an alternative explanation

[papillon]

interesting data regarding winning weights for the gotham since 1990:

only 6 horses since 1990 have won the gotham carrying more than 116lbs
and only 1 since 1998; during 22 years only 4 horses have won it carrying 120lbs or more, the last horse to win it carrying 120lbs or more was in 2003.

but between 1967-1998, 14 horses won it carrying 120lbs or more, easy goer, in 1989 was the last horse to win it carrying hansen's weight, 123lbs, additionally, of those 14 horses, 3 carried 126lbs, 6 carried 123lbs, and only 7 horses won it carrying 116lbs or less. hansen will be carrying more weight than dr. fager win he won it 1967.

the most significant change between pre-1990 and post 1990, is lasix.

interesting data on the FOY, since 2008 no high weight has won, and several winners were very low weights, like quality road, who won carrying only 114lbs. Soldat, Eskendereya, and Cool Coal Man were all low or lower weights. The best placed highweights finished 3rd (THAS and Court Vision) and 2nd (Capt. Canyman Can).

Of the winners, 2 made it to the derby and ran poorly, 1 was retired before the derby, and 1 was shelved for a full year after scratching from the derby.

(sorry to not go back very far Gulfstream doesn't provide a nice list like NYRA, so I had to look up all the weights myself and I got bored after 5 years).

i didn't post it ahead of time, but using my theory i was predicting that creative cause and drill would not win the san vicente. creative cause was 3rd out of 4, and drill only just won and had trouble getting by the lightweight horse.

for today, junebugred is up against it at 122lbs, especially since several of the horses he's running against will only be carrying 115lbs. based on my theory, it is unlikely he will win--however, he is one of the 3 yos who has beaten lightweights carrying weight this year, so if he finishes in the money, even if doesn't win--he could be a very strong horse.

secret circle has a fairer race weight wise, if he can win, then i would discount him moving forward, based on my theory.

[Tom]

Interesting post, papillon. Something to dig into a little.
Seems to correspond somewhat to the decline in Beyers.

[papillon]

opps, i meant to say if secret circle can't win it, he should be discounted moving forward (sorry).

also, i confused junebugred with mr. bowling--junebugred was the highweight (122lbs), but it was mr. bowling who has won as a highweight already this year (he's one of the only ones that have, along with drill).

results of 1st southwest by weight: 115, 117, 115 (the three high weights were 5 (119),6 (122), and 7(119)

results of 2nd southwest by weight: 117, 115, 117 (all horses in this race were at 115 or 117)

results of san vicente by weight: 123 (by a bob), 118, 123 (1 length back)

[Robert Goren]

Willie Shoemaker always carried a lot of dead weight and he still won a lot of races. If there is anything to be said about dead weight, it that jockeys who don't have to carry it might weaker than the jockeys that do because they have to put so much effort into making their weight. But even that logic is pushing a point. If you get down to point where weight is effecting your decision on which horse to bet in a race then you should probably move on to the next race without betting.

[turninforhome10]

Is there anyway to tell if the highwieght was rated such after a win. Everybody always talks about a bounce after a big effort. I am firm believer this bounce is usually caused by a move up in condition. I like what your doing here. My only thought is that most horses that win in the events leading up to the Derby have to win to move forward. How many of the highweights made it to the Derby?

[Tom]

I would have to look at the PPs, but we know that no 3yo won two Gr1 races in last year's triple crown run.

[papillon]

robert, at this point i'm not really using this for betting purposes, it's more just to satisfy my curiosity and to see if there is something more going on with the outcomes of these 3 yo races other than, "failure to progress/regressing/better horses getting late starts etc."

if the pattern continues to hold, and if i find more historic evidence of it as well, then the whole prep race series maybe be seriously flawed--and the stark contrast of pre-1998 and post 1998 gothams is really hard to ignore--at first it was only a hunch that lasix may be why they can't handle weight anymore, but looking at that list...i don't know, what else happened universally in the 1990s to so change which weight class dominates? it can't be the steroids ban because that came later...

however, that being said, until the weight for age races start up with the state derbies, i'm going to be very wary of betting a highweight for anything better than show...and the lower the lowweights are, and the higher the highweights are, in a given race, the more wary i'll be.

turninforhome, the thing about these races is that the weight allowances don't really tell you anything about stepping up or down in class--they are pretty arbitrary: a horse that won a grade 1 last august at 2 but has lost every race since, will be the high weight in all of these races, even if he losses them all (see drill)--that's nuts!

whereas a horse that debuts in december, winning 2-3 ungraded races in row, will stay a low weight even after they win a grade 2 or 3, until the weight for age races, where they will take a huge step up in weight. and some will go from a super lowweight of 115-116 lbs straight into the derby at 126lbs, because they won a rich early prep, and then were wrapped in bubble wrap to wait for the KY derby.

looking at the "inconsistencies" and injuries of the past few years, it seems to me what you're seeing time and time again are horses literally buckling under the weight the first time they are asked to carry it. the other thing your seeing is high weight horses who don't end up starting the KY derby, like THAS-- he may have been hurt, but he also could have just been shelved for failing to meet "expectations." he came in 3rd as high weight twice in row, and was written off for it--but he may have been great (though personally i don't think he can win over 120lbs--i think he's like mission impazible...he also came in 3rd in the final race of the series which was at equal weight, according to my theory that is significant--if weight is holding a horse back, then he should bounce back at equal weights a la lookin at lucky).

i need to go over the paths the high weights have taken over the past few years--but my hunch is that all who made it to the ky derby finished well, even if they didn't win. also, some years there may be more high weight horses than others, esp. if the 2 yo season is totally dominated by 1 horse, like uncle mo--which of course skews everything because the sample size is too small.

tom, thanks for the kind words!

