*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[pandy]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

"Were Dortmund and Stellar Wind stiffed yesterday? Are their trainer setting them up for a betting score?"

That may be the single silliest example you could have produced.

The BREEDER'S CUP?? REALLY??

You honestly don't know that MOST thoroughbreds don't earn their vet, feed, stable, travel, employee, etc, etc etc, bills from the meager purses offered? You have no idea the purses have DECREASED over the years? You've never looked at a cheap claimer's past performances and noticed he was 30 or 40 to one---for 6 straight races--did nothing--then ran the worst race of his life---WENT UP IN CLASS AND WAS MAGICALLY THE 8/5 FAVORITE--AND WON THAT RACE???
That was just good handicapping?

Get real. I shouldn't have responded---have a good day

How do you validate this theory? You made up a crazy example but didn't show an actual real example. How would you apply this type of handicapping? Basically, you're going to bet horses that are coming off of bad efforts simply based on a guess that they were being set up and today is the day they're going to try? I just can't see how you could possibly win that way. Do horses get stiffed? Maybe once in a while, but that doesn't mean that you can turn a profit off it.

[Speed Figure]

When did you start promoting the top 4? you made it very clear in this post that you only care about the top 2 and not piece of the pie types?

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

We have differing ideas of basic handicapping...I look for potential winners, not piece-of-the-pie types. I'm not going to force one in---it's either all or nothing.

Every horse in the race that qualifies, is rated. One doesn't get any considerations just because he's a living breathing thoroughbred who once won a race. Why waste time on horses that don't meet minimum standards for the win? I say toss 'em out. Sure, I get burned--but not as often as you might think.

My program only POINTS OUT the top two, Speedy...but actually may rate every horse in the race---Hi to Lo.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

When did you start promoting the top 4? you made it very clear in this post that you only care about the top 2 and not piece of the pie types?

When I came out with the ABILITY FIGURE for computing Class and Speed. How did you get that I was "promoting" it? I use the top-4 in all categories to compare and see who's in the group. The top-4 Ability @ the big tracks has been nailing longshots so I kept tracking it--and for the breeder's cup decided to give that method a try.

As you can see by the results, Speedy...it's not working out as I hoped.

We never did very well at SA--that hasn't changed.

At least Top Power has a few winners over the 2 days:

[Speed Figure]

I'm just going off the posts where you said you didn't care for programs that listed the top 4 now your listing the top 4.

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

LOL ..it's not the Bris Summary, Light...those are the top two Power numbers. I don't really care for programs that list a TOP 4 or whatever. I have the top two with total power points (which I didn't bother typing out) for exactas--for the user to make the call....or dutch betting. If the top two are way out ahead of the rest in points--the exacta is an easy call.

The best exacta situation is one mid priced horse/ with one short-price---boxed. At least in my experience.

Many times, the top 3 will run 1-2-3 in some order. Also quite a few times only two entries even get a power number and run 1-2.

In full disclosure--the top two will many times run completely off the board----that's why they take bets on these things!

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I'm just going off the posts where you said you didn't care for programs that listed the top 4 now your listing the top 4.

You just aren't going to let this go are you Mark?

I STILL don't care for programs that list four horses

Count the number of horses so far at GGF

How many horses did my program give you?

Nothing has changed at all, has it?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[FakeNameChanged]

Greg, Not looking for your propietary formula, but what is the class portion of speed-class roughly based upon? Thanks. Trace

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, Not looking for your propietary formula, but what is the class portion of speed-class roughly based upon? Thanks. Trace

Good to hear from someone not busting my chops as I go down in flames @ BC how ya doing today Trace?

The "class" is (as usual) from Tom Worth's True Class Figure --available on the net with a little digging. If you can't find it and want it--I have it here somewhere, it's not copyrighted any more than, say the Kelly Model is. Also I use EPS, but as a % of Today's Purse...anything over 25% is considered decent in the non-high stakes world.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

This is something I hit a few @ Turf Paradise last year--also worked at Belmont and AQ.

There are 3 today @ TUP...if any win--then I guess it's still working

it's the old LATE/EARLY method--notice one of the horses shows a "33" early fig..don't know what that's about or how a horse can be a length behind in a route race with a 33 pace figure--but oh well.......his trainer is MONEY

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That "33" early pace figure method horse@ TUP scored and got ol' NorCal well

[Speed Figure]

All good Greg! You seem to be taking it personal. I'm simply asking a question about the top 4. I idk how many horses your program as given me because I don't use it. I buy a lot of handicapping products under $50 and yours was, but I couldn't tell anyone how to use it and what to look for.

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

You just aren't going to let this go are you Mark?

I STILL don't care for programs that list four horses

Count the number of horses so far at GGF

How many horses did my program give you?

Nothing has changed at all, has it?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Good to hear from someone not busting my chops as I go down in flames @ BC how ya doing today Trace?

The "class" is (as usual) from Tom Worth's True Class Figure --available on the net with a little digging. If you can't find it and want it--I have it here somewhere, it's not copyrighted any more than, say the Kelly Model is. Also I use EPS, but as a % of Today's Purse...anything over 25% is considered decent in the non-high stakes world.

