If you were Racing Czar of NYRA...

[highnote]

I posted the following in a different thread, but it seems like it could be its own thread. Too many people say racing is dying in the U.S. and there is no solution. I emphatically disagree. If there is a will there is a way.

If I was Racing Czar of NYRA here is what I would do:

Basically -- shorting the meets and create two populations of horses so that drugs can be totally eliminated in one of the populations. Create a handicap division and an open division.

Here are the details:

Get rid of winter racing at AQU. Have a shorter spring, summer, and fall meet at BEL. Shorten SAR to 4 weeks. Create demand by limiting supply. NY is still the premier racing market.

So maybe race at BEL 3 days per week -- 10, 12, or even 14 race cards on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, and an 8 race card Wednesday night under the lights! Throw in an occasional 4th day per week for holidays. Run from mid-March until the end of June.

Take off the hot month of July in order to build up demand for SAR.

Run 5 days per week through Labor Day at SAR. Run Wednesday through Sunday.

Run mid-September through mid-November at BEL.

It may not be possible to get rid of all illicit use of drugs on horses to get an advantage, but there is a way to structure the racing system by creating two populations of horses that would all but eliminate illicit drug use in one of the populations.

The non-drug population would follow the Hong Kong model where a roster of about 1,000 to 2,000 horses are selected to race ONLY at BEL. These would be geldings that might range in age from 3 to 12 years old. These horses can never be shipped to another jurisdiction to race. This class of horse competes only in handicap races like in HK where there are 5 classes of handicap races. The horses are kept under constant surveillance and are only treated by state authorized vets. If there is a drug violation it would be easy to know if it was a vet since each vet would be responsible for X number of horses. Penalties for drug violations would be severe for owners, trainers, or vets, or whomever is responsible for the care of the horses. They could be heavily fined or even banned from participating in this class. The horses in the handicap division would not be allowed to be shipped to SAR because cheating could take place on the ride to SAR. The group of handicap horses at BEL would be the best handicap division in the country because NY always attracts the best.

The second class of horses would be an open division. This would be a division just like it is run today. Vets, owners, and trainers can try to get away with the use of illicit race day drugs. Shippers are allowed. Nothing would change from the way it is now. These horses would be treated by a vet chosen by the trainer or owner. The open division is where the stakes, maidens, allowance, and high priced claimers would run.

The stakes races would be run with full fields. There would be fewer pretenders. Because most races would be handicap races the stakes and maiden races would take on greater importance because there would be fewer of them. Horses that can't make it to the stakes level would be relegated to a new jurisdiction or to the handicap class. Horses that cannot compete at the handicap level would be relegated to a new jurisdiction.

Trainers who cannot be competitive in the handicap division could lose the privilege of training horses in that division.

There is more to be said, but this is a good start. Feel free to add. Or not.

[Tom]

2 groups huh?
So we could look forward to 2.5 horse fields instead of 5?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Tom

2 groups huh?
So we could look forward to 2.5 horse fields instead of 5?

No. One group is made up of horses that race only in one of the 5 levels of handicap racing. This group would consist of 1,000 to 2,000 horses stabled at the track. This group could only race in handicap races, not in the open division. This group would be required to be kept on-track at all times and under video surveillance -- the same way they do it in HK. Drug use would only be allowed post-race for therapeutic purposes and administered by a state authorized vet. The horse could not race again until it was clean. The HK Jockey Club has a whole list of stringent requirements.

Since these handicap horses would be mainly older geldings they can race more often and they would be 100% drug free. So when they are injured their pain can't be masked by bute. If they bleed they are given time to heal rather than Lasix. If bleeding is a problem for them then they are ruled off the track for good and replaced by a new horse.

Since all races are handicaps it would be easier to fill the races with 14 horses because the weight handicap would level the playing field.

Also, because there would be fewer racing days there would be more time for the turf course to recover and therefore more turf races could be carded.

BEL has inner and outer turf courses and moveable rails. This would also make for more turf racing.

And with a guaranteed population of 1,000 to 2,000 horses on track races would be guaranteed to fill.

[Afleet]

eliminate state bred races which would increase the claiming race fields. Drop the takeout on WPS and DD wagers to 10% or less

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Afleet

eliminate state bred races which would increase the claiming race fields. Drop the takeout on WPS and DD wagers to 10% or less

Aren't state bred races subsidized partly by the state?