[Fastracehorse]

wins the Spiral by open lengths at 121

wins the Derby by the same margin at 126

misses in the Pim by 1/2 length - but beats 12 horses at 126 ( same Beyer in the Derby )

lost irons in the Belmont at 126 - lay-off

he really had a nice run

the way i think is that these horses are over-run - and it's the nature of being run-down that beats them - not the weight - but i appreciate you guys for your input cause that Gotham stat post-1990 is interesting

fffastt

[papillon]

predictions for this weekend based on weight assignments theory--

risen star

el padrino at 116 lbs should win, mr. bowling, ted's folly, and shared property, all at 120 lbs, no better than 3rd.

mr. bowling has beaten other 3 yos as the high weight once already this year--if he finishes well again, even if he doesn't win--he could be a very good horse for the upcoming weight for age races

note if el padrino wins, he will be considered a superstar, but he really won't have answered any outstanding questions--we already know he can get 1 1/16th at 116lbs....if he looses, i would discount him for the upcoming weight for age races.

borderland derby

all horses are at 121 lbs, i don't have the pps yet--will update saturday when i get the pps

if i had a champion 2 yo, who already had plenty of earnings for the KY derby, this is the race i would have started my horse in, the race is fairer due to the equal weights, and it would tell you a lot more about where your horse is at than a race where you might get trounced by a horse carrying 6 lbs or more, less than you.

FOY

discrete dancer at 116lbs, should win; union rags at 122lbs, algorithms at 120lbs and fort loudon at 120lbs, no better than 3rd, with algorithms over union rags.

if discrete dancer can't win at this weight, i would completely discount him for any of the upcoming weight for age races, even if he finishes well. and as with el padrino, if he wins, he'll be a superstar, but all we will know is he can get 1 1/16th at 116s lbs (but not even a proper two turn 1 1/16).

i still need to review the el camino real, but on sunday ill try to give the average placings for all of the high weights so far this year by weight.

[Tom]

Put it out there before the race - I like that.

I have access to the weights carried in my data, but I need to use the newer
version to get it. My current DB doesn't have that field in it.
Once I get it all revised, I can do a lot more checking on this idea. You have me curious, as I have pretty much not even looked at weight for 20 years.

[papillon]

congrats to union rags--he showed his class by winning well while giving 6 lbs to the field

as promised, here's my data so far this year:

Number of first place finishers by weight—all distances and surfaces, excluding sham, el camino real, and borderland derby, which were all run at equal weights:

115lbs 2 out of 15 (this weight occurs very rarely)

116lbs 6 out of 15 (40%)

117lbs 1 out of 15

118lbs 1 out of 15

119lbs 0 out of 15

120lbs 1 out of 15

122lbs 3 out of 15

123lbs 1 out of 15

Number of second place finishers by weight—all distances and surfaces, excluding sham, el camino real, and borderland derby, which were all run at equal weights:

115lbs 1 out of 15

116lbs 5 out of 15 (33%)

117lbs 2 out of 15

118lbs 4 out of 15

119lbs 1 out of 15

120lbs 1 out of 15

122lbs 1 out of 15

123lbs 0 out of 15

Number of third place finishers by weight—all distances and surfaces, excluding sham, el camino real, and borderland derby, which were all run at equal weights:

115lbs 1 out of 15

116lbs 5 out of 15 (33%)

117lbs 2 out of 15

118lbs 2 out of 15

119lbs 0 out of 15

120lbs 2 out of 15

122lbs 2 out of 15

123lbs 1 out of 15

Number of races in which the low weight finished in the money: 15 (100%)

Number of races in which the high weight has finished out of the money: 7 (47%)

>>>excluding tapeta surface races, which according to my theory would aid horses in carrying weight: 50%
>>>excluding races under a mile, which according to classic weight theory would aid horses in carrying weight: 58%

Best high weight results:

Union Rags, 122lbs, first place, FOY (no caveats)

Drill, 123lbs, 7f, first place, San Vicente (caveat—less than a mile; is first because of weight, and having given 5lbs to second place)

Russian Greek, 122lbs, 1 1/16 miles, first place, Cal Derby (caveat—on tapeta, and finished out of the money in next race at equal weight)

Mr. Bowling, 122lbs, 1 mile 40, first place, Lecomte (caveat--finished last at 1 1/16 carrying 120lbs most recently)

Hansen, 122lbs, 1 mile, second place, Holy Bull (caveat—lost by 5 lengths)

Creative Cause, 123lbs, 7f, San Vicente (caveat—less than a mile, and was a length behind the first two across the line)

Alpha, 120lbs, 1 1/16 miles, first place (is fifth because weight was less than other four and he only gave 2 pounds to the rest of the field)

[papillon]

not going to keep posting here--tired of the harrassment.

i don't care about being wrong, or even being silly, but given all the bs one has no choice with but to put it up with, putting up with it for "fun" is just stupid.

for those that were interested, hope the above helps you determine if there is merit to it or not.

most stats in horse racing that some of the most officious people on this site swear by are laughed at by true statisticians and logicians as nothing more than superstitious malarkey. for causation to work, it has to have a mechanistic relationship, otherwise, its just correlation--and as every first year statistician learns, there is a a rock solid positive correlation between ice cream consumption and rape. i'll let you guess how meaningful that correlation is...

cheers.

[PaceAdvantage]

harassment? really?

That's what it's called when you post publicly on a forum and others respond with differing opinions?

Where was the "harassment" in this thread? I've gone through the thread, and don't see any...

[cj]

Fountain of Youth thread I guess.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by cj

Fountain of Youth thread I guess.

I guess...don't see any harassment over there either...

Thin skin and/or lacking the ability to entertain constructive criticism are definitely NOT desirable traits in a horseplayer.