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02-26-2019, 11:18 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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Tom mine didn't do anything till I downloaded the book. Then it made a folder in Documents called "My Kindle Content". In there inside another folder was an .azw file which I opened and that launched the Kindle and the book.
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02-26-2019, 11:19 PM
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#32
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
That's very cool. If Barry sees this thread, THANK YOU SIR!
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Just talked to Barry yesterday about his book while he's in Fallbrook CA, and told me he would stop by here at Pace shortly.....Said it's been 3 years since he's logged-on, not sure if he remembers the password though.
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02-27-2019, 12:03 AM
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#33
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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I have several .amz files in a Kindle Content file - none will work. And Not all that I bought before are there anymore.
Kindle stikes me a suspect program at best after finding at least 50 different occurrences of similar problems over the last 6 years on a Google search.
Not willing to to buy a book and hope it works.
I ordered the hard copy - I know that is technology that is proven.
Not convinced Kindle is reliable.
Why would anyone go to the trouble of making a limited use specialty program (Kindle) when a PDF works on any computer? Seems stupid.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 02-27-2019 at 12:05 AM.
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02-27-2019, 12:27 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Why would anyone go to the trouble of making a limited use specialty program (Kindle) when a PDF works on any computer? Seems stupid.
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Control of the customer. The genius that came up with the concept was a guy named (really!) King Gillette. He invented a safety razor and practically gave it away. Then he made a fortune selling razor blades for it.
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A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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02-27-2019, 12:43 AM
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#35
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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At least with his product, I have something to slit my wrists with!
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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02-27-2019, 12:49 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
At least with his product, I have something to slit my wrists with!
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I'm sure Amazon can meet that need too.
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A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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02-27-2019, 09:21 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Barry is a huge advocate of the exchange.
a fellow brother.
bet some of the ROI he used in his book would be higher betting BSP.
Allan
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02-27-2019, 09:55 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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is anyone close to giving their candid opinion on the book. i don't know what it is all about. is it just a litany of data queries on races run in north america from 2014 to present, or is it an extrapolation of the data queries to formulate a perspective of what is under bet and overbet.
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02-27-2019, 03:23 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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The book is full of stats, for instance, how you would have done if you bet every horse that added blinkers and stuff like that, but then it has subsets, so for instance, it will show how you would have done betting first time starters, but then it shows how you would have done betting first time starters that are favorites, odds 8-1 or higher, 2 year olds, 3 year olds, lasix, no lasix, MSW, MDN claiming, top pedigree, top trainer, top jockey, apprentice, etc.
But, besides the stats, Barry goes into a lot of detail about how to handicap the horses and covers a lot of ground. I found some of the stats interesting and I think it may be helpful. But his handicapping theories are fundamental and I don't think I can learn anything from them, although it's always a good reminder, I guess. For a novice, the book is excellent.
I like reading about handicapping from an expert, he's an expert, so I enjoyed it and I'm glad I bought it. There are a few things that I used to do that I got away from and the stats in the book showed that they're worth coming back to.
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02-27-2019, 06:30 PM
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#40
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Ken Masa of HTR did much of the computer research with Bary, so it will be top notch stuff.
I ordered a hard copy and got an email saying it will now ship on March 21, not March 1. Wonder if it will ship March 1 without ath autograph!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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02-28-2019, 12:22 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
The book is full of stats, for instance, how you would have done if you bet every horse that added blinkers and stuff like that, but then it has subsets, so for instance, it will show how you would have done betting first time starters, but then it shows how you would have done betting first time starters that are favorites, odds 8-1 or higher, 2 year olds, 3 year olds, lasix, no lasix, MSW, MDN claiming, top pedigree, top trainer, top jockey, apprentice, etc.
But, besides the stats, Barry goes into a lot of detail about how to handicap the horses and covers a lot of ground. I found some of the stats interesting and I think it may be helpful. But his handicapping theories are fundamental and I don't think I can learn anything from them, although it's always a good reminder, I guess. For a novice, the book is excellent.
I like reading about handicapping from an expert, he's an expert, so I enjoyed it and I'm glad I bought it. There are a few things that I used to do that I got away from and the stats in the book showed that they're worth coming back to.
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thanks pandy for your candid summation of the book, much appreciated
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02-28-2019, 06:42 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Ken Masa of HTR did much of the computer research with Bary, so it will be top notch stuff.