Greg, thanks for the info. I decided to only post picks using Sp Improv. with no other handicapping, with the warning that Sp Improv. has not been designed for Stakes, especially Grade I. Race 4, Valadorna 9.80 Place, and Race 9- Highland Reel 9.60 Win. That's it. I didn't get to do Friday's races. Tomorrow I'm going to recap all the races at Aqu., Lrl, & Parx using Speed Improvement for today, since those are my "home" tracks. Hang in there.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

All good Greg! You seem to be taking it personal. I'm simply asking a question about the top 4. I idk how many horses your program as given me because I don't use it. I buy a lot of handicapping products under $50 and yours was, but I couldn't tell anyone how to use it and what to look for.

Really? You don't use it at all? I know you have your own homegrown software but I figured you wanted this to incorporate into your methods. Or at least some part of it.

I've purchased some programs in the past that I didn't use because they really were of no use---they weren't tweakable, just spit out a list of horses top to bottom. The user was really an impartial observer. Some were just poorly written and were more trouble than they were worth.

I always wanted to find out exactly what I had and exactly how it might be of benefit to me. Later on I might find it turned out to be good for route races, or early speed detector, etc. So surprising to find you really haven't actually
used it much, since you have the files already.

So I'll have to be sure to price my next program @ $49.98 to keep you on my customer list

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, thanks for the info. I decided to only post picks using Sp Improv. with no other handicapping, with the warning that Sp Improv. has not been designed for Stakes, especially Grade I. Race 4, Valadorna 9.80 Place, and Race 9- Highland Reel 9.60 Win. That's it. I didn't get to do Friday's races. Tomorrow I'm going to recap all the races at Aqu., Lrl, & Parx using Speed Improvement for today, since those are my "home" tracks. Hang in there.

Is this something you may possibly market in the future, Trace...if I'm not being too nosy? Don't let the "peanut gallery" dissuade you from anything--it sounds interesting.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Is this something you may possibly market in the future, Trace...if I'm not being too nosy? Don't let the "peanut gallery" dissuade you from anything--it sounds interesting.

No, At one time yes. I've actually had an almost 50 page booklet worked out with glossy cover and all; then condensed it to 27 pages, but decided I wasn't doing it. It's just about doing something that I really enjoy, and handicapping has done that in spades all these years. I'm more aware of its flaws than anyone else, so it's always been a work in progress. Had lots of good info from other members on here. One of our members has shared his home grown handicapping system with me, and it was pretty darn good. I may steal some of his ideas to use for my own, but wouldn't post them.

[NorCalGreg]

One bet so flaky I can't believe I'm actually gonna make the bet--but it's been decided. Obscure trainer @ AQ--I find it hard to pass up connections that I'm pretty positive that, although down on their luck....are completely desperate for a win and today is the day.

Today was the day couple weeks ago, but as many poor trainers do--they totally blew it. So they did what any normal betting barn does---they double-jumped their horse--swiched riders to brand XXX---made zero-effort that even the Belmont chart-caller--normally wordy-- only bothered with " SONORA parked out in path four on the turn,folded".

Now here were are---SONORA 20-1 (Yes that's his name) ---after a joke of a race that some see as a "conditioning race and NOT a blatant attempt at manipulation"...well to you, Mr Stevie Wonder...I say it's not the least bit suspicious SONORA is again back in 11 days?

But hey...if ignoring the realities of horse racing in the lower ranks increases your enjoyment of the game------then enjoy the game the way you want.

The Irony of it is This is a tough race for Sonora. I got a win ticket, and a exacta box with SCOFF (Scoff shows that "3F blowout 3 days ago Ultracapper really enjoys hearing about ) and FLARING. The only way I could think of to play it, with such a small field.

8th Race--ESTHER THE QUEEN 20-1 I gotta make a spot play for this--win or lose. If you have Platinum take a look at this one @ AQ.
She's 20-1..TOP E-1, E-2, HIGH LAST-2 BRIS, HIGH L-3 BRIS----oh did I mention--
--also BACK IN 9 DAYS? Is this a dream?

Don't know if Esther is gonna win or not, but 20-1 I'm taking a shot---you don't see stats like that one very often.

__________________________________________________ ______________

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by pandy

These trainer manipulation moves are mainly in the heads of the handicapper. Even top horses like Stellar Wind have off days, and claiming horses have more bad days, simply because they're not machines, not because they're being held by the jockeys. And one of the reasons why they come back to win after a bad race is because the trainer drops the horse, not because the horse was stiffed and set up for a score. Now, that doesn't mean that you can't use trainer patterns to help you handicap but those patterns have little or nothing to do with trainers trying to stiff horses. This is old school thinking, but decades ago horses raced much more often than they do now. In today's game you can't run horses without trying to get purse money and any jockey that holds a horse has to be an idiot. If he did stiff the horse, how would he know that the next time the horse runs and they bet that the horse will fire?b

But, hey, if you believe this kind of conspiracy stuff and it adds to your enjoyment of the game, go with it.

Didn't Tom/Jon Worth based most of their Tip methodology on trainer manipulation?
I think Kelso Sturgeon wrote a book titled They Fix Race's Don't They?
NCG isnt alone in his thinking I prefer the term trainer moves and conditioning to manipulation but sometimes some races make you scatch your head and wonder