Trakus: time per beaten length

[PhantomOnTour]

Got an early start on my winter project this year (still in progress), which is to study Trakus times, charts and the time value of a beaten length (TBL).
I've only done Belmont dirt so far, but what an eye opener it's been.

Need to preface this by saying the personal need for this study is solely because I make my own figs. Anyone who does will know that we are constantly looking to refine our numbers and make them as accurate as possible.
It also has to do with how my figs actually appear on paper when I print my pp's...long story short...I have the race figs and not the runner's figs in my pp's, so I need to use beaten lengths (BL) to get each runner's numbers.
Those who use Timeform, BRIS, Beyer or whatever will likely find this thread useless; as will those who use velocity ratings (since you use the actual fractional speed to get your numbers).
But the need to place a value on a BL is crucial for me, unless I wish to recalculate the times of every race and every runner with the variant applied (therefore giving me the actual variant adjusted time for each runner, thus his fig).

The obvious thing one notices is that in race Trakus BL differ from the BL found in the Equibase charts. What about the finish? They are often the same but differences are not uncommon.
Back to the main gist of the thread: according to Trakus, what is the average TBL?

Short Sprints (5.5f - 6f)
2f - 0.15
4f - 0.16
final - 0.18

Short Routes (1m - 1m16)
4f - 0.16
6f - 0.17
final - 0.19

My charts will look ridiculous if I have to go to 1000ths/sec to get the final TBL for tween distances like 6.5f and 7f....0.185
It appears as though the old rule of thumb that 1 length = 1/5sec is actually true at 9f and beyond....even more at 11f and beyond.
I dream of the day when Trakus is at every track and they create their own set of pp's, until then this is the best I can do, for now.
Results of a turf TBL study coming soon.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Got an early start on my winter project this year (still in progress), which is to study Trakus times, charts and the time value of a beaten length (TBL).
I've only done Belmont dirt so far, but what an eye opener it's been.

Need to preface this by saying the personal need for this study is solely because I make my own figs. Anyone who does will know that we are constantly looking to refine our numbers and make them as accurate as possible.
It also has to do with how my figs actually appear on paper when I print my pp's...long story short...I have the race figs and not the runner's figs in my pp's, so I need to use beaten lengths (BL) to get each runner's numbers.
Those who use Timeform, BRIS, Beyer or whatever will likely find this thread useless; as will those who use velocity ratings (since you use the actual fractional speed to get your numbers).
But the need to place a value on a BL is crucial for me, unless I wish to recalculate the times of every race and every runner with the variant applied (therefore giving me the actual variant adjusted time for each runner, thus his fig).

The obvious thing one notices is that in race Trakus BL differ from the BL found in the Equibase charts. What about the finish? They are often the same but differences are not uncommon.
Back to the main gist of the thread: according to Trakus, what is the average TBL?

Short Sprints (5.5f - 6f)
2f - 0.15
4f - 0.16
final - 0.18

Short Routes (1m - 1m16)
4f - 0.16
6f - 0.17
final - 0.19

My charts will look ridiculous if I have to go to 1000ths/sec to get the final TBL for tween distances like 6.5f and 7f....0.185
It appears as though the old rule of thumb that 1 length = 1/5sec is actually true at 9f and beyond....even more at 11f and beyond.
I dream of the day when Trakus is at every track and they create their own set of pp's, until then this is the best I can do, for now.
Results of a turf TBL study coming soon.

Not much new here, most of us already knew that chart beaten lengths are inaccurate, and that using 1/5 (.02) seconds per beaten length, universally, is just compounding that problem. Also, using "averages" over more than 1 distance, etc., like you appear to intend on doing is also compounding the problem. If you're going to adjust the leader's/winner's times by beaten lengths, which are already inherently inaccurate, the factors you use to adjust those times really should be as accurate as possible in order to keep from compounding the already existing inaccuracies.

I've stated how I do it many times here, so I won't go into it. But, the general consensus of responses to that has always been that it makes no difference how accurate your adjustments are, it makes no difference in the long run. Of course, I vehemently disagree, but that's just my personal experience.

The fact of the matter is that times per beaten length are absolutely dependent on the "speed" at which the horses are running at the time, and since we can't know exactly what speed the horses were running at the time of the chart caller's beaten length estimations, the best we can do is calculate an average speed for that particular fraction's distance, based on that fraction leader's posted time. Yes, this is not accurate, but at present it is about as accurate as we can get.

Trakus should help the accuracy of the calculations I would think, but we still have to make those calculations based on some fractional time, and the leader's time is all we are given, so that must be what we use. Of course, in order to create good pace and speed figures, or velocity ratings for that matter, we must also incorporate the track variant into those calculations, to some degree or other, which is another problem in itself.

Good luck with your project!!

[cj]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Got an early start on my winter project this year (still in progress), which is to study Trakus times, charts and the time value of a beaten length (TBL).
I've only done Belmont dirt so far, but what an eye opener it's been.