I ordered a hard copy and got an email saying it will now ship on March 21, not March 1. Wonder if it will ship March 1 without ath autograph!
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The wealth of stats in the book, which as you say are from Ken Massa, are impressive. In my opinion, I think readers have to be cautious of taking all of the statistics as gospel. They have to be viewed in the right context. As an example, generally speaking, Massa's stats show that blinkers off did better in both ROI and Impact Values than blinkers on. But I personally much prefer blinkers on. I've have quite a few scores over the years where I felt that the reason the horse won the race was mainly because it improved sharply in blinkers. And often the horse was a longshot.
Taking blinkers of a horse can certainly be beneficial in certain situations. Trainers sometimes like to stretch a horse out, for instance, and they'll take the blinkers off to try to get the horse to relax because they want to take it back off the pace. Or, they may be trying to wake the horse up in a future race by putting the blinkers back on.
But my point is, if you know how to use blinkers on, it can be a potent longshot angle. I learned a lot about thoroughbred handicapping from hanging out and working alongside sharp handicappers like Brad Thomas and Paul Cornman, who are both excellent trip handicappers. Brad, for instance, closely watches how young horses run in their first few starts: how green they are, how long their stride is, whether they shy from horses, whether they seem to get nervous running inside of horses, how they handle kick back, etc. Consequently, he has a good feel for which horses will benefit from adding blinkers.
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02-28-2019, 11:47 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
The wealth of stats in the book, which as you say are from Ken Massa, are impressive. In my opinion, I think readers have to be cautious of taking all of the statistics as gospel. They have to be viewed in the right context. As an example, generally speaking, Massa's stats show that blinkers off did better in both ROI and Impact Values than blinkers on. But I personally much prefer blinkers on. I've have quite a few scores over the years where I felt that the reason the horse won the race was mainly because it improved sharply in blinkers. And often the horse was a longshot.
Taking blinkers of a horse can certainly be beneficial in certain situations. Trainers sometimes like to stretch a horse out, for instance, and they'll take the blinkers off to try to get the horse to relax because they want to take it back off the pace. Or, they may be trying to wake the horse up in a future race by putting the blinkers back on.
But my point is, if you know how to use blinkers on, it can be a potent longshot angle. I learned a lot about thoroughbred handicapping from hanging out and working alongside sharp handicappers like Brad Thomas and Paul Cornman, who are both excellent trip handicappers. Brad, for instance, closely watches how young horses run in their first few starts: how green they are, how long their stride is, whether they shy from horses, whether they seem to get nervous running inside of horses, how they handle kick back, etc. Consequently, he has a good feel for which horses will benefit from adding blinkers.
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Handicapping for outliers is probably the best way to find a betting edge.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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02-28-2019, 12:37 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 198
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Hello PA people, and thanks to Replay Randall for sending me a note about this thread.
The 445-page Skeptical Handicapper not includes dozens of computer studies (the vast majority by Ken Massa of HTR) on many handicapping topics, but also my views on various handicapping methods and topics based on my more than twenty years of playing full-time. I believe that many of the results will prove surprising to many players. Just a few:
Looking at more than 44,000 favorites, those ridden by jockeys with more than 20% wins performed just about identically vs. jockeys with fewer than 10% wins.
Are first-time starters intimidated by starting from the rail? Not according to the results we found.
In every category, no matter how far the class drop vs. a class raise, droppers recorded an ROI more than 5% better than risers.
Old-time handicapping angles such as best last-race speed figure, earnings per start calculations, and form-consistency ratings have been thoroughly analyzed by the crowd and won't get the money in 2019.
I think that experienced players will get much more out of the book than beginners. For instance, I explain how to watch replays correctly (looking for trouble is a waste of time), how to find vulnerable favorites and live longshots, and which questions to consider in different types of races. But it's no fast read or get-rich-quick book.
The book is scheduled to be shipped March 21, and I'll be happy to autograph the book for anyone ordering through my website, trpublishing.com. You can read a copy of the Introduction there, or look at early chapters on the Amazon site if you have a free Kindle Cloud Reader.
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Barry Meadow
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02-28-2019, 03:32 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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I just looked at the free Kindle sample on Amazon. The screen shows two columns of print, the right column being a continuation of the text in the left column. You read that, then page down to the next two columns. Is that what the purchased Kindle version looks like?
If so, I guess I'm just going to have to wait for the print version, laid out the way God and Gutenberg intended.
__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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