Key Races & Bets, Gulfstream, Cigar Mile, Demoiselle for Saturday 12/5

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There was a slight problem with the Amwager site (not for betting, just for posting the blog) so this week's Key Races & Bets blog is below. You can get the podcast here https://ubercapper.podbean.com/




The Demoiselle Stakes is the race for my Keeneland Select blog here https://www.keeneland.com/media/news...ecember-5-2020



The Cigar Mile is the Equibase race of the week here
https://www.equibase.com/content/ana...reanalysis.cfm















Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 5
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Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes - Race 6 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:38 PM Eastern


Jesus’ Team is going to take a LOT of money owing to his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last month. Perhaps that’s rightfully so but perhaps not, because his LAST WIN came in a 25K non-winners of two lifetime claiming race in May. All his other efforts, consisting of five races where he finished second, third or fourth, came against three year olds and although this included third place finishes in the Jim Dandy and Preakness, they were mostly in short fields and except for Swiss Skydiver, Authentic and Knicks Go, the competition wasn’t that great. He can win and will be used on exacta tickets but there are TWO horses which absolutely can beat him as they’re more seasoned and just as fast.



Those two are Storm Runner and Treasure Trove. Storm Runner won decisively by eight lengths in June when dropping into a claiming race for the first time and therefore qualifying for this starter stakes. He was off for four months before returning in a starter allowance on grass last month and winning pretty easily over Apreciado, who we will see later in the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes. He gets the rail and has superb tactical speed and I have little doubt in my mind the comeback race on 11/4, although on grass was with this race in mind for trainer Romans. He’s won on the GP main track and at anywhere near his starting 4/1 odds is a great win bet. Treasure Trove has been first or second in eight of 10 this year, including his last race in mid-October which was scheduled for turf. He won gamely by a neck and was claimed by Maker, who literally has made a career out of claiming horses and winning stakes. Gaffalione gets the call and was the #1 rider for the barn at Keeneland this fall and this hard-knocking four year old with six wins and three runner-up efforts from 16 dirt races should be in the exacta at the least.



Bets:

Win: Storm Runner and Treasure Trove at 2/1 or more.


When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:

Box Storm Runner, Treasure Trove and Jesus’ Team



Doubles:

Race 6: Storm Runner, Treasure Trove and Jesus’ Team

Race 7: Artie’s Rumor, Temple, Over the Channel



Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern


Temple is one of FIVE in this 12 horse field from the Maker barn and as a stakes winner eligible for this starter stakes gets the edge. Better still, he is four-for-eight on the Gulfstream Park turf course and won the Gio Ponti Stakes at the distance in New York one year ago nearly to the week. His last race sets him up for an “A” effort good enough to win here, as he rallied from sixth of 11 early and was getting to the winner with every stride at the end.



Over the Channel opens at 15/1 odds making it very difficult to ignore him when considering wagers in this race. He’s been first or second in six of seven this year, all on turf, and he’s only been worse than second ONE time in six races on the Gulfstream Park turf. Paco Lopez rode him to back-to-back wins in the fall of 2019 and rode him to a runner-up effort last time out at the end of October, off a two month layoff. As such, I expect Over the Channel to run another big race hopefully make us a sweet profit.



Artie’s Rumor is another Maker trainee and its notable Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call. Typical of Maker’s prowess, Artie’s Rumor, who was entered in six straight allowance or starter starter allowance races between January and September, was claimed the first time he was in for a claiming price in September, and IMMEDIATELY won off the claim. The win came at this distance on turf in a pretty tough field and was a CAREER BEST effort, so he’s got a big shot today.



There are at least SIX other horses I’d consider using on exotic tickets around the three contenders above – Apreciado, Tusk, Hieroglyphics, High Noon Rider, Morning Stride and Sniper Kitten.



Bets:

Win: Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor at 3/1 or more.



This is EXACTLY the kind of race where a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager really comes in handy as it proportions your bets based on the odds so you don’t have to do the math for yourself because we can bet two, or even three horses to win at the right odds.


Exactas:

Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor over Temple, Over the Channel, Artie’s Rumor, Apreciado, Tusk, Hieroglyphics, High Noon Rider, Morning Stride and Sniper Kitten.



Box Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor



Trifecta:

Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor over ALL over Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor (This covers any two of the three finishing 1st and 3rd and compliments the exacta box)



Sandpiper Stakes - Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern


Wholebodemeister returned from a two and one-half month layoff near the end of October and won as she pleased by almost five lengths in spite of having to wait for a path to run on the turn. She had shown promise when winning her second career start in July but finished fifth in a stakes right after that in August. Apparently the short rest did her a world of good as she not only won but did so with a lot of maturity when relaxing in third early. Hot Camacho rides and we should expect nice improvement second off the layoff as well.



Gulf Coast won in her career debut last month with a mature rally from fourth and in spite of going wide on the turn. She’s giving away experience to most of these but appears talented and as she ships in from the other side of the state (she’s been training at Palm Meadows) and gets Gallardo must deserve respect as a contender.



Hara, like Wholebodemeister, has run a number of times, six to be exact. She finished second in her debut then won by six lengths last June, then ran poorly in stakes when shipped from Florida to New York, twice. Rested two months, she was beaten just a neck in a strong effort in October then won last month (in a dead heat) while fighting the last three-eighths of a mile. Centeno gets on and with a good post to stalk whichever horse(s) will want the lead she could be in the thick of the action down to the wire.



Bets:

Win: Wholebodemeister at 5 to 2 or more.

Consider win bets on Gulf Coast and Hara at 3 to 1 or more.



Exactas:

Box Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast and Hara.



Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast and Hara over Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast, Hara, Special Princess, Little Nesso, Feeling Mischief, Nurse Judy, Battle Cry and Briella.





BONUS RACE – Starlet Stakes - Race 5 at Los Alamitos - Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern (2:28 PM Pacific)

Astute sticks out in this race but is not the favorite. Baffert’s Princess Noor is favored even though she ran a poor fifth when favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She didn’t have the figures to win that race and she doesn’t have the figures to win this race either. Astute does and even if Kalypso wants the lead I feel strongly Astute can sit in second early and still win as she pleases.

Bet: Astute to win at odds of 1/1 (even money) or more, a true low odds overlay win bet.