , 7th rank actual tote odds, but 40/1 on tote rather than 20/1).



Ron Tiller
HDW

Hey Ron

Quick question for you when you say Morning Line Favorites are you talking about a range of odds?

I keep track of ML Favorites for NY tracks but I refer to MLs that are less than 3-1 so (2-5, 3-5, 5-2, 2-1 etc.)

When you say ML Favorites do you mean the lowest ML odds for that particular race or are you including a range maybe similar to my above example?

[cj]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Ron

Quick question for you when you say Morning Line Favorites are you talking about a range of odds?

I keep track of ML Favorites for NY tracks but I refer to MLs that are less than 3-1 so (2-5, 3-5, 5-2, 2-1 etc.)

When you say ML Favorites do you mean the lowest ML odds for that particular race or are you including a range maybe similar to my above example?

I'm going to say almost certainly he is talking about the former.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Which serious horseplayer these days uses the morning line anymore.

It’s an archaic relic.

Allan

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Well, I do.
...
So much so, that only in extreme cases does the tote board come into play.

Originally Posted by Nitro

Is everyone a "Serious" player?

...think about those who are new to the game. They have to start somewhere! So why not the M/L?

Originally Posted by RonTiller

... If the MLO maker is good, like David Aragona is, there could be a feedback loop where the MLO influence the final odds.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Variety of special situations; ('steam'/wise-guy mid-range prices that are coming down, MLFavs that nobody likes,... 'Info' on maidens, ownership syndicates that tend to bet their entries, etc... etc...),

but when none of that stuff is happening, I think it's fair to say that the ML has a bit of an 'Anchoring' effect in the betting.

You are betting a pick-5, and there's a race where there's very little to go on or horses that stand out, and the betting odds (and multi-race tickets) are going in the ballpark of the morning-line odds...

[classhandicapper]

I think I prefer not to see ML Odds because of the risk they might impact my thinking on some level I am unaware of. For example, let's say I don't know the ML Odds, take a quick look at the #1 horse, and disregard him as a serious contender. Now let's say I see him listed at 3-1 or 7/2 in the ML before I start handicapping. I think the natural inclination is to take a better look at that horse and perhaps even make a case for using him. I find that's true of live odds also. If I just start handicapping a race after the pools are opened, the live odds sometimes steer me where to focus my attention. That risks influencing my thinking.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think I prefer not to see ML Odds because of the risk they might impact my thinking on some level I am unaware of. For example, let's say I don't know the ML Odds, take a quick look at the #1 horse, and disregard him as a serious contender. Now let's say I see him listed at 3-1 or 7/2 in the ML before I start handicapping. I think the natural inclination is to take a better look at that horse and perhaps even make a case for using him. I find that's true of live odds also. If I just start handicapping a race after the pools are opened, the live odds sometimes steer me where to focus my attention. That risks influencing my thinking.

I'm the opposite....

I like to see ML but not use it in my software outputs....

Then I have a good starting point to "value"

[RonTiller]

This data is not from HTR. HDW provides the data files for HTR and is a Value Added Reseller of Equibase data.

The statistics are for the morning line favorite in each race, i.e. the horse in each race with the lowest morning line odds, regardless of what those odds are (1/5 or 6/1).

Broken down by MLO values (again, since Jan 1 2019):

AQU	0.20	3	3	100
AQU	0.40	6	6	100
AQU	0.50	6	6	100
AQU	0.60	24	24	100
AQU	0.80	51	54	94
AQU	1.00	64	68	94
AQU	1.20	73	86	85
AQU	1.40	92	102	90
AQU	1.50	1	1	100
AQU	1.60	120	162	74
AQU	1.80	80	116	69
AQU	2.00	107	161	66
AQU	2.50	118	183	64
AQU	3.00	69	116	59
AQU	3.50	44	70	63
AQU	4.00	16	21	76
AQU	4.50	4	6	67
AQU	5.00	4	6	67
AQU	6.00	1	2	50

TAM	0.20	1	1	100
TAM	0.40	1	1	100
TAM	0.60	2	2	100
TAM	0.80	4	4	100
TAM	1.00	9	9	100
TAM	1.20	17	19	89
TAM	1.40	35	36	97
TAM	1.50	39	39	100
TAM	1.60	71	81	88
TAM	1.80	76	91	84
TAM	2.00	259	342	76
TAM	2.50	369	543	68
TAM	3.00	188	336	56
TAM	3.50	60	107	56
TAM	4.00	7	14	50
TAM	4.50	2	10	20
TAM	5.00	0	1	0
TAM	6.00	0	2	0
TAM	8.00	1	3	33
TAM	12.00	1	2	50

