OP Racing Study

[CheckMark]

I am in the current stage of doing a study on the past meet held at Oaklawn Park. The screenshot is below:
Screen Shot 2019-11-13 at 6.40.04 PM.png

If you cannot read it, the information I have put into the spreadsheet are:
Date, race#er, track condition(per race), Class, distance, winner of race(with post number), Jockey, trainer, Owner, Sire, ML, Closing odds, Running style and fractions of the race.

My question is... is this going to help me with knowing:
favourable post positions, top trainers/jockeys/owners/sires in certain distances or class levels, favourable running styles in certain distances or class levels and finally how certain trainers/jockeys/owners/sires offspring/posts/running styles do in certain weather conditions
or is it just a waste of time? This will take me until (estimating) middle December to finish the entire meet and compile track bias and notes etc. I feel like this will help me, but does anyone have any suggestions on other data points to include or just to stop with it?


I will take all answers into consideration.

Thanks to all who reply

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am in the current stage of doing a study on the past meet held at Oaklawn Park. The screenshot is below:
Attachment 25877

If you cannot read it, the information I have put into the spreadsheet are:
Date, race#er, track condition(per race), Class, distance, winner of race(with post number), Jockey, trainer, Owner, Sire, ML, Closing odds, Running style and fractions of the race.

My question is... is this going to help me with knowing:
favourable post positions, top trainers/jockeys/owners/sires in certain distances or class levels, favourable running styles in certain distances or class levels and finally how certain trainers/jockeys/owners/sires offspring/posts/running styles do in certain weather conditions
or is it just a waste of time? This will take me until (estimating) middle December to finish the entire meet and compile track bias and notes etc. I feel like this will help me, but does anyone have any suggestions on other data points to include or just to stop with it?


I will take all answers into consideration.

Thanks to all who reply

Hey Check,

The image that you show are all winners is that correct?

If so, will you also capture the other finishers for each race for the attributes that you have (i.e. Date, race#er, track condition(per race), Class, distance,,,, etc.)?

It would be great to see the percentages by category based on Jockey, Trainer etc. to see what you get in terms of running style and all the other attributes

Also, for many tracks the Closing odds change while the race is running as discussed on many threads in this forum, how much weight will you give those odds as compared to the Morning Line odds?

Just want to know your thoughts seems like a terrific idea

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Check,

The image that you show are all winners is that correct?

If so, will you also capture the other finishers for each race for the attributes that you have (i.e. Date, race#er, track condition(per race), Class, distance,,,, etc.)?

It would be great to see the percentages by category based on Jockey, Trainer etc. to see what you get in terms of running style and all the other attributes

Also, for many tracks the Closing odds change while the race is running as discussed on many threads in this forum, how much weight will you give those odds as compared to the Morning Line odds?

Just want to know your thoughts seems like a terrific idea

Hey Oracle!

Yes the winners are only shown and sadly I will be only referring to the winner and not any other horse in the race. I hope to find the percentages of any data point like for example: does David Cohen do well in the sloppy track at 6 Furlongs or maybe even how does Steve Asmussen do with Mdn $77k horses going 6 furlongs or another one can be how well does the rail do when it is muddy compared to sloppy? All these questions should be answered while I am finishing up my spreadsheet study. I honestly had a hard time of knowing what some of the closing odds were (since the chart puts them in decimal form) and so I possibly messed up on that data. I will be looking at both to see how much of a percentage that the odds went up/down, but I will be looking more at the ML. Thank you for the feedback! Any questions, feel free to ask on here.

[OverlayHunter]

CM,

You wrote: "...does David Cohen do well in the sloppy track at 6 Furlongs "

Don't forget that questions like those almost certainly require more data than one meet. The horses in a stable change over time and can influence the success or failure. If the trainer has a stable of nothing but sprinters, his route stats will certainly be off if he uses routes for conditioning. If most of the horses in the stable happen not to run well in the slop, that will make the trainer's stats in the slop appear lower than what they might normally be if the trainer had a more normal distribution of horses.

The point is, a trainer's ability probably has to be viewed over a longer period than a single meet to get some confidence in your findings.

