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Old 03-07-2020, 01:23 PM   #1
dilanesp
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coronavirus and the TC

150,000, or whatever the real number is, people at the Derby seems less than optimal. They canceled SxSW yesterday. Any possibility that the TC may be affected?
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Old 03-07-2020, 01:23 PM   #2
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Old 03-07-2020, 01:35 PM   #3
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150,000, or whatever the real number is, people at the Derby seems less than optimal. They canceled SxSW yesterday. Any possibility that the TC may be affected?
Right now, can anyone answer with anything other than "Maybe"?
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Old 03-07-2020, 06:59 PM   #4
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:28 PM   #5
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The flu has killed 18000 people in this country so far his year. So I don't know why people getting so panicked over the CoronaVirus.
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Old 03-08-2020, 01:23 AM   #6
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Seasonal flu for the most part is well over by Derby time.

Covid-19 just adds to the burden of the last month that seasonal flu has influence, which is usually around end of March.

If cases are still trending upwards at beginning of April, then I might offer a thought. My hunch is that it will be short-lived and hardly virulent by then, unless it behaves completely differently than most viruses.
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Old 03-08-2020, 01:48 PM   #7
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Coronavirus is a lot more serious than a lot of people in this thread believe. Check out the recent news from Italy if you don't believe me.

Numerous large gatherings of people are being canceled, and rightfully so. I don't see how the Derby goes forward in its traditional form. They might have to run it in front of an empty grandstand.
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Old 03-08-2020, 02:08 PM   #8
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Seasonal flu for the most part is well over by Derby time.

Covid-19 just adds to the burden of the last month that seasonal flu has influence, which is usually around end of March.

If cases are still trending upwards at beginning of April, then I might offer a thought. My hunch is that it will be short-lived and hardly virulent by then, unless it behaves completely differently than most viruses.
Read The Black Swan and you may change your focus on that confidence of this acting like all that have gone before....In the book the author gives a theoretical to ponder with the example of a turkey who is fed and cared for very well, everyday. IT assumes that this will go on forever since ALL EVIDENCE points to a repetition of the same activities daily as far as it can remember. THEN COMES THANKSGIVING and ALL that evidence is not worth a thing.

How would you KNOW how it will behave as it is well known as a novel NEW virus and, for example, the major mortality of the Spanish Flu was NOT in the initial infection but in 1919 when it MUTATED and no one can predict that with any degree of accuracy.

Mutation increases as more cases confront the virus.....
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Old 03-08-2020, 05:18 PM   #9
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Read The Black Swan ...
Good book.


I've got "Derby-Fever-20".
Strong, prepared, and optimistic.
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Old 03-08-2020, 05:50 PM   #10
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Good book.


I've got "Derby-Fever-20".
Strong, prepared, and optimistic.

Very good book!
Love the chapter about Elmer J. Fudd.

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Old 03-08-2020, 06:40 PM   #11
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The flu has killed 18000 people in this country so far his year. So I don't know why people getting so panicked over the CoronaVirus.
Because per the CDC flu kills 1 in 1000 and coronavirus kills 1 in 33? I mean, this might be done in a month but pretty sure we don't want 35 million to get this like got the flu in 2018-19. Sorry to bring reason into this---back to wherever you get your news.
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Old 03-08-2020, 06:55 PM   #12
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Because per the CDC flu kills 1 in 1000 and coronavirus kills 1 in 33? I mean, this might be done in a month but pretty sure we don't want 35 million to get this like got the flu in 2018-19. Sorry to bring reason into this---back to wherever you get your news.

The flu kills all groups. This Corona is basically killing the elderly and people that already have underlying health problems. I'll worry when Corona kills more in this country than the flu. I think there's more to fear from panic than the Corona.
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Old 03-08-2020, 11:04 PM   #13
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Read The Black Swan and you may change your focus on that confidence of this acting like all that have gone before.
I am not sure where I expressed any "confidence" in what I said. I offered a layperson's opinion.

TBH, I really only listen to people who have MD and/or Ph.D. after their names who have training in medicine, infectious diseases, epidemiology, etc.

This is a horse racing forum so I suggest everyone take what everyone posts with a grain of salt. Mine included.

As for my confidence (???), let's put it this way: Doubtful I will attend Rebel Stakes with influx of 35-50K people, coming in from all over. Because I am a caregiver, and because I am even careful about seasonal flu anyway. Any illness that plays Continental Hopscotch is one I avoid.

There are no confirmed cases yet in Arkansas. However, with an incubation period of about 14 days, I won't know til it shows up on the John Hopkins map, which may be days or weeks from now:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

If it hasn't resolved by KY Derby Day, I am the kind of person who would not attend that, either.

Last edited by clicknow; 03-08-2020 at 11:12 PM.
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Old 03-08-2020, 11:14 PM   #14
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They canceled the upcoming Indian Wells tennis tournament due to the virus. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not taking any chances I don't have to take. It just isn't worth it. I doubt I'll go to Thunder games either.
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Old 03-08-2020, 11:37 PM   #15
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I am not only in the over 60 category, but have family members who are immuno-supressed and/or elderly with health problems who I do visit.

Therefore, my tolerance for exposing myself to wider audience of humanity is probably very different than many of you.

Of course, even if I were 30 and those other factors were not in place, I would of course stay away from elderly people if I was out and about a lot in big crowds, just to keep THEM safe. In other words, if you are volunteering in a nursing home, you kinda have to hold yourself to a "higher standard", but this is common sense.
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