Dropping the takeout would definitely help, but horsemen have resisted it. So what happens is that the whales bet with ADWs and get large rebates which effectively lowers the takeout for them, but not for the little guys.

Welfare is for whales, capitalism is for minnows.

[Robert Fischer]

Love NYRA.

My only gripe with them, ever?, is field size.

I don't know enough about the dynamics to understand whether field size can be fixed, or whether a scaled takeout reduction is feasible, during the times when you can only field five or six runners.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I read up until getting rid of winter racing. It would destroy the breeding industry in NY, esp when state bred races make up a significant portion of the winter meets

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Love NYRA.

My only gripe with them, ever?, is field size.

I don't know enough about the dynamics to understand whether field size can be fixed, or whether a scaled takeout reduction is feasible, during the times when you can only field five or six runners.

Takeout reduction is not going to put more horses on the track. Too few horses is the problem. Horsemen will never go for reduced takeout.

What is needed is fewer racing days with more horses per race. This is the same as more racing days with fewer horses per race. Bettors would prefer the former. Horsemen would prefer the latter. The problem is the latter is not sustainable.

More racing days with more horses per race is what every body wants. No one is going to get that.

So the plan that could work is a hybrid U.S. model / Hong Kong model.

Have two populations of horses -- a handicap-only division and an open division.

The 1,000 to 2,000 horses in the handicap division race ONLY at Belmont in one of 5 handicap levels. The racing secretary assigns each horse to a class based on their past ability and how much weight they will carry. If the horse is good it will move up in class or stay at the same level but carry more weight. The idea is to create races where every horse has an equal chance of winning. That can only be done regularly with a handicap system.

By utilizing a handicap system with 1,000 - 2,000 horses the field size is almost guaranteed to be large for every race. There will be fewer races in the open division, but they will be of higher quality with larger fields.

Bettors will come back to U.S. racing because every horse in the handicap division will be under video surveillance 24-7 and every horse will be treated by a state-authorized vet. Penalties for drugs in a horse's system will be severe. No horse in the handicap division will be allowed to leave the Belmont premises. If it leaves the grounds it will become ineligible until it returns to the track and sits in jail and is drug-free.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe

I read up until getting rid of winter racing. It would destroy the breeding industry in NY, esp when state bred races make up a significant portion of the winter meets

How would it destroy the breeding industry?

There would be the same or as many horses racing per year. The thing that would change is that there would be fewer races with more horses per race. That is the same as more races with fewer horses per race.

Let's say you have 125 race days per year at an average of 10 races per day and 10 horses per race. That equals 12,500 horse past performances.

This is about the same as 250 race days per year at an average of 8 races per day and 6 .25 horses per race.

As a bettor which do you prefer?

Tracks would save money on labor. You only need people on 125 days per year rather than 250.

And if there were two divisions of horses -- handicap and open -- you might even have 12 to 14 races on weekends and 8 on Wednesdays and also run a few holidays which would bring the number of race days to more than 125. So you get 135 race days with 11.5 races per day on average and 10 horses per race. That gets you to 15,525 horse past performances per year -- an increase of almost 25% more racing!

Who doesn't love that? Horsemen and bettors should celebrate!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by highnote

Takeout reduction is not going to put more horses on the track. Too few horses is the problem. Horsemen will never go for reduced takeout.
...

So the plan that could work is a hybrid U.S. model / Hong Kong model.

...

Both my Takeout-scaled-to-field-size, and your Hong Kong modeled reform would probably be considered 'too radical'.

Good ideas

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Both my Takeout-scaled-to-field-size, and your Hong Kong modeled reform would probably be considered 'too radical'.

Good ideas

I have heard of the takeout-scaled-to-field-size solution mentioned before. I like the idea. I just watched part of replay of the Santa Anita Oaks with 4 horses. I turned it off before they reached the first turn. Life is too short to watch a race with only 4 horses that I have zero interest in ever betting on.

Do racing executives not understand that entertainment options are virtually infinite. There is only time to watch the best of the best.

Funny thing about Hong Kong is that Bill Nader was the second highest executive at NYRA and now he runs the HK Jockey Club.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by highnote

I have heard of the takeout-scaled-to-field-size solution mentioned before. I like the idea. I just watched part of replay of the Santa Anita Oaks with 4 horses. I turned it off before they reached the first turn. Life is too short to watch a race with only 4 horses that I have zero interest in ever betting on.

