Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-18-2020, 03:19 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
Took a Cab, Gulfstream Park West R8

Looking at the as an interesting 0-18 mdn clm

Looks like should be 1st or 2nd, and you hope the 1,5,10 can get into your tri or super.

Not a great betting race. I'm looking at the were he to be claimed and run in a dirt mile. Also think the will be 3rd or 4th (light for 2nd), if he does not duel up front.

is very interesting. is as well. hopefully add value.


*Also would like to see if the is heavily backed in Doubles Probables, or not...
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:34 PM   #2
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
is the low double right now, 9/1 is a solid price.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:38 PM   #3
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
1st on top,

underneath to add value.

The is looking like a bad value, maybe a slight underlay.

The is the live long shot

and look like tough favorites

is uniknown, and dead on the board

is not a good 'win' candidate

it's a dice roll, but the public is tough here with solid enough Favs...
my 5 is not a good value, but I expect him to run a decent race. Prefer no duel.

no bet or something small w/ 10
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:40 PM   #4
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
r7

7th race = the scares me a little, as far as some $ stuff on the tote
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:44 PM   #5
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
r7

$1 gambles:

5 top/bot of 47 5tb 467

5 dd 74,10 5 dd 145710
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:53 PM   #6
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
crazy r7 ...
my 5 wilted early, looked good as speed-of-speeds until the long shot closed to win wide, l lead.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 03:54 PM   #7
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
Much rather take 11/1 on the here than 4/1 on the .
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 04:04 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
Took a Cab R8

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Much rather take 11/1 on the here than 4/1 on the .
We agree, again!


Ironically my likeable horse is a terrible value in the 'Win' pool.

is live as a price
and look like the talent and solid chalk
is an 'unknown', but a big enough price with enough models in his direction that you must use

may run 2nd, but is a better value as a 3rd or 4th finisher. May be off the board completely if he duels to much early into a pace...
The real story is in the claim potential.

looks like a bad value in the 'win' pool

play around =
ex ky box 10 tb 47
emphasis ex 47/ 10
.50c TRI 47/12457/10
.10c SU 47/12457/A/10
.10c SU 4, 7, 10/4, 7, 10/1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10/1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 04:16 PM   #9
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
Post

4 / 15710 super key box =$9.60 , never bet super keys, but interesting long shots
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 04:19 PM   #10
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
I'll be very surprised if he was claimesd.

ran 'his' race again


was scared that he might win today.


seemed to get lost in the shuffle

nice ride and effort by the , surprised me.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-18-2020 at 04:21 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2020, 04:22 PM   #11
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
Yep, ran his race, finishing third. Got his trip, pressing the speed to his inside. Ran down again.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-03-2020, 11:38 PM   #12
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
back again, Friday race 2 Gulfstream #7

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Yep, ran his race, finishing third. Got his trip, pressing the speed to his inside. Ran down again.
Took a Cab (my personal favorite 0-for-19 loser that cant get a distance, who I've committed some theory to...)

Tomorrow he's probably the same horse,
yet less attractive.

The class and distance is coming to him, and the price is (going away from him) lowering.

He could get a soft trip, and screw the whole thing up (by winning, thus making a 12.5 claim, a probable loss)

Flip a coin, whether he even contends. And he won't be the solid underneath key price he was last time, or as valuable as a long-term chess move as he was last time.

Guess I'm rooting.

I'm rooting that Braddy breaks mdn Sainer's homebred on try #20. and that someone gets greedy and claims him over-ripe, a race too late, - so Braddy and Sainer get an extra $12.5k,
- or failing that, he loses and goes to a high% team.

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-03-2020 at 11:48 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-04-2020, 01:45 AM   #13
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
The good news is that the ML favorite is 0 for 29.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-04-2020, 11:50 AM   #14
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,556
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
The good news is that the ML favorite is 0 for 29.
don't like the at all, on top.

could be a level above these. Has yet to prove it.

is ...

doesn't look good to me, but he has class and speed on his side

isn't a brave stretch horse, but relatively lightly raced, decent barn stats

doesn't look good to me (he looks like a horse to maybe key third with some big prices in front of him in a tri... IDK)

is capable of passing some rivals with any sort of late flow. Decent underneath price



dime super .10 ? / ? / /

No bets

some fun paper bet guesses

Scenario=Midwest has 'im ready, and the clunkers clunk.
/ ALL / / =$1.60
ALL / / =$1.60
more
scenario 2= either the or the win their little duel, and the loser succumbs to the clunkers;
11/5, 7/3, 4, 6, 8, 10/3, 4, 6, 8, 10=$4.00
11/3, 4, 6, 8, 10/5, 7/3, 4, 6, 8, 10=$4.00

scenario fiesta = Speed favoring, and Zayas sits a great trip to get 3rd
50c Tri // =$3
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-04-2020, 12:07 PM   #15
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
Leaving out the Comiskey Park here? Only first time starter in a field like this? The whole field has 21 $ finishes in 88 starts. Take the and out and they have 1. I would even consider the here. Three different horses have been able to run a race with a par or better figure. One of them is 30/1. The only other one of those 3 I would consider is the . Just because he ran that figure against open MSW competition at this distance.

Hate the race, it is a spread race that has no real "A" selections.


30/1, 15/1, 8/1, 30/1, and 9/2.

Last edited by jay68802; 12-04-2020 at 12:09 PM.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.