1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread

[f2tornado]

My bad. Forgot to apply the dirt filter but they still want the distance. I remember betting Dayatthespa that race and made some good money. Probably would have reconsidered had I noticed his sire. I’m far from sold on Improbable but he manages to check almost all my boxes. Will see how the draw goes.

[señorclipclop]

Let's take a look at some of City Zip's other top earners...

• Palace
• Reenesgotzip
• Work All Week
• Finest City
• Unzip Me
• Ready for Rye

Best comp on the Derby trail is Snapper Sinclair. Obviously, Improbable is much better than him, and didn't show any signs of weariness at 9f, but interesting to take into account.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Let's take a look at some of City Zip's other top earners...

• Palace
• Reenesgotzip
• Work All Week
• Finest City
• Unzip Me
• Ready for Rye

Best comp on the Derby trail is Snapper Sinclair. Obviously, Improbable is much better than him, and didn't show any signs of weariness at 9f, but interesting to take into account.

I remember really liking reenesgotozip and wanting to see him do something. He had a very nice pedigree.

[Raider]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

https://twitter.com/pinfante97/statu...31732128976897

Just wondering if you thought tacitus Buckpasser in X passing postion to far back to be considered? I have always wondered about that, how far back is to far back? His final times in the last race would suggest that it is, but i don't know and when I don't know, I ask people who might know the answer.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I came up with 28: 4-3-3

Collected, Catch a Glimpse, Dayatthespa, and Gleam Of Hope are your four winners.

A 39% ITM rate at 10F is not too shabby. I think I just convinced myself to not get caught up on the City Zip. Improbable has potent dam side.

Heres the problem with that. City Zip sired about 676 horses I believe, with over 5400 starts or somewhere in that vicinity. Only 28 starts at 10 furlongs and I saw one at 12 furlongs (up the track) but I didn't check that thoroughly. A great majority of the starts were 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile. The biggest names are all sprinters other than a few grass horses that go a distance.

That's ok if this horse was going to be a fair price. But as one of the favorites its a dicey proposition because Improbable is definitely a distance ? in this spot.
City Zips downfall was every time he went over 7 furlongs. This horse obviously handles the distance better but 10 furlongs will be a wait and see for me. If hes one of the top 4 or 5 betting choices, its hard for me to like a horse like this.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I have post Arkansas Derby. I only included horses in the top 30 in points with a qualifying race. As the field firms up I'll make the necessary changes.

Interesting that Game Winner is not in the top ten.

[Secondbest]

And Roadster.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Interesting that Game Winner is not in the top ten.

He did all the dirty work for what I believe was to set it up for Roadster. Got a big Thoro-Graph figure for it. That race also had an anomalously slow 3/4 to mile split. I rarely toss a 9F prep but that one was so goofy I’m willing to look back to the Rebel.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He did all the dirty work for what I believe was to set it up for Roadster. Got a big Thoro-Graph figure for it. That race also had an anomalously slow 3/4 to mile split. I rarely toss a 9F prep but that one was so goofy I’m willing to look back to the Rebel.

Understandable.

[Secondbest]

CJ. Now that the field is hopefully set will you post a revised array?

[Gerard02]

horses who won the Kentucky Derby, most of all, finished with Final 3/8 in 37.8 or less. The following ran their last 3/8ths in 37.8 or less.

21

However, to simplify it more, take their final 1/4’s in 25.8 or less you get

21

and have the best final 1/4’s at 24.92 and 24.24, respectively.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

CJ. Now that the field is hopefully set will you post a revised array?

Here you go. I'll revise again if Haikal scratches. The Dubai horses and the Japanese horse don't have data but I'm not really worried about any of them personally.

Name			TF	LF 	Total
Improbable		 2	 3	 5
Maximum Security	 8	 1	 9
Tacitus			 3	 7	10
Tax			 1	13	14
Tax			 5	 9	14
Country House		10	 5	15
Haikal			11	 4	15
Bodexpress		13	 2	15
By My Standards		 6	10	16
Vekoma			 4	14	18
Spinoff			 7	12	19
Roadster		12	 8	20
Code of Honor		16	 6	22
Game Winner		 9	14	23
Win Win Win		15	11	26
Cutting Humor		14	16	30
Long Range Toddy	17	17	34
War of Will		18	18	36

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by cj

Here you go. I'll revise again if Haikal scratches. The Dubai horses and the Japanese horse don't have data but I'm not really worried about any of them personally.

Name			TF	LF 	Total
Improbable		 2	 3	 5
Maximum Security	 8	 1	 9
Tacitus			 3	 7	10
Tax			 1	13	14
Tax			 5	 9	14
Country House		10	 5	15
Haikal			11	 4	15
Bodexpress		13	 2	15
By My Standards		 6	10	16
Vekoma			 4	14	18
Spinoff			 7	12	19
Roadster		12	 8	20
Code of Honor		16	 6	22
Game Winner		 9	14	23
Win Win Win		15	11	26
Cutting Humor		14	16	30
Long Range Toddy	17	17	34
War of Will		18	18	36

TVG's Candace Hare is picking the Japanese horse in her top 3. Her reasoning is that he's been running on deep, sandy tracks and is likely to improve at Churchill. I don't believe she was taking an off track into consideration, though. I'm certainly not playing him.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

TVG's Candace Hare is picking the Japanese horse in her top 3. Her reasoning is that he's been running on deep, sandy tracks and is likely to improve at Churchill. I don't believe she was taking an off track into consideration, though. I'm certainly not playing him.

I respect Candice a lot, but I'm not buying into this horse at all.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by cj

Here you go. I'll revise again if Haikal scratches. The Dubai horses and the Japanese horse don't have data but I'm not really worried about any of them personally.

Name			TF	LF 	Total
Improbable		 2	 3	 5
Maximum Security	 8	 1	 9
Tacitus			 3	 7	10
Tax			 1	13	14
Tax			 5	 9	14
Country House		10	 5	15
Haikal			11	 4	15
Bodexpress		13	 2	15
By My Standards		 6	10	16
Vekoma			 4	14	18
Spinoff			 7	12	19
Roadster		12	 8	20
Code of Honor		16	 6	22
Game Winner		 9	14	23
Win Win Win		15	11	26
Cutting Humor		14	16	30
Long Range Toddy	17	17	34
War of Will		18	18	36

thanks