Do racing executives not understand that entertainment options are virtually infinite. There is only time to watch the best of the best.

Funny thing about Hong Kong is that Bill Nader was the second highest executive at NYRA and now he runs the HK Jockey Club.

Some smart ideas.

Horse racing depends on that model (brain-fog on the terminology) but it's a "brand loyalty" model, where horse racing has almost a cult following of loyal customers.

Biggest bettors are rebated, but the game could do more to embrace the model.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Some smart ideas.

Horse racing depends on that model (brain-fog on the terminology) but it's a "brand loyalty" model, where horse racing has almost a cult following of loyal customers.

Biggest bettors are rebated, but the game could do more to embrace the model.

If their cult following is enough to sustain them then more power to them.

Racing is a lot like musicians today. Everything is niche. The days of rock stars earning more money than bankers is over. There are very few global superstars. Even the biggest musician can't sell millions and millions of records any more, but they fit in a niche market with a loyal following that allows them to still make a lot of money.

Maybe NYRA hanging on to their monopoly while trying to not go bankrupt is good enough? But why settle for mediocre when you can be great?

[highnote]

Here is a brief outline with some ideas on how to increase handle on U.S. racing by increasing field size and eliminating race day drugs while increasing the number of live races staged per year, creating more opportunities for trainers, jockeys and owners, and helping breeders by increasing the demand for stallions that can produce durable, high-quality runners.

Notice there is no mention of reducing takeout. This is because horseplayers would be happy that someone is doing something for "Making the game better for the Bettor" (tm).

CONCEPT

Add a Hong Kong-styled handicap division.

Maintain a separate, but fixed size population of horses that compete ONLY in the handicap division.

Horses in the handicap division are stabled separately from horses in the OPEN division.

Handicap divison stables are under 24-7 video surveillance.

Only state-authorized vets are allowed to administer therapuetic drugs, post race.

No pre-race, race day drugs are allowed to be administered.

Horses must be drug tested prior to racing and must be clean before they can race.

Here is a link to a description of the handicapping system used in Hong Kong:

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/engli...cap_policy.asp

This could be adapted and modified to what would work best in a particular U.S. racing jurisdiction.

IMPLEMENTATION

Start small to see if the concept is workable.

It is probably not prudent to gather 2,000 horses for a handicap division given the risk of failure.

It is better to start small and then iterate the model until it is proven to work or not work.

If it fails after many iterations then pivot in a new direction or stop altogether.

The goal is to get 14 horse fields in every race, or whatever the typical maximum number of runners are at a given track.

In order to do average 14 horses per race 16 horses would need to be entered per race which would allow for two early scratches to be filled.

If one handicap race were carded for each class per racing day and this was done one day per week then 80 handicap division horses per day would be needed. Since the goal is to race these horses every 4 to 6 weeks a 6 week supply of runners would be needed. That is 480 horses.

It could probably be done on an even smaller scale with fewer horses by running three classes per day one day per week. For example, race Classes 1, 2, and 3 in week one. Then race Classes 4, 5, and 1 in week two. Then race Classes 2, 3, and 4 in week three, etc. This would require only 48 horses per week or about 300 horses for the 6 week rotation. Truthfully, the track could shoot for 10 horses per race with 2 standby runners. So then all that would be needed are 36 horses per day -- or about 216 horses for a six week rotation. Of course, it could be done on an even smaller scale and the feedback generated would still be useful.

New infrastruture would be required.

The horses would be need to be stabled in an area reserved for handicap class horses.

The horses would need to be under 24-7 video surveillance.

A roster of state-authorized vets each would be assigned to X number of horses.

This could make it easier to trace where any corruption occured if there were drug positives.

A set of rules would need to be drafted.

For example, a horse in the handicap class must be stabled at the track and cannot ship to another jurisdiction to race, otherwise, it loses it's eligibility to race in the track's handicap division.

Maybe a contract would be necessary that requires the trainer or owner to agree to race the horse for X amount of time at the track before it can be removed, unless it is retired? Then once it is retired it is never again allowed to race in the handicap division if it comes out of retirement to race again.

An owner can only own X amount of handicap horses.

An owner can retire a horse and replace it with another.

That's the gist of it. It seems reasonable. It works in HK. It should work in the U.S.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by highnote

Take off the hot month of July in order to build up demand for SAR.

July is critical to Saratoga Prep races. I think it would degrade the Saratoga product.