it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Really?

So--- because the U.S. breeding practices are deficient in breeding for stamina, and the U.S. racing program is seriously lacking in races over 1-1/4 miles, let alone 1-1/2 miles

....its the HORSES who run long classic routes who are *mediocre*??

I guess I'm just a big fan of classic distance horses.


I'm not going to go thru the list, but Palace Malice, Tonalist, and others have done quite well after the Belmont.

The list you can quote the last 18 years (starting about 2000) is pretty small relative to other major Grade 1 races that are run for three year olds.

Birdstone for example, a nice horse, won 1 more race if I recall, it was the travers so I think of him as one of the better Belmont winners. Tonalist, Palace Malice, and American Pharoah were solid.

I mean even a horse like Drosselmeyer was woefully average (for our Classic winners) despite two really big wins.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I believe Blended Citizen is the only horse with the Raise A Native-Northern Dancer sire/dam sire nick.

Free Drop Billy has Nothern Dancer and Mr. Prospector all over. Mr. Prospector certainly lived up to his namesake as a stallion. Is there an american graded stakes horse without him somewhere in their bloodline

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.

The race was set up for him in the Wood but what I did not like was how he bore in badly at the eighth pole.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jocko699

The race was set up for him in the Wood but what I did not like was how he bore in badly at the eighth pole.

Agree about the race set up, but he took advantage of it and you have to respect that. How many times has a horse had the set up and could not take advantage. Boring in was not nice, but at least it was not a physical problem (that we know of) probably more a horse being tired after chasing down a hot pace, and I can accept that.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Free Drop Billy has Nothern Dancer and Mr. Prospector all over. Mr. Prospector certainly lived up to his namesake as a stallion. Is there an american graded stakes horse without him somewhere in their bloodline

Free Drop is a Northern Dancer sire line. I think you missed the part about Raise A Native sire line combined with Northern Dancer dam sire line. Previous winners and placers with this particular bloodline include: Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, Curlin (place), Jazil, Empire Maker, Sunday Break (show), Unshaded (show), Victory Gallup, Thunder Gulch. Some years did not have a starter featuring the combo. It was a solid angle prior to the Tapit parade.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

How many from the last 20 Peter Pans made you think they had a chance to win besides Tonalist? Blended Citizen gives me that same sort of feel. And I’m sorry, (not directed at you Lemon) but that workout was freakin awesome lol.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Free Drop is a Northern Dancer sire line. I think you missed the part about Raise A Native sire line combined with Northern Dancer dam sire line. Previous winners and placers with this particular bloodline include: Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, Curlin (place), Jazil, Empire Maker, Sunday Break (show), Unshaded (show), Victory Gallup, Thunder Gulch. Some years did not have a starter featuring the combo. It was a solid angle prior to the Tapit parade.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Agree about the race set up, but he took advantage of it and you have to respect that. How many times has a horse had the set up and could not take advantage. Boring in was not nice, but at least it was not a physical problem (that we know of) probably more a horse being tired after chasing down a hot pace, and I can accept that.

I agree with taking advantage of it. I thought I would lose when the inquiry sign came up. Still not too sure the decision was right.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

Raise A Native via tail sire line: top line. Top line Raise A Native horses have been dominant in Triple Crown races for the past several decades be it random coincidence or genetic. And when they don't win they frequently place.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

um, yes it matters WHERE the pedigree influences are, and it's not at all "arbitrary".

And in what position and in what generations ----huge difference between having an influence on sire side or mare side, etc. A certain BMS on sire side is not same as if on the dam side, etc.

It's important to know these things because there are also just certain top/bottoms that are "snakebit" for certain kinds of races, too.

Otherwise, you aren't really "pedigree handicapping".


I'm curious as to why you like FDB, by the way. I started talking about him about a week ago on here, and AFAIC, I'm one of the few who like him even a "little bit". So what is it about him, or his pedigree, that you like, specifically? I was surprised to see you bring him up

Originally Posted by MadVindication

He has ND and RaN everywhere.

I have *no* idea what this means.

[MadVindication]

I just don't see what the basis to compare such specifics are too. There's no control group. You can probably find more horses of similar pedigrees who never win maiden races than who make it to graded stakes. With how prolific sire lines are it is more like bingo than handi-capping. Coincidence.

I think betting pedigree is of course valid, as the entire sport is based on breeding and confirmation. but I don't see how looking for very specific combinations down the line makes much of a difference. to look at sires/dams down the line or to look at how sire's/dam's other progeny ran at distances/surfaces/performed in general makes sense. But probably fails more than otherwise. Especially when the sport is full of classy, expensive pedigrees.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.

He will join the ranks of Sarava, DaTara, Commendable, and now Taprit.

A little early to write off Tapwrit. He ran a solid race pressing a fast pace and perhaps making the lead a bit too soon in his comeback. Of course, its a Pletcher horse as a 4yo so you might ultimately be correct. Still, Creator would have been a better fit.

As for Commendable, that horse probably had more talent than was ever realized. He was thoroughly ground down by Lukas, who missed almost no occasion to run him after returning from a 5 month layoff following his abbreviated 2yo campaign (his debut victory was well hyped). Lukas even saw fit to run him less than four weeks after his Belmont win in the Dwyer. I guess he had to make up for skipping the Preakness with him.

[Ribot Roboto]

Sorry Pap. I promise to help you tell the difference sometime between a horse that’s ready to go and one that’s not.

[Ribot Roboto]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

There are what are known as “nicks”, i.e. certain pairings of certain lines in a pedigree work a lot better than others. The Raise A Native-Northern Dancer nick has historically and empirically been proven to be one of the best in classic distance races.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The list you can quote the last 18 years (starting about 2000) is pretty small relative to other major Grade 1 races that are run for three year olds.

Among the Triple Crown races since 2000, I think only Curlin (6 G1 wins, Preakness) California Chrome (3 G1 wins, Kentucky Derby) and Tonalist (3 G1 wins, Belmont) won more than a pair of subsequent Grade 1s.

The vast majority from all 3 races were retired at the end of their 3yo years. A handful like Bernardini, Point Given, Summer Bird, and American Pharoah won a pair of Grade 1s afterwards.

Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Union Rags, Barbaro, and I'll Have Another were all injured by the end of the Triple Crown. Major talent Empire Maker didn't last long, either.