Superfecta questions.

[teddy]

Not much recent info on superfectas. I am playing superfectas with long shots as my keys. Ones with a better than avg performance from my numbers. Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time. Bad ideal...???? Its a really low percentage but big payoff tickets. So deep pockets a must. I get about 10 races a day to play. 5 percent winners. if I key one position.

[lamboguy]

i don't like exotic wagering, but if i had to play supers, i would only go in more than one position if the horse shows that he does not need the lead.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by teddy

Not much recent info on superfectas. I am playing superfectas with long shots as my keys. Ones with a better than avg performance from my numbers. Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time. Bad ideal...???? Its a really low percentage but big payoff tickets. So deep pockets a must. I get about 10 races a day to play. 5 percent winners. if I key one position.

I think you would have to feel VERY confident if you were to key in 3 spots. I have never done that before, but I feel like doing only 1 or 2 spots. For example: 1/2,3,4/2,3,4/2,3,4 or 1/2/3,4,5/3,4,5

Do if it feels right. Otherwise, structure your supers like you want them.

Good Luck!

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by teddy

Not much recent info on superfectas. I am playing superfectas with long shots as my keys. Ones with a better than avg performance from my numbers. Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time. Bad ideal...???? Its a really low percentage but big payoff tickets. So deep pockets a must. I get about 10 races a day to play. 5 percent winners. if I key one position.

I think the other new thread regarding style of play is very relevant here. 5% winners will mean long losing streaks. Some personalities can deal with the wild swings in bankroll. Others would need to do the keys in multiple places because their overall handicapping mindset would suffer with those streaks and seeing their key finish in other positions than the one they selected.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by teddy

Not much recent info on superfectas. I am playing superfectas with long shots as my keys. Ones with a better than avg performance from my numbers. Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time. Bad ideal...???? Its a really low percentage but big payoff tickets. So deep pockets a must. I get about 10 races a day to play. 5 percent winners. if I key one position.

Depending on what you're spending per race, another option is to Tier your base wagers such as..

$2 SFC- A / CD / B / CDE -
$1 SFC- AB / AC / BCD / DE
$.50 SFC- AC / AD / ADE / BC
$.20 SFC- BD / ACE/ ABDF / BCDE
$.10 SFC- BCE / ABDE / ACDE / ABCDE
$.10 SFC- ED / BCE / ABDE / BCDEF

All of these for the same race...put the longer shots near the front in your $.10 and $.20 SFC's.


Good Luck!!

[Robert Fischer]

Track Name: Parx (PHD)
Race: 4
Pool: SU
Selections: 6, 8/2, 6, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9/3, 9
Wager Amount: $0.10
Wager Total: $3.20


This example = are two long shots who I think have a chance in hell of running 4th.

I strongly dislike the , so I will not use those on my ticket (3rd=ALL except 1,7)

Leaning against the (not in my exacta)= So I exclude one of the shorter priced horses, in favor of a mid-ranged price horse (the ) 2nd.

If I am very lucky will hit the exacta, and will run 3rd and 4th.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Track Name: Parx (PHD)
Race: 4
Pool: SU
Selections: 6, 8/2, 6, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9/3, 9
Wager Amount: $0.10
Wager Total: $3.20


This example = are two long shots who I think have a chance in hell of running 4th.

I strongly dislike the , so I will not use those on my ticket (3rd=ALL except 1,7)

Leaning against the (not in my exacta)= So I exclude one of the shorter priced horses, in favor of a mid-ranged price horse (the ) 2nd.

If I am very lucky will hit the exacta, and will run 3rd and 4th.

and seeing that is hot and is cold on the board , I'll add a single of as well:


Track Name: Parx (PHD)
Race: 4
Pool: SU
Selections: 8/2, 4, 6/2, 4, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Wager Amount: $0.10
Wager Total: $2.40

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by teddy

Not much recent info on superfectas. I am playing superfectas with long shots as my keys. Ones with a better than avg performance from my numbers. Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time. Bad ideal...???? Its a really low percentage but big payoff tickets. So deep pockets a must. I get about 10 races a day to play. 5 percent winners. if I key one position.

I don't think there is a one size fits all answer to your question. First determine what your opinion is on the race. It could be that you hate the favorite and expect it to run out of the top 2. In your example you like some longshots, but keying your longshot in 4 different spots is not really a good betable opinion. I would try to restrict using it in more than 2 spots unless, of course, the favorite has no shot at hitting the board.