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am in the current stage of doing a study on the past meet held at Oaklawn Park. The screenshot is below:
Attachment 25877

If you cannot read it, the information I have put into the spreadsheet are:
Date, race#er, track condition(per race), Class, distance, winner of race(with post number), Jockey, trainer, Owner, Sire, ML, Closing odds, Running style and fractions of the race.

My question is... is this going to help me with knowing:
favourable post positions, top trainers/jockeys/owners/sires in certain distances or class levels, favourable running styles in certain distances or class levels and finally how certain trainers/jockeys/owners/sires offspring/posts/running styles do in certain weather conditions
or is it just a waste of time? This will take me until (estimating) middle December to finish the entire meet and compile track bias and notes etc. I feel like this will help me, but does anyone have any suggestions on other data points to include or just to stop with it?


I will take all answers into consideration.

Thanks to all who reply

Hey Check

Also maybe include the Win price as well this way you can get at average Win price and return on investment per $2 wager etc.

I guess you can even go deeper with standard deviation and means etc. per race categories

[mikesal57]

Checkmark...

A lot of work with not much in return.....

without PP's its hard to go deep into research....

What you can do is....

Delete the Headers.....

Mark one big continuous spreadsheet...

Sort by "TRAINER"

maybe you can determine...

1) type races winners are in

2) Go to jockey

3) running type horse he wins with

4) favorite dist/surface

like I said ...not much

Mike

[Tom]

For PP, you will need the field sizes - I put them into mine as 10/4 10 horses, PP 4 won. I also put in BLs at first and second calls. I add what track the winner shipped in from, and that date it last races,so I can have layoffs. I note whether the track was sealed, and if it was off the turf, but NA at OP.

The big thing I do is figure out what the pace for each final time should be, ie Randy Giles multipliers. One season's data should be enough for most distance. You probably will not have enough for 9 furlongs, but if you are interested, I will give you the multiplier for that. I then have a whole day's races in order, and how fast or slow each race was. At Aqu - this is VERY helpful info, with all the terrible rides you see there by sleeping jockeys on the front and old ladies riding behind them, scared to death to pass them.

The photo below shows Aqu main track, 1` mile races for a day in April - 4fur, 6 fur, and final variants, in 1/10ths. Big difference in the pace scenarios.

[Prof.Factor]

Checkmark - yes, it will help. New ideas will emerge along the way and those will help too. Who knows, you could develop a radical idea nobody else has. Watching elementary school students learn math in today's world makes you realize there are always new ways to tackle the same old problems.
FYI, Cohen is just as prolific on an Off track at OP as a fast track. Virtually no change in stats.

[lamboguy]

everyone tries to explain the why the horses win, if i were doing this i would probably do it in reverse. like where do the losing favorites come from? what types of weather makes it hard for certain horses to win? which are the poor trainer=jockey combinations? how bad are the turf to dirt percentages? and maybe a few other categories that i didn't list.

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

... where do the losing favorites come from? ...

+1

[JustRalph]

If you're going to do this........use a much better tool.

http://www.jcapper.com/


just my opine

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Tom

The big thing I do is figure out what the pace for each final time should be, ie Randy Giles multipliers.

Weren't those originally cj's multipliers?

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Check

Also maybe include the Win price as well this way you can get at average Win price and return on investment per $2 wager etc.

I guess you can even go deeper with standard deviation and means etc. per race categories

Oracle, I will add this column and take away the off odds since I looked back and some of my odds were off. Thanks

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

Checkmark - yes, it will help. New ideas will emerge along the way and those will help too. Who knows, you could develop a radical idea nobody else has. Watching elementary school students learn math in today's world makes you realize there are always new ways to tackle the same old problems.
FYI, Cohen is just as prolific on an Off track at OP as a fast track. Virtually no change in stats.

Hey Prof!

I hopefully can gain something from this as I can pinpoint different situations as the meet goes on! Math helps me with Excel because of all the formulas and different features to make life easier. Thank you for the Cohen stat!

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Checkmark...

A lot of work with not much in return.....

without PP's its hard to go deep into research....

What you can do is....

Delete the Headers.....

Mark one big continuous spreadsheet...

Sort by "TRAINER"

maybe you can determine...

1) type races winners are in

2) Go to jockey

3) running type horse he wins with

4) favorite dist/surface

like I said ...not much

Mike

Even easier with result charts
Good suggestion but I would like to include more info instead of less.
Thanks