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11-02-2020, 11:37 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Maps - Prediction Time
Final edition... put'em up.
Basically I see Biden clocking in around 350... but I'll have him run the table. By confidence (most to least):
NC - Its been blue the whole time with Cooper and Cunningham pulling it along.
GA - Trended blue hard the past couple of weeks.
TX - These early turnout numbers look good for Democrats. You shouldn't make picks on early vote data but I'm doing it just for the sheer volume of early vote.
IA - Selzer is the gold standard but I don't trust polls that have Democrats gaining similar margins in 3 out of 4 Districts then inexplicably losing 12 in one already held by one. State was trending blue and I'm going to roll with that trend continuing.
FL - Florida is going to Florida... <shrugs>. Polls weight by education more. Biden has led throughout. His lead is larger than Clinton's and a 2016 Pro Trump error would still award the state to Biden. Watch Sumter returns.
OH - State has been shifting blue in the closing months. Its a reach but its also crazy that TX is more likely to go blue than Ohio... least confident here. State DOES actually have competent GOP leadership.
Realistically Biden probably finishes with ~350 but if turnout is any indication it could go sideways quick... I'll go with that angle.
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11-03-2020, 12:05 AM
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#2
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,789
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You’re either a genius or out of your frigging mind............
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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11-03-2020, 12:12 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: totonto
Posts: 618
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11-03-2020, 12:13 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
You’re either a genius or out of your frigging mind............
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Forget the head, call Texas. Do you have the feel in Texas JR?
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11-03-2020, 12:19 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 6,371
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Don't know what the hell you been smokin'... poppin' or drinkin'.
But you need to give it a rest... 
__________________
Remember To Help Old Friends Thoroughbred Retirement Center.
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11-03-2020, 12:37 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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I see all these comments and very few actual predictions... typical.
I've said 350 is likely. I'll post the Biden ceiling.
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11-03-2020, 01:00 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fast4522
Forget the head, call Texas. Do you have the feel in Texas JR?
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JR can speak for himself but I'll chime in since I've voted at my local polling place as well as witnessing 3 rec centers we coach chess at and are polling places
1, no way 46 percent of early voters are under 40 yo as is being reported. No way. In the 9 days of being around polling places my guess is less than ten percent. No way it's more than 12 percent (1 in 8).
2, just by looks, the first few days were almost all 50yo and over. After that first week I'd say it picked up a bit for younger voters but still well under what is being reported
3, fraud is rampant here. Trump will have to win by at least 3 to win here.
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
Last edited by ElKabong; 11-03-2020 at 01:03 AM.
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11-03-2020, 01:06 AM
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#8
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,623
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong
3, fraud is rampant here. Trump will have to win by at least 3 to win here.
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Nope...doesn't happen.
mostpost says it doesn't happen...ely says it doesn't and won't happen.
They are the experts.
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11-03-2020, 01:07 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong
JR can speak for himself but I'll chime in since I've voted at my local polling place as well as witnessing 3 rec centers we coach chess at and are polling places
1, no way 46 percent of early voters are under 40 yo as is being reported. No way. In the 9 days of being around polling places my guess is less than ten percent. No way it's more than 12 percent (1 in 8).
2, just by looks, the first few days were almost all 50yo and over. After that first week I'd say it picked up a bit for younger voters but still well under what is being reported
3, fraud is rampant here. Trump will have to win by at least 3 to win here.
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If fraud is so rampant its probably a good thing the GOP loses since they control virtually all aspects of the State government.
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11-03-2020, 01:14 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
I see all these comments and very few actual predictions... typical.
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Comments are good. I like comments. They give context to the numbers.
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11-03-2020, 01:17 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
If fraud is so rampant its probably a good thing the GOP loses since they control virtually all aspects of the State government.
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I've posted multiple instances of people here being arrested for voter fraud. You should pay attention sometime.
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
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11-03-2020, 01:18 AM
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#12
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fast4522
Forget the head, call Texas. Do you have the feel in Texas JR?
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I voted early (Last week) and I have no idea at all as to what is going to happen. I’ve seen more Biden stuff than Hillary stuff from 16. But with blue staters pouring into Texas ....I guess that’s the way it’s going to go from now on.
I still think the only way Trump wins is if minorities push him over the line.
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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11-03-2020, 01:19 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Nope...doesn't happen.
mostpost says it doesn't happen...ely says it doesn't and won't happen.
They are the experts.
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If I see them driving on LBJ I'll ram their car. Just so they can cry foul... I don't want to deprive them of a good whine
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
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11-03-2020, 01:25 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
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11-03-2020, 07:00 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong
I've posted multiple instances of people here being arrested for voter fraud. You should pay attention sometime.
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Anything on the scale of what we saw yesterday?
GOP lawyers in court trying to get 120 thousand LEGITIMATE ballots tossed out?
Of course they lost but were successful in getting 9 drive-up polls closed today because more fear of their rat****ing.
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democrats have nothing to off...nothing...just talk and welfare lines to those Americans who are not stupifyed by listening to Biden and other free loaders of the Democratic Party...
@