Becoming a winning player...

[dutchboy]

I don't think it is recorded in any pp's. There was an article written about Ernie Dahlman that indicated he had people at the tracks call him in Vegas with the information. Been a while since I read it but my impression was that the shoes worn may have been very important to him. Since he wagers 10+ million a year there may be something to it.

Perhaps if you type his name in Google and search you might find the article.

Originally Posted by sally

Where do you find that info about the shoes? I don't see it on any pp's I've used...

[dutchboy]

Originally Posted by sally

Where do you find that info about the shoes? I don't see it on any pp's I've used...

Dahlman also pays close attention to pace, or the time for each quarter mile of a race, which he jots down in one of two fat, spiral-bound notebooks. The other is devoted to his overriding preoccupation, horseshoes. Years ago, Dahlman began noticing something funny about horses equipped with mud calks, cleats that some trainers use for extra traction when rain turns dirt into mud. Dahlman noted that even when rain failed to materialize, a lot of horses seemed to improve several lengths when wearing mud calks for the first time.

He began keeping detailed records, and he now considers it his biggest edge. It's the reason he loves Golden Gate Fields, near San Francisco. It rains a lot there, so plenty of mediocre-seeming horses are switching to mud calks for the first time and then sneaking into exactas at good prices. A second reason for loving Golden Gate is that the track posts very detailed shoe information before each race. Not all mud shoes are created equal, in Dahlman's view. Mud nails, which turn shoes into a kind of hobnailed boot, make no difference, in his opinion. But jar calks, which have a kind of high heel, do. The New York tracks do not provide detailed shoe information, so 10 minutes before every race, the phone in Dahlman's office rings. It's a man named Gene (Dahlman professes not to know his last name), a sharp-eyed informant in New York who stands by the paddock with a pair of binoculars and relays shoe information to Dahlman.

"No one," says Chip Taylor, "has made as much money off shoes as Ernie has."

[Semipro]

lone closers -play most of your bankroll at tracks you know inside out-I like to play dirt hate turf and poly-I find most winners in claiming ranks.If you play a favorite know it's going to win betting a losing favorite will cause self doubt and confidence is key.Trust your instints and select Your races because You like them.Fresh fillies you gotta love um!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Fundamentals....

Understand your comfort zone. Money management is more important than handicapping ability.

Are you a horizontal player? Vertical? Don't have a preferance? Don't know? Figure it out.

You need to have a plan of attack. You need to set goals. (Daily and Longterm)

Simple approach. Study the condition of each race, and then proceed with a contender analysis. Eliminate horses that CAN'T win. Focus on the contenders. Attempt to narrow them down to four.

Don't overlook the value of the dime superfecta. I have had 8 signers this year utilizing this pool, and not one of those tickets cost more than $48. If you have to use the ALL button...... use it in the show hole. Look for a race with 10 entrants or more.

Build an arsenal of handicapping tools. TVG's Rich Perloff often refers to his Handicapper's Toolbox, but a toolbelt is a good place to start.

Value is found in the exotics. Pay attention to Santa Anita's Pik5 wager. No consolations and a $1 base. Sunday, Oct. 7, Pik5 paid $65,000... 5 of 6 in the Pik6 paid $3,000 with the pool carried over. Saturday, Oct. 6, Pik5 paid $85,000..... 5 of 6 in the Pik6 paid $2,000 with the pool carried over. The weekday Pik5 pools often exceed the Pik6 pools.

Pool priority. Pik4....Pik5....Pik6....Superfecta....Pik3....Trif ecta....Pik9.

A single can be invaluable. Two singles can be the holy grail.

Read the works of Mark Cramer, and by all means.....

do

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice post Hajck...thanks for that!

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

You need to have a plan of attack. You need to set goals. (Daily and Longterm)

Great post. Can you expand on what you do for goal-setting? Thanks.

[keilan]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

Fundamentals....



Are you a horizontal player? Vertical? Don't have a preferance? Don't know? Figure it out.


