BC Juvenile Fillies

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

We'll find out Saturday, at least a little. She'll have her hands full with Astute.

I think that's an interesting race, but an entirely different problem.

Unlike last time when it was harder for me personally to know how much PN had in the tank for a guy like Bafffert that gets big jump ups more often than other trainers with horses he's especially high on, she has already shown us where she is now with the 85.

I think this race is more about Astute having more natural speed and the slightly higher figure, but Princess Noor having competed in the rougher spot and being proven at a route. Both could easily get better (or not)

Personally, I have no special incites into whether Astute is more likely to improve or regress going long.

I'm also wondering whether Baffert may ensure Astute has company on the front end with Kalyspo who herself wouldn't be the first Baffert horse to stretch out, move forward, and carry that speed. Though she comes off a track I made a GR and especially good for speed on the rail.

That is race is probably unplayable for me. I don't know anything there that everyone else doesn't already know.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Certainly the result of one race will at least decrease your probability estimate. It has to be much more rare for a horse to jump up 10 points or more when it already has a failure on its record, at least in the short term.

Yes. I think it's less likely for a big jump up from here. More likely would be a steady progression as she matures and gets more experience.

We are getting too circular.

Keep in mind I bet against her also.

The whole thread could have ended by saying I thought she was more dangerous than most "wise guys" did going into that race and simply don't think that because she lost and ran an 85 it negates anything I thought about her previously.

She was one of a LOT of horses I thought could jump up a lot. Some go backward, some forward a bit, some sideways, and some jump way up. Each case is a little different and the only thing that matters to me is getting those probabilities closer to right over time than the public.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Yes. I think it's less likely for a big jump up from here. More likely would be a steady progression as she matures and gets more experience.

We are getting too circular.

Fine, it seems we agree that she is less likely to make the instantaneous jump you potentially envisioned ahead of the BC, now that she was clearly exposed in her acid test.

From some of your post-BC posts, it seemed as though you were arbitrarily drawing a line through her BC effort, and that this probability you are talking about needn't be modified whatsoever. In reality, it is highly unlikely she will make the jump in one-go now that she got dusted, especially in another tough race.

The main difference we have is that you seem to think that visually the BC effort didn't register a true measure of her talent, but wholly embrace the 85 figure generated. I take the BC race at face value visually, but reject the validity of that increased 85 figure since for all intents and purposes she was easing out of the race in the last furlong.

She might win tomorrow, but if they had re-run the BC multiple times with the same field over the past few weeks--granting a clean race--she would get dusted every time.

On to tomorrow, IMO there is a major rider switch on Astute with Flavien Prat substituting for a stricken Mike Smith. You never know what Smith will do in a major race with highly touted horses and the probability he would do something stupid (e.g., play cat-and-mouse with Princess Noor rather than concentrate on getting Astute to stay 8.5f) was high. Prat will ride a much more sensible race.

Meanwhile, the BC Juvenile Fillies form is already slightly suspect, as Simply Ravishing was beaten convincingly at odds-on in the Golden Rod last weekend. Though the light field tempers concern, it is not ideal that Princess Noor is coming back so quick off a disastrous performance, and Baffert has really put the screws on her (unwisely IMO), working every 5 days leading up to the race. He seems to be overdoing it and the filly has been leaning in down the lane distinctly in a couple of those works.

[Bennie]

Just wondering if she has been working with the blinkers off as she will run today or if they are taking them off because of her leaning in during some of those works. Maybe it's just one of those "have to try something" moves.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Just wondering if she has been working with the blinkers off as she will run today or if they are taking them off because of her leaning in during some of those works. Maybe it's just one of those "have to try something" moves.

Blinkers off last 3 works (all post-BC)

Most recent:

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/p...mber-30th-2020

[cj]

Well that didn't look good. Hoping Princess Noor is ok.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by cj

Well that didn't look good. Hoping Princess Noor is ok.

I agree! It was definitely going to blow that field away!
Looks like it might have taken a bad step after taking the lead by 2 coming into the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Well that didn't look good. Hoping Princess Noor is ok.