[jay68802]

This guy could clunk up in the super at big odds.

Not much of a opinion.

This guy can win at big odds. Time to play in the top two spots.

Top two only. Anything can run third or fourth.

[citygoat]

AC/BCD/ABCD/ABCD ten cent super cost $!

1. AB/BC/CD/DE ten cent super cost $.50

Two ways I like to bet super

[Bennie]

My question to you would be how big are the fields that you would play and even at 5% or 1 of 20 if the payouts are "big" what is your ROI? I don't play them often but when I do I usually only go 5 or 6 deep and structure as follows with A being the shortest price. The odds on the others would not matter just where I feel the order of finish would be. BC with ABC with ABCD with ABCDE/F. Also you say you have a 5% win rate, what is the % of running 2nd? Playing the long shot for 3rd or 4th leaves the opportunity for the 2 short priced horses to run 1st/2nd and even with a long shot filling the super it could come back short. You should also keep track of races where you have a strong opinion that the favorite or second choice can be beat.

[Fred Mertz]

A friend told me to try it this way. I don't like dime or 50 cents bets.


$1 super bet AB/AB/CD/CD. #5 horse in the 5th race always.



$4 bet.

[OverlayHunter]

Should I key in one spot or key in 3 spots. 3 spots would mean automatic losing tickets every single time.

Teddy, unless I'm misunderstanding your point, it seems to me you likely have the ability to figure this out using your past wagers (and, if not, you certainly have the ability to figure it out going forward).

At 10 races average per day, you should have enough races (or can ultimately have enough races) to go back and methodically determine how many more supers (if any) you would have won by keying in 3 spots and what the net profit or loss would be had you done that. If you don't believe you can do that objectively or if you don't have the data to figure this out with past races, start doing it going forward.

As I see it, there are 2 primary benefits and one negative outcome that may come from wagering the larger tickets (and your records will tell you whether you will benefit or have a neutral outcome or a worse outcome):

1. If you net the same dollar amount of profit whether you use the higher cost tickets or the lower cost tickets, the probable single benefit will be shorter losing streaks. If that helps psychologically, personally I would continue with the higher tickets. (Your ROI will be lower but you are netting the same profit dollars from the same races.)

2. If your losing streaks are shorter and your ROI is the same or higher (which means your net dollars are higher) that's the best outcome.

3. You end up with fewer net positive dollars or, worse, a loss - you either have to get better with the 3 spots or key only 1 spot.

[46zilzal]

Find two keys (the logical wing of the wager) and then hook them with "all" (the random wing).....RIDING THE COAT-TAILS: let logicals lead the way and let the field "ride the coat tails."

The topzacta (k=key) k/k/all/all reversed
The Splitzacta : k/all/k/all the most common outcome reversed

On the main, cheaper back up would be the midzacta: all/k/k/all
On the turf add a cheaper back up, the polarzacta: k/all/all/k

[Gerard02]

I’ve been keeping records since, August. My top four choices have been coming in the money quite a lot. My first three choices come in more often, but I’ve seen a pattern where I could play 1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4/all. I had been boxing 1-2-3-4. Hit the super only twice in November, but scored a $288 profit. Looking to use 1-2-3-4 and then cover the ALL in each slot after that. Would look like this:
1-2-3-4/all/1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4
1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4/all/1-2-3-4
And the other grouping above. I keep my first four picks in the first slot. Costs range from $9.60-14.40 for total wager depending on field size.

Right now, I’m working on the wagering part of my handicapping. I’ve hit exactas and triple, but they have been low paying and I’ve actually lost money on races where I hit the exacta, triple and Super. How’s that for bad luck. Looking for better odds, but you all know how hard it is to handicap a card only to have to let most of your races pass by because your horses are 7/5, 2-1, 6/5, 7/2. Just no money in playing low odds. The keys for my way of doing things is the Superfecta. I was boxing my four selections in the Triple, but over 36 races, my ROI was -$5.06. Not bad for a loss, but we are here to make money, not lose it and pat ourselves on the back when we lose little. I’m in the ballpark with my figures. From my past data, I’m close to nailing it. The supers are the key. Ill let you all know after December how it goes.