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08-11-2017, 04:16 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: away from the ice and snow.....
Posts: 120
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show pools converted into odds
Is there any software that will convert the show money on each horse into odds,or any formula to do it longhand?
Thanks
Mikeb
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08-11-2017, 07:12 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,752
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i used to see that with adw's. they used to show you a range as to what the payoffs might be. show payoffs depend on who the horses are that finish in the money. so its impossible to be exact unlike win pools.
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08-11-2017, 09:39 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeb
Is there any software that will convert the show money on each horse into odds,or any formula to do it longhand?
Thanks
Mikeb
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Buy a copy of "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack" by Dr. William T. Ziemba and Dr. Donald Hausch.
They give approximations of the formulations needed to calculate the values.
The actual method is called Generalized Reduced Gradient. It's an optimization problem. It's complicated.
If you're handy with Excel you could probably solve the equations using the Solver add-on.
If your math ability is like mine then the approximation will have to suffice.
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08-11-2017, 09:51 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Generalized Reduced Gradient ?
For what.
Is a show pool, not dark matter.
As mentioned there will be a range of payoffs, low to high. easy to figure.
Otherwise, what kind of 'odds' are you looking for?
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08-11-2017, 09:58 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Generalized Reduced Gradient ?
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GRG is one method for computing all the ijk in the money finishes.
If there are 10 horses in the race and any three of them can finish 1-2-3 (that is, ijk) then it can get pretty complicated.
What is the probability of any particular i-j-k finish?
If i and j finish first and second then any horse can finish third except for i and j.
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08-12-2017, 01:07 AM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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I don't think that's what the orig poster was asking for, but who knows.
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08-12-2017, 01:35 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I don't think that's what the orig poster was asking for, but who knows.
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It doesn't matter. Beat the Racetrack is a good book for people who want to have a deeper understanding of place and show betting.
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08-12-2017, 12:43 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 403
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New Pizzolla Software
The new software cost is.
1,297 if you have the current Black Magic.
1,797 If you are a new customer.
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08-12-2017, 01:16 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
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Dr Z's Beat The Racetrack
Highnote
Hi , i remember first reading about Dr Z's Tote system in Nick Mordin's first Book years ago and wishing we(the UK) had a stronger Tote system.
Ziemba's book 'Beat The Racetrack' can be read online for free at openlibrary.org along with numerous other old handicapping classics.
I enjoyed the podcast interview with Ziemba that you linked recently - Thanks.
Had a look around that traders site - if you register your email they have numerous other podcasts and a nice pdf transcript of an interview they done with Edward Thorp - (Beat The Dealer - BlackJack legend)
Regarding 'The Professor' Nick Mordin - as i am from the UK used to love reading his articles in the Racing Post Weekender/Irish Field etc and know his work very well but have been wondering for a while what happened to him - Has he gave up the Game , Retired , working abroad? I even enquired to The Racing Post but even that came up blank. I know he was on good terms with Cary Fotias - The Xtras (sadly passed - Blinkers Off - great book)
Can you shed any light as he is missed in the UK.
Thanks
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08-12-2017, 01:29 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91
Highnote
Hi , i remember first reading about Dr Z's Tote system in Nick Mordin's first Book years ago and wishing we(the UK) had a stronger Tote system.
Ziemba's book 'Beat The Racetrack' can be read online for free at openlibrary.org along with numerous other old handicapping classics.
I enjoyed the podcast interview with Ziemba that you linked recently - Thanks.
Had a look around that traders site - if you register your email they have numerous other podcasts and a nice pdf transcript of an interview they done with Edward Thorp - (Beat The Dealer - BlackJack legend)
Regarding 'The Professor' Nick Mordin - as i am from the UK used to love reading his articles in the Racing Post Weekender/Irish Field etc and know his work very well but have been wondering for a while what happened to him - Has he gave up the Game , Retired , working abroad? I even enquired to The Racing Post but even that came up blank. I know he was on good terms with Cary Fotias - The Xtras (sadly passed - Blinkers Off - great book)
Can you shed any light as he is missed in the UK.
Thanks
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I'm glad you liked the link to Dr. Z's interview. It is a great podcast.
Nick and I were friends for many years and attended the races in New York regularly. He moved from NYC to Saratoga and then moved to North Carolina. Then he started consulting for a racing syndicate. I believe he moved to somewhere in the Far East. He has lived in England, S. Africa, Malasia, the U.S. and now I think he is back in Asia. I think he has wanderlust and can't stay in one place for too long.
The last time I saw him was at Cary Fotias' funeral. We used to talk by phone, but he has not contacted me in several years. I tried calling him, emailing him, and messaging him on facebook, but he seems to have disappeared.
He has family in London, but I don't know their names. They might know where he is. He is an enigma. 
PS
I could not find Beat the Racetrack on openlibrary.org.
Last edited by highnote; 08-12-2017 at 01:34 PM.
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08-12-2017, 01:51 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: ARIZONA
Posts: 2,145
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I have a mint condition of the Dr Z book, I'm willing to part with, but I'd suggest ATR PRO, with gives you the minimum & maximum payoffs by the minute. It also allows you to see what the show payoff would be if certain horses come in. It also has a host of other features & you can try it for a month for free. It's the best I've seen out there for US racing. If your betting in the UK, there are about a thousand programs making various claims but most are related to BetFair.
An interesting feature, particularly if your playing small tracks is that you can see how much your bet will affect the odds. At some small tracks, even a $20 bet can reduce your payoff significantly.
__________________
The fan base demographics are not particularly positive," he said. "I guess we can either risk alienating them or letting them die off. " -Bob Evans 6/25/2007
My posts & letters & avatars & whatever reflect solely my own world view- Born in 1948 and never an I.C.E. visit
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08-12-2017, 02:26 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
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Is This it Highnote ? - Under 'Betting at The Racetrack'
Search under 'Racetrack'
Thanks for the info on Nick 
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08-12-2017, 03:07 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91
Is This it Highnote ? - Under 'Betting at The Racetrack'
Search under 'Racetrack'
Thanks for the info on Nick |
Betting at the Racetrack is Dr. Z's book, too.
I searched for his first book "Beat The Racetrack", but it was not in openlibrary.org. Thanks for this!
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08-12-2017, 03:29 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
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Sorry Highnote , my bad - didn't know they were 2 seperate books.
Do you own 'Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets' & 'Handbook Of Sports & Lottery Markets' ?- By Ziemba - Tons of interesting papers in both.
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08-12-2017, 03:30 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91
Sorry Highnote , my bad - didn't know they were 2 seperate books.
Do you own 'Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets' & 'Handbook Of Sports & Lottery Markets' ?- By Ziemba - Tons of interesting papers in both.
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Yes. I have them both. Efficiency is a classic.
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