Pool priority. Pik4....Pik5....Pik6....Superfecta....Pik3....Trif ecta....Pik9.

I'm confused -- why is it important to understand whether I have a preference for horizontal vs. vertical play? This is perhaps the silliest piece of advice I've read in sometime.

Pool priority and no exactor mentioned --- if a player has any intention about playing tri's and supers a good place to start is learning to win playing the x's.

We all beat to our own drummer but either I misread your post or ..............

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by sally

may I ask a question.... what about "pattern recognition"? For instance, a horse runs in the money 2nd start back then throws in a clunker for no apparent reason... next race wins-- I've seen that before... any thoughts on that sort of thing?

I have a few. Pattern recognition has been mentioned. I believe pattern recognition is mostly horse attitude. Being sharp is one thing, staying sharp is another. Horses are finnicky.

But, there is the great unknown, imo. And for that it is one of the major vagaries of the game that you can't model in a database, or anything else really. In general we are cannon-fodder for it: The horse who throws in a clunker can do so for a few reasons (and more I am sure that I will leave off): 1) Soreness. Not there to see by the trainer, or the naked eye, and the horse is entered and gets beat by a football field. The horse then gets a hock injected, or a sesamoid shocked, given three weeks and bam, he is right back on form. 2) Allergies: In summer months some horses fill with mucous due to them and when scoped after the race it is noticed and treated. A blood can be taken to confirm. 3) Sickness: Horses race sick all the time, and the trainer will not know it. Result: clunkerooski. 4) Bleeding. Horses bleed thru lasix all the time. Sometimes worse than others.

As a rule, if a horse throws a clunker but he is in to go pretty quickly after, I would not be afraid to bet him back, because the trainer knows and has diagnosed the problem. Long layoffs are more severe of a problem.

If you go to the Hong Kong JC site, you will see vet reports on all horses after they race poorly. It is mandatory and it is relayed to the bettor. You will notice some of this stuff. I do not play Hong Kong, of course, but I would bet dollars to donuts that most clunkers are defined by the above, and I would bet most horses bounce back quickly from those with quality horsemanship.

Those are my crazy theories on that.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by banacek

Great post. Can you expand on what you do for goal-setting? Thanks.

Your daily goal should be basic. If you take $100 to the track with you, maybe you want to double that. If at anytime during the day you reach that goal, you put the money in your pocket, and leave accomplishing your goal. Should you hit a $150 exacta to meet your goal, feel free to take the $50 and set a secondary goal with it, but don't dip back into your accomplished goal. Don't be afraid to set lofty goals, but make them realistic. If you bet to WIN, your strategy might be to grind it out. If you are a Pik6 player, be prepared to endure long losing streaks. Personally, if I invest $100, my goal is to walk with a grand.

Longterm goals are somewhat more subjective. You may want to increase your bottom line from year to year. You may want to improve your annual ROI. Keeping copious records will assist in this endeavor.

Once the goals are set, you need to figure out the best method, for you, to accomplish them. I used to be a big exacta player, but when my records showed that my ROI was significantly higher with Pik4's, Pik6's, and superfectas, I opted to focus on those pools instead.

Find you niche, be patient, and strike when the iron is hot.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by keilan

I'm confused -- why is it important to understand whether I have a preference for horizontal vs. vertical play? This is perhaps the silliest piece of advice I've read in sometime.

Pool priority and no exactor mentioned --- if a player has any intention about playing tri's and supers a good place to start is learning to win playing the x's.

We all beat to our own drummer but either I misread your post or ..............

Silly? Some handicappers are exceptional at picking winners, but fall short when trying to figure out who trip in 3rd or 4th. They may not want to swim in the Superfecta pools, and focus on the WIN and Pik3/4 pools.

Your exactor comment is valid, but please refer to my prior post as to my personal approach. I have hit the biggest exacta in the history of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but rarely to I play the exactas anymore. You are right though, they are a good place to start.

Figure out the beat you march to....... we are on the same page.

