"MEAL TICKET", a new "Spot-Play" (test drive-beta)

[mrroyboy]

John that is a very good horse. You made a good bet. probably a play next out unless he gets pounded to 3-5 or whatever.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by mrroyboy

John that is a very good horse. You made a good bet. probably a play next out unless he gets pounded to 3-5 or whatever.

I agree Roy, he is a "now" horse, but he is a "no big secret" horse either, haha....I always have a problem with the "now" horses, usually they are overbet for a good while, too...We will see, he has much late pace-ability tho..

best,
Johnny U.

[imofe]

Not trying to take this thread off task, so let me know if I am LK.

Mopey Corey just won at Woodbine in the 5th at 5-1. I have this horse as a 23.6 in the last race as per Mark's BPQ topic, and the horse outran the odds last time. Not sure what the breaking point would be at Woodbine, but the 1st quarter seems fast in relation to the final time.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by imofe

Not trying to take this thread off task, so let me know if I am LK.

Mopey Corey just won at Woodbine in the 5th at 5-1. I have this horse as a 23.6 in the last race as per Mark's BPQ topic, and the horse outran the odds last time. Not sure what the breaking point would be at Woodbine, but the 1st quarter seems fast in relation to the final time.

Imofe, I just got to look at this....Was busy doing home repairs all day....

After reading you post, and then turning to the Replays for Wdb tonite, I have to agree with your take on MopeyCorey....

Not sure about the Wdb breaking point pars either, as I don't bother doing them anymore...

But, if you do replays of Wdb, and you back to MC's 2d race back, that was the "eye opener".... He woke up in that race and went in 25.2 in the opening panel....After that race I marked him down on my watch list....

But even more important in the 25.2 1st quarter was the preceding opening 1/8th (which only Wdb and Mhk show locked in on screen vs. other tracks, when timing the races live) which was 12.2....!!!!...That was the tipoff for me....the 12.2 opening 1/8th....Nasty business, imo..

I wish the WEG circuit tracks would reinstate the trackus charts & timing again....They always showed the opening 1/8ths in their charts (but no longer tho).....I miss the dancing onscreen chicklets during the race as well......I wish all the track would use the trakus type of timings and the chicklets...They help you stay tuned with "ALL" the horses the whole way round...

As I said before, I don't do BPQ's that much any longer, but, what I do use is the Trackmaster's "Pace Past Perfomances"....For only minor extra cost, you get numbers that will give much greater insight into the pace of any race....

I would talk more about it, the pace PP's, but if you didn't subscribe to them, I would always try to be explaining my take on things....But if you or anyone else would sign up for them, I would, via PM, be more than willing to give you some excellent new things to think about....

As for MC, again, I missed that one big time.....He was on my watch list, and it was a perfect spot and nite for his style of running....After watching the replays, I noticed that the first 4-races were all wire to wire jobs, and he was in the 5th.... MC filled the bill and had nor real competition in that regard, plus he was a "+5" SMBX horse to boot.....Not seeing, and in a position to play that race, really pissed me off a bit.... ....Races of that ilk are at the heart of this thread....geez...

[LottaKash]

.....

[am1947]

Sir

Do not follow Wdb much but these are the last numbers I found for
Wdb Moh. They are a few yrs old as I saved them when Ray post
them awhile ago.

Track Races. AveQ1%.. StdDev.. AveTime... BPQ
WDB.. 702... 23.86%... 0.52% .... 114.8 ... 23.34%
MOH. 210... 24.04%... 0.46%..... 115.2.... 23.58%

AM

[mrroyboy]

Interesting stuff John. Would love to know more about how you are using the PacePP's. I know you are updating PIPs so love to read more

[Ray2000]

For those not familiar with the BNQ thread it's here

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=64718


Don't mean to side track your thread LK,

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Don't mean to side track your thread LK,

No problem "at all", Ray....Everything is relevant, anytime, for me at least...In fact I am glad that you found that lost "to me" thread....I enjoyed rereading it again...thx for re-posting it...

We, at the "darkside" of racing, have to take whatever we can, whenever we can, as there are so few of us here, where it is bleek, and often some very relevant points are lost due to our reluctance to cover a point or subject as they may come up, simply by courteously not wanting to "hijack" a thread, and rather not create another thread for it.....Some ideas and opinions often get lost that way, imo...

As I said previously, I was much influenced by that particular thread, and that very thread is what inspired me to resurrect and modify my original PIPs....It gave me so much to think about when trying to find quick, easy, and simple ways to analyze the pace of of a race...Being a P&P guy and all...
============================================
This passage in one of MG's posts got me to thinking much....:

Excessive pace-speed can compromise a horse's chances at almost any time in the mile. The question becomes: what is hidden and what isn't?

