Parx Track

[sausage]

After the results over the past 2 weeks I am staying away as handicapping there seems impossible at the moment.

Nothing is making ground and most horses look like they are running in glue when put to pressure

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by sausage

After the results over the past 2 weeks I am staying away as handicapping there seems impossible at the moment.

Nothing is making ground and most horses look like they are running in glue when put to pressure

See what you mean. I checked the charts for Sat 10/14.
TRack wet fast.
Every winner save the 8th race was no worse than 3rd at the final call before the Stretch call.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thespaah

See what you mean. I checked the charts for Sat 10/14.
TRack wet fast.
Every winner save the 8th race was no worse than 3rd at the final call before the Stretch call.

You can find a few tracks like that most days if talking about dirt racing only.

[sausage]

Are there any dirt tracks that spring to mind cj (from a consistently front running point of view)?

Just curious and still learning the US dirt style racing

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by sausage

Are there any dirt tracks that spring to mind cj (from a consistently front running point of view)?

Just curious and still learning the US dirt style racing

turfway before the poly, was a serious front runner track

[Tom]

Back in the 80's, PArx (Keystone) was a front running paradise for rail horses. Flat bet profit on the and horse, betting both.
Same for Boxing in the exactas. Could only bet Tuesdays through OTB, but Tuesday was the big betting day of the week.
Didn't need no steeking Form, just bet the numbers.

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by sausage

Are there any dirt tracks that spring to mind cj (from a consistently front running point of view)?

Just curious and still learning the US dirt style racing

Turf Paradise

1 mile dirt
130 races, E & Ep Win at 65%

6 Furlongs dirt
183 races, E & Ep Win at 76%

5.5 Furlongs dirt
127 races, E & Ep Win at 73%

[sausage]

Thanks Money very interesting - did you make those stats yourself or get them from somewhere?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by MONEY

Turf Paradise

1 mile dirt
130 races, E & Ep Win at 65%

6 Furlongs dirt
183 races, E & Ep Win at 76%

5.5 Furlongs dirt
127 races, E & Ep Win at 73%

Money, those are some excellent stats.

Permit me to offer some support of your findings.



In this graphic I show the last 200 races at TUP, 6f, fast, 5+ horses.

#1 - This shows the winners' position at each call. (a neck is close enough to be tied for the next position.)

#2 - This shows the average postion and lengths behind of the winners at each call. Really this only has value as a long-term metric to show if there are trend changes.

#3, #4, #5 is really the important stuff. This shows where the winners made their move for the 1st time. That is, when did the horse first run within 1 length of the leader.

This is important because, despite the fact that 68% of the winners were within 1 length at the 2nd call, only 14% were not on the lead at the 1st call!

In other words, it is actually the 1st call that matters!

Just to prove that this is not only a "current profile," here's a shot of the last 2,000 races at TUP.



Almost exactly the same.


Best Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: If you guys like stats like this, let me know and I will come up with more.