Your biggest handicapping "mistakes"

[SBD400]

Ok, not maybe mistakes as we can all second guess ourselves on just about every race. But what are your biggest "mistakes" or things you need to guard against yourself?


For me, 2 things that I always have to be on the lookout for:


1) Don't look for reasons to not bet a horse you like, because you will always find something. Stick to your position and go for it.


2) Don't be afraid to bet against favorites if you don't like them, especially when it is tougher to bet against top barns. I bet NYRA, so this is a constant thing trying to take a stand against Chad, Pletcher, Rice, etc.

[MJC922]

When I've already placed a bet and then subsequently observe the horse starts to look bad and/or acts up approaching the gate. It kind of falls under the racing luck category but it's also on me because I know betting too early is less than ideal for exactly that reason. Sure some do win anyway, but not enough...

[sharkey11]

Winning my first bet at 15 years old

[CheckMark]

Man, there are tons that I could talk about, but I'll focus on 2 here

1) Having a gut feeling about a specific horse you like (non-favourite) and then reading other people's analysis on the race about said favourite so you change your mind. The majority of the time, the gut feeling is right for me.

2) Buying way too much information such as past performances and other handicapping info that it becomes increasingly difficult to handicap each race. That is why I stick to my BetMix mixes and DRF Classic/BRIS Ultimate PP's w/Comments.

[SBD400]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Man, there are tons that I could talk about, but I'll focus on 2 here

1) Having a gut feeling about a specific horse you like (non-favourite) and then reading other people's analysis on the race about said favourite so you change your mind. The majority of the time, the gut feeling is right for me.

2) Buying way too much information such as past performances and other handicapping info that it becomes increasingly difficult to handicap each race. That is why I stick to my BetMix mixes and DRF Classic/BRIS Ultimate PP's w/Comments.

That first one is common. I specifically don’t listen to broadcasts as I don’t want any influence at all. I will pay attention to the odds of course to make sure I didn’t miss anything. But at end of day, I spend a lot of time on this sport, so I need to listen to my opinions , not anyone else’s.

[JustRalph]

Not betting more on War Emblem in the Derby

[Ahorsewithnoname]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Man, there are tons that I could talk about, but I'll focus on 2 here

1) Having a gut feeling about a specific horse you like (non-favourite) and then reading other people's analysis on the race about said favourite so you change your mind. The majority of the time, the gut feeling is right for me.

2) Buying way too much information such as past performances and other handicapping info that it becomes increasingly difficult to handicap each race. That is why I stick to my BetMix mixes and DRF Classic/BRIS Ultimate PP's w/Comments.

Referring to # 1
I usually don't listen to the talking heads on TVG. I turn the volume down. You have to wonder that a good percentage of the bets they come up with are losing wagers.

[Ahorsewithnoname]

Originally Posted by Ahorsewithnoname

Referring to # 1
I usually don't listen to the talking heads on TVG. I turn the volume down. You have to wonder that a good percentage of the bets they come up with are losing wagers.

I should say FanDuel* not TVG.

[maddog42]

My favorite play in all of racing is (like most of us) is early speed. I cash a lot of longshots with it, and have terrible losing streaks. And obviously you can't bet them all. Twice this past year 2023, I talked myself off of early speed longshots because of these long losing streaks with it. I know that is part of the game and "you can't win them all" and all that stuff. But it has cost me 2 scores in pick 5's. 15k and 28k. With either of those 2 hits and I have a winning year. My focus has been refining my method....I'm gonna go over the last six months and see if I can improve.

[SBD400]

Originally Posted by MJC922

When I've already placed a bet and then subsequently observe the horse starts to look bad and/or acts up approaching the gate. It kind of falls under the racing luck category but it's also on me because I know betting too early is less than ideal for exactly that reason. Sure some do win anyway, but not enough...

Would love to know some numbers on that, but I guess it also depends on how bad they act up and whether that is normal for that horse.