[jcwilb]

With all due respect Hajck, and I believe this has been covered before on this board, I can't understand how someone can double up and go home. My best days as a handicapper have been unexpected days where I get on a heater and win 8 of 10 bets. If I look back and take these days out of my bankroll, I am a losing player. These are usually BIG days...

Logic says that if you find a race you like, and you feel you have an advantage, it doesnt matter what your balance for the day is (as long as its within the limits of your bankroll) you should place the wager. Even if its at Australia B right before bedtime.

This isnt meant as a jab, and from your previous posts, i'm sure you do just fine.

I'd be happy to buy you a beer at Emerald sometime to discuss this further

[keilan]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

Silly? Some handicappers are exceptional at picking winners, but fall short when trying to figure out who trip in 3rd or 4th. They may not want to swim in the Superfecta pools, and focus on the WIN and Pik3/4 pools.

Your exactor comment is valid, but please refer to my prior post as to my personal approach. I have hit the biggest exacta in the history of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but rarely to I play the exactas anymore. You are right though, they are a good place to start.

Figure out the beat you march to....... we are on the same page.

Horizontal vs. vertical play isn't the thought process I would recommend to someone in the early stages of learning the game. Personally - a player imo should play to a sequence of races or wagers within a race or both where he feels that he has an advantage/edge over the crowd.

To predetermine whether someone is horizontal or vertical player ensures that the good player will miss plenty of wagering opportunities. To argue otherwise is silly, yep I said it again.

Good players are versatile, great players will make "chicken soup" out of "chicken shit" and losing players are often one dimensional in their thinking.

A decent handicapper will make plays into pools based upon his level of confidence within a race or group of races.

This isn't my first barbecue

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by keilan

Horizontal vs. vertical play isn't the thought process I would recommend to someone in the early stages of learning the game.

Then don't do it! The thread wasn't directed at novices and neophytes. I think that understanding your strengths and weaknesses is key to becoming a winning player.

To predetermine whether someone is horizontal or vertical player ensures that the good player will miss plenty of wagering opportunities. To argue otherwise is silly, yep I said it again.

This is just one of the beauties of our sport: Five handicappers can look at the exact same scenerio and come up with five valid perspectives.....all different. Let's just say that Player "A" bets every race and manages to show a small profit while putting 5 grand through the windows, while Player "B" will berate this practice because he chooses to make one or two selective plays a week and show a similar profit while betting $1,000. While Player "B's" ROI will be superior, both bottom lines are the same. Is Player "B" a better handicapper than Player "A"? In my book, they are equal. Many would argue this point. Just another perspective.

Good players are versatile, great players will make "chicken soup" out of "chicken shit" and losing players are often one dimensional in their thinking.

....and though you won't find me employing a show parlay in my arsenal, far be it from me to disparage anyone that shows a profit doing it.

A decent handicapper will make plays into pools based upon his level of confidence within a race or group of races.

Truer words were never written!

This isn't my first barbecue

Not my first BBQ either, and when I looked at what you were serving at yours, I'm not sure I would be partaking. I'm sure that what you are serving is delicious, but the bill of faire doesn't appear to agree with my palate. Not much meat on dem' bones.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by jcwilb

With all due respect Hajck, and I believe this has been covered before on this board, I can't understand how someone can double up and go home. I'd be happy to buy you a beer at Emerald sometime to discuss this further

I'm with ya', brother. The unit of doubling your money was a conservative example. I was talking simple strategy more than philosophy. In no way do I advocate merely doubling your money as a viable strategy, but some people would be very comfortable with that ROI. As for that beer....I'll see you next April!

[keilan]

Why don't you drop by the WR when a few of us are playing. Usually we attract plenty of good players and we'll all decide for ourselves who has meat on dem bones.

And don't flatter ourself thinking that any of us would seriously wager on your selections.

Here's something to chew on in the meantime -- I've seen a good many mediocre players get involved only in supers because that wager allowed them to get lucky occasionally.

Not saying you fall in that category but we'll see