Race #1: :27.0, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0.... PIP= 7/000 (pip inserted after the fact)

Race #2 :27.4, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0......PIP= 8/100 (ditto)

So remember, nothing "works" in handicapping unless the other bettors overlook it. This is the potential beauty of BPQ's, and as I said in an earlier post, the BPE (breaking-point eighth) is even better hidden.(MG)

The power of using PIPs helps in this regard, the "hidden" or "almost hidden" part...JJU
=============================

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon.. ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry..

[mrroyboy]

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon.. ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry

Yes John Post away.

[imofe]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

No problem "at all", Ray....Everything is relevant, anytime, for me at least...In fact I am glad that you found that lost "to me" thread....I enjoyed rereading it again...thx for re-posting it...

We, at the "darkside" of racing, have to take whatever we can, whenever we can, as there are so few of us here, where it is bleek, and often some very relevant points are lost due to our reluctance to cover a point or subject as they may come up, simply by courteously not wanting to "hijack" a thread, and rather not create another thread for it.....Some ideas and opinions often get lost that way, imo...

As I said previously, I was much influenced by that particular thread, and that very thread is what inspired me to resurrect and modify my original PIPs....It gave me so much to think about when trying to find quick, easy, and simple ways to analyze the pace of of a race...Being a P&P guy and all...
============================================
This passage in one of MG's posts got me to thinking much....:

Excessive pace-speed can compromise a horse's chances at almost any time in the mile. The question becomes: what is hidden and what isn't?

Race #1: :27.0, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0.... PIP= 7/000 (pip inserted after the fact)

Race #2 :27.4, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0......PIP= 8/100 (ditto)

So remember, nothing "works" in handicapping unless the other bettors overlook it. This is the potential beauty of BPQ's, and as I said in an earlier post, the BPE (breaking-point eighth) is even better hidden.(MG)

The power of using PIPs helps in this regard, the "hidden" or "almost hidden" part...JJU
=============================

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon.. ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry..

I think some of the power of the BPQ is if the horse subsequently gets covered up and appears empty in the lane in what looks like a perfect trip. I remember this horse, the capper says to himself. He could not go by in the lane with that 2 hole trip. He forgets or does not calculate how stressful that 1st quarter was. Just sees no late pace.

[imofe]

Originally Posted by am1947

Sir

Do not follow Wdb much but these are the last numbers I found for
Wdb Moh. They are a few yrs old as I saved them when Ray post
them awhile ago.

Track Races. AveQ1%.. StdDev.. AveTime... BPQ
WDB.. 702... 23.86%... 0.52% .... 114.8 ... 23.34%
MOH. 210... 24.04%... 0.46%..... 115.2.... 23.58%

AM

Thanks AM. It looks like Woodbine is quite fast early ( which I think most of us suspect) and we should demand a pretty low BPQ percentage for playbacks.

[LottaKash]

.....................................

[mrroyboy]

John
I didn't know you knew about Randy Giles too. I am a big fan of his pace theories at least for T-breds. Interested to know how you apply them to Harness Racing.
In his book he talks about his data base. That section alone is worth the price of his book.
Thanks John

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by mrroyboy

John
I didn't know you knew about Randy Giles too. I am a big fan of his pace theories at least for T-breds. Interested to know how you apply them to Harness Racing.
In his book he talks about his data base. That section alone is worth the price of his book.
Thanks John

Hey Roy, actually I have a rather healthy library for all species of hoss'...

In reality tho, other than gaining a better knowledge base on how horse racing ticks, I never got as much out of many of those books as some of the other readers may have from many of them....Other than a good grounding from Al Stanley on what live running lines consist of, combined with some very useful angles that I still use to this day , most of the other handicapping books were good, in that they gave me insight to how the game works, but that was all it did for me....I am not system player at all, and most of those books touted things of that sort....On the other hand tho, three of my favorite books have all to do with the "pace aspect of racing"....My favorites are the aforementioned Randy Giles' book "Extreme Pace Handicapping"....& "Pace makes the Race" from the recently deceased Ton Hambleton, and his cohort Dick Schmidt....and Huey Mahl's book "The Race is Pace"....

Like it or not, I am a "Pace Pattern" handicapper....I know final time is important, and so are Speed Ratings, but in reality, most of the time I just use my pace numbers, which really explains things such as FT & SR, only much better, imo...

One of the most important things that I gleened from Randy Giles way of thinking was from "Pace & Race Shapes" models...

Below is a glimpse of how one may gain a better insight from a Pace Perspective....(notice PIPs = "Pace in Perspective") by learning, and the use of a good understanding of how races are actually run, pacewise, and the impact they may have in a horses next race..