What I thought was interesting was that Spalding mentioned a few weeks back that she was doing something with her head in one of her works. So I watched it and saw what he was talking about. She did the same thing in one or both of her other recent works also. It was slight, but she was doing it. Then yesterday late backstretch or just going into the second turn she was doing it again before straightening out and taking over. Maybe she needs those blinkers or maybe something has been bothering her all along and yesterday was the day it manifested itself. I'm not a trainer, but there's some sort of issue with her over and above what happened yesterday in the stretch. Baffert is way too smart to not see it and the riders have to be telling him anyway.

Assuming she's OK (the X Ray was supposedly OK), when a horse is disappointing his typical plan is to given them a few months off and start over.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Meanwhile, the BC Juvenile Fillies form is already slightly suspect, as Simply Ravishing was beaten convincingly at odds-on in the Golden Rod last weekend.

I was not a huge fan of hers going into that race as I mentioned as the start of this thread. She inherited a very soft lead in the Alcibiades when Travel Column got away badly and another speed didn't go. Her prior race was an off the turf sprint race and the one before that was a turf race. I thought she might be very good, but she hadn't proved it to me yet. She was more of a question mark to me. But I had no problem with her performance in the Juvenile Filly race or the quality of that field. I thought she ran well. She probably should have been 2nd.

The Golden Rod was interesting in that going into the race I thought the pace might collapse. It more or less did, but the fractions weren't particularly fast. It wasn't like the speed horses were high quality types, but they did fall apart and she was in the mix with them while pretty wide early. I suspect she didn't run as poorly as it looks there.

[classhandicapper]

Princess Noor is retired.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Princess Noor is retired.

Fortunately, the news is no way indicative of any life-threatening danger /soft-tissue injury.

She's a valuable broodmare. G1 and a G2. Limitless potential...


wild-ride of career and in this thread


she looked on her way to winning a soft race yesterday when the incident occurred.

Astute didn't fire at all. Baffert had a bunch of teammates, and I didn't really notice them even having to work much in tandem to deter Astute.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What I thought was interesting was that Spalding mentioned a few weeks back that she was doing something with her head in one of her works. So I watched it and saw what he was talking about. She did the same thing in one or both of her other recent works also. It was slight, but she was doing it. Then yesterday late backstretch or just going into the second turn she was doing it again before straightening out and taking over. Maybe she needs those blinkers or maybe something has been bothering her all along and yesterday was the day it manifested itself. I'm not a trainer, but there's some sort of issue with her over and above what happened yesterday in the stretch. Baffert is way too smart to not see it and the riders have to be telling him anyway.

You are onto something. You can see the weird head reaction when she switches back leads in the workouts at the top of the stretch. Excellent observation.

[Someday Silent]

The Graded Stakes Committee really needs to rethink G1 status for this race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

The Graded Stakes Committee really needs to rethink G1 status for this race.

Pretty much everything run after the Breeder's Cup should probably at least be reviewed. I saw a few fields this weekend I didn't think deserved the official grade assigned.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

The Graded Stakes Committee really needs to rethink G1 status for this race.

It will never happen, but they should probably redo the entire graded structure of 2yo racing. Obviously, 2yo and early 3yo races are generally going to be of a much lower quality then open races of the same grade. But when I first got into the game the best 2yo stakes were made up of horses that had won some combination of their MSW, a NW1 Allowance, and often more than 1 minor or graded stakes.

Now we often have maidens competing in the minor stakes and maiden graduates going straight to the highest graded stakes.

The whole structure is 1 or 2 levels lower than it use to be.

Other than the BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile Filly, I'd be hard pressed to think of another 2yo race I think consistently delivers a race full of of multiple winners and stakes winners. Maybe the BC races should be the only Grade 1 races for 2yos and everything else should be dropped a notch. Unofficially, that's the way I view most these races anyway. Pretending some of these other races contain the very best 2yos that have already begun sorting themselves out is kind of silly.