Need to preface this by saying the personal need for this study is solely because I make my own figs. Anyone who does will know that we are constantly looking to refine our numbers and make them as accurate as possible.
It also has to do with how my figs actually appear on paper when I print my pp's...long story short...I have the race figs and not the runner's figs in my pp's, so I need to use beaten lengths (BL) to get each runner's numbers.
Those who use Timeform, BRIS, Beyer or whatever will likely find this thread useless; as will those who use velocity ratings (since you use the actual fractional speed to get your numbers).
But the need to place a value on a BL is crucial for me, unless I wish to recalculate the times of every race and every runner with the variant applied (therefore giving me the actual variant adjusted time for each runner, thus his fig).

The obvious thing one notices is that in race Trakus BL differ from the BL found in the Equibase charts. What about the finish? They are often the same but differences are not uncommon.
Back to the main gist of the thread: according to Trakus, what is the average TBL?

Short Sprints (5.5f - 6f)
2f - 0.15
4f - 0.16
final - 0.18

Short Routes (1m - 1m16)
4f - 0.16
6f - 0.17
final - 0.19

My charts will look ridiculous if I have to go to 1000ths/sec to get the final TBL for tween distances like 6.5f and 7f....0.185
It appears as though the old rule of thumb that 1 length = 1/5sec is actually true at 9f and beyond....even more at 11f and beyond.
I dream of the day when Trakus is at every track and they create their own set of pp's, until then this is the best I can do, for now.
Results of a turf TBL study coming soon.

Does any of this really matter though, since we can see the actual times for the horses at each point of call? I think the "beaten lengths" are just a concession to people that are used to seeing it that way.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cj

Does any of this really matter though, since we can see the actual times for the horses at each point of call? I think the "beaten lengths" are just a concession to people that are used to seeing it that way.

I know you don't advocate using raw times, right?
Those individual times are raw numbers, but what if the track was slow or fast that day?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

Does any of this really matter though, since we can see the actual times for the horses at each point of call? I think the "beaten lengths" are just a concession to people that are used to seeing it that way.

I have not really looked at Trakus data, but if each horse's times are accurate, as accurate as the leader's time, then the only thing left is the variant.

Most vendors, and many of us who also calculate horse's running styles and early speed points, use the beaten lengths and position in those calculations. Of course, if we had access to each horse's actual fractional times, we could use the gaps in those times for the beaten lengths portion of those calculations.

[PhantomOnTour]

I am not advocating a method to anyone.
I need to adjust for beaten lengths for the reasons I stated in the OP.
My "software", if you will, DOES NOT have each runners individual fig printed...it only has the race fig.
Thus the need to adjust for BL.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I know you don't advocate using raw times, right?
Those individual times are raw numbers, but what if the track was slow or fast that day?

Not saying use raw times at all, just that beaten lengths aren't necessary if you have the times. Could help with assigning running styles, but the same can be accomplished using "beaten time".

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cj

Not saying use raw times at all, just that beaten lengths aren't necessary if you have the times. Could help with assigning running styles, but the same can be accomplished using "beaten time".

I concur, and i'm sure most players here (esp CJ and Raybo) have each runners figs automatically calculated by their software (once the race figs have been determined) and incorporated into their pp's....or they purchase pp's that have this already done for them.

Me...still old school PP Generator and makin the most of it
I just can't beat a free program (PP Gen) with $1 downloads per card.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I concur, and i'm sure most players here (esp CJ and Raybo) have each runners figs automatically calculated by their software (once the race figs have been determined) and incorporated into their pp's....or they purchase pp's that have this already done for them.

Me...still old school PP Generator and makin the most of it
I just can't beat a free program (PP Gen) with $1 downloads per card.

LOL - you might want to rethink that last sentence.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by raybo

LOL - you might want to rethink that last sentence.

Got something better?
I am all ears, brother.

I need to be able to store my own notes and figs & have them incorporated into the pp's.

[Robert Fischer]

without trakus, AFAIK the standard for beaten lengths @ the finish are 0.18 seconds.

[Cratos]

An excellent explanation:

“The fact of the matter is that times per beaten length are absolutely dependent on the "speed" at which the horses are running at the time, and since we can't know exactly what speed the horses were running at the time of the chart caller's beaten length estimations, the best we can do is calculate an average speed for that particular fraction's distance, based on that fraction leader's posted time. Yes, this is not accurate, but at present it is about as accurate as we can get.

Trakus should help the accuracy of the calculations I would think, but we still have to make those calculations based on some fractional time, and the leader's time is all we are given, so that must be what we use. Of course, in order to create good pace and speed figures, or velocity ratings for that matter, we must also incorporate the track variant into those calculations, to some degree or other, which is another problem in itself.”

I will add that the significant difference between the Trakus methodology and the conventional methodology is that before Trakus the race times of horses were given by speed points against predetermined points on the race track and the distance and time of each horse except the leader at the Point of Call (POC) was estimated in something called a “length” (which to this day has yet to have a definitive metric value) and converted into time.

Trakus is totally difference because it is using a speed curve which measures both time and distance travelled at or between two predetermined points.
Therefore the beaten length methodology is not needed unless one wanted to use it as a convenience, but they should understand what “Raybo” explained in his post.