There was a race a couple of years ago at Aqueduct at beginning of winter season, I really like this horse, but it was coming off of grass races to dirt, I still liked the horse. They interviewed the trainer about a minute before post, he said he had no idea how horse would run, I thought about cancelling bet but glad I didn't as horse won at 8 to 1. Usually once I make a bet I just stick with it.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Ahorsewithnoname

Referring to # 1
I usually don't listen to the talking heads on TVG. I turn the volume down. You have to wonder that a good percentage of the bets they come up with are losing wagers.

It's a thing that I don't do anymore. I stopped doing that last summer after getting my a** handed to me at Saratoga most days listening/hearing others opinions and then watching the horse I had before go out and win.

I just trust what I do and keep it that way. I'll listen to other on-air analysts talk about who they like etc. but it comes down to my own approach first and always.

That is why I say now: Trust your gut. Trust your own opinions and stick to them. You don't know if and when that big score will come up!

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

It's a thing that I don't do anymore. I stopped doing that last summer after getting my a** handed to me at Saratoga most days listening/hearing others opinions and then watching the horse I had before go out and win.

I just trust what I do and keep it that way. I'll listen to other on-air analysts talk about who they like etc. but it comes down to my own approach first and always.

That is why I say now: Trust your gut. Trust your own opinions and stick to them. You don't know if and when that big score will come up!

I agree. There is a tendency to want to hear other opinions to learn and I am sure there are times that their opinions can prove to be of value. But even if you stick to your guns, there are subtle influences that can really screw up your execution. If anything it is probably best to listen to the analysis before to see if you missed anything (talking horses, pre game show etc) re-evaluate what you came up with and then turn on the mute key after that. That, I think can work to your benefit. If you rely on the physicality analysis I would suggest you create a real thorough write up of your opinion when capping a race and make sure that is your focal point.

Fatigue and lack of focus is already a huge enemy, especially when playing multiple tracks. Everything else is just noise that further clouds your judgement. This game requires an objectivity. Any commentary good, bad or indifferent imo takes you further away from that objective state of mind. Not really sure why (maybe it just makes you lazy brained) but that has just been my experience.

Btw your last sentence is so true. Opportunities can pop up at the strangest times in this game (races we don’t like, cards we are not crazy about, we have been getting our head handed to us….) and a lot of times we fail to fully capitalize because we are not in the right state of mind.

[ultracapper]

$5 superfecta

Empire Maker, Peace Rules
Empire Maker, Peace Rules, Funny Cide
Empire Maker, Peace Rules, Funny Cide, Thatswhatimtalkingabout
Peace Rules, Funny Cide, Thatswhatimtalkingabout

You know, tighten the ticket up so the investment isn't so out of line.

I was literally ill for 3 days.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Btw your last sentence is so true. Opportunities can pop up at the strangest times in this game (races we don’t like, cards we are not crazy about, we have been getting our head handed to us….) and a lot of times we fail to fully capitalize because we are not in the right state of mind.

Every year when Mnr goes down in Dec, I find myself chomping at the bit to begin betting races. Having for eight months been denied the option of wagering, I eat it, breathe it, think it and live it. Long winter afternoons spent transfixed by the homing beacon of one-man monitors in dark, semi- abandoned caverns feels natural and appropriate, like a sacred ritual.

But when the weather warms and I get invitations to golf, some instinct pulls me away from those monitors-like a migratory bird feeling a northward tug.

At that point my concentration wanes and I miss things I should catch. And not all the king's horses nor all the kings men can quite put my focus together again. I could almost SWEAR that my luck also dissipates with the onset of spring.

There is just something in me, perhaps since mnr dropped winter racing, that longs for and romanticizes thoroughbred sport conducted against a cold, harsh backdrop. And that setting heightens and sustains my focus.

[thaskalos]

My biggest mistake has been "trusting my gut". It took more than 20 years for me to finally realize that it was my "gut" that had been keeping me broke for 20 years. I now know that there must be a balance between "self-confidence" and 'paranoia' if one is to survive as a bettor in this game. That has been the lesson that I have been most unwilling to learn in my own horse-betting life...much to my chagrin.