SA	0.20	1	1	100
SA	0.40	5	5	100
SA	0.60	7	7	100
SA	0.80	40	40	100
SA	1.00	6	6	100
SA	1.20	57	63	90
SA	1.40	15	21	71
SA	1.60	113	140	81
SA	1.80	150	192	78
SA	2.00	151	231	65
SA	2.50	275	416	66
SA	3.00	92	160	58
SA	3.50	54	105	51
SA	4.00	10	19	53
SA	4.50	0	3	0
SA	5.00	3	5	60
SA	6.00	2	3	67

TP	0.60	3	3	100
TP	0.80	5	5	100
TP	1.00	10	10	100
TP	1.20	22	23	96
TP	1.40	19	19	100
TP	1.60	22	24	92
TP	1.80	25	29	86
TP	2.00	100	127	79
TP	2.50	115	169	68
TP	3.00	124	202	61
TP	3.50	41	85	48
TP	4.00	20	45	44
TP	4.50	3	6	50
TP	5.00	4	11	36

It appears that 2.5 is the mode value (most prevalent) for every track I looked at. Also, the lower values are more likely to be the original MLO favorite instead of being the MLO favorite because the original scratched.

You can see the peculiarities of individual tracks and MLO makers. At Aqu over 50% of the MLO favorites are < 2/1. At TP only 15% of the MLO favorites are < 2. Because of this, being <2/1 is more of a big deal at TP than Aqu and TP ends up with the highest percentage of tote favorites when MLO is < 2/1.

This is the same set of stats for MLO favorite < 2:

TP	106	113	94
FON	12	13	92
OP	138	153	90
TAM	255	283	90
DMR	55	62	89
CD	126	143	88
KEE	44	50	88
MTH	201	232	87
SAR	118	137	86
SUN	72	84	86
ARP	19	22	86
LRL	580	679	85

Aqu is no longer near the top of the list, because over 50% of MLO favorites there are < 2/1. Their line is uniformly very predictive at all levels so when segmented this way, they fall short of tracks whose MLO favorites are more heavily concentrated >= 2/1.

The more I look at this stuff, the more impressed I am with David Aragona's work. I do agree with Dave that MLO can be valuable but that is another issue entirely. And I also agree that MLO provide an anchor for many people, not just complete novices. I remember being in Sam's Town with Jim Cramer and I challenged him to handicap the upcoming mule race. He had no data at all so I figured he had no chance. He did have the Sam's Town scratch sheet. When you have nothing to work with, go with #1 MLO mule. Plus, he had heard of that mule somewhere. I think it was like the Secretariat of Mules at the time. I guess I don't need to finish this. That mule won, Jim won his bet, Ron gave up trying to trip Jim up. Lesson learned.

I wish I had more time to look at all this data from every which angle but I don't. Sigh...

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Thank you!!!

And the serious player can take an advantage where the Morning Line is questionable

Actually I don't agree with that. As a serious player myself I prefer the line is as accurate as possible.

Let's say I LOVE a horse that I'm sure will be 5-1. He gets lined at 12-1. Opens at 5-1 and now appears like a "steam" horse and here comes the bandwagon. Ends up an unplayable price.

If originally lined properly at 5-1. He might have had a chance to stay that price.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Actually I don't agree with that. As a serious player myself I prefer the line is as accurate as possible.

Let's say I LOVE a horse that I'm sure will be 5-1. He gets lined at 12-1. Opens at 5-1 and now appears like a "steam" horse and here comes the bandwagon. Ends up an unplayable price.

If originally lined properly at 5-1. He might have had a chance to stay that price.

This can work the other way too, NO? A horse who figures to be 12-1 gets written up at 5-1...and the onlookers who value the ML will now consider this horse a bargain when they see it on the board at the "overlaid" price.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Actually I don't agree with that. As a serious player myself I prefer the line is as accurate as possible.

Let's say I LOVE a horse that I'm sure will be 5-1. He gets lined at 12-1. Opens at 5-1 and now appears like a "steam" horse and here comes the bandwagon. Ends up an unplayable price.

If originally lined properly at 5-1. He might have had a chance to stay that price.

Come on Vic! I’m a serious player too, but your description is loaded with all sorts of generalities.

What about the obvious condition changes that affect the opening and closing odds line beyond any M/L odds?
A) A single Scratch in a race – can throw the entire M/L out of kilter
B) Dramatic changes in the track condition – the M/L is normally based on a fast/firm conditions.
C) Obvious pre-race physicality issues – No M/L developer will have that information –
Unless of course he called the CA physic hot-line. (Who BTW refuses to provide winning lottery numbers)

Your horse may have been bet down individually, but if it looked that good there are still many ways to take advantage with some Vertical bets. I’ve turned quite a few odds on choices into Top Keys for some excellent high value Tris & Supers.