Betting Cheap Claimers

[Half Smoke]

there was a bad book on betting cheap claimers by Stanford Wong


but I'm curious
how do you look at a race of cheap claimers?
do you look at the chances of it being run true to form as being less than that of a stakes race for older horses?


you would think that because they're asked to run so often that their would be more unpredictability


I've looked at it a little bit and it seemed that faves won just as often


but still, it almost seems as if there would have to be more unpredictability

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I look for dropping speed in these cheap events, horses that show good early speed and are taking a drop in class often have a decided advantage on their rivals as they become brave on the lead and the competition is often sore or hurting animals that display no closing ability.

[lamboguy]

i don't know, but all you had to do yesterday to win the Florida Derby was find the horse that broke his maiden at the very bottom and raced against the worst competition prior to this race.

giving credit to the horse, he did have good speed numbers, but for sprint distances only. obviously, the horse was easy to find for many. he only paid $11 to win.

[Immortal6]

Personal opinion here but I think recognizing track bias is even more important in lower level claimers. The horses just aren’t good enough to overcome the bias for the most part.

Seems most lower level claimers are ran at a mile or less...most of them being sprints so finding a horse that can get away from the gate cleanly to show speed is a must. And as the poster above mentioned. Always look for class droppers with some of that early speed... although they are usual easy to find as they are the odds on favorites on the tote.

[classhandicapper]

I rarely play cheap claimers anymore, but it always seemed to me that the most important thing was NOT trying to figure out who ran best race last time out using figures, trips, etc...Too many of the horses don't duplicate their last race. The goal seemed more to try to figure out who was actually going to fire their A race today and whether that was good enough to win. I used to put a lot of weight on trainer and trainer patterns. The best trainers get their horses to fire a higher percentage of the time, especially when you know it's one of their "go" moves.

[GaryG]

A thorough knowledge of trainers' methods, something that is hard to get if you do not concentrate on a particular circuit. As someone once said, Mark Cramer I think, every race is a prep

[linrom1]

Broberg, Diadoro, Navarro, Servis, Miller, and a few others is all one needs to look for: they all excel in SPRINTS too. I wonder why is that?

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

I look for dropping speed in these cheap events, horses that show good early speed and are taking a drop in class often have a decided advantage on their rivals as they become brave on the lead and the competition is often sore or hurting animals that display no closing ability.

I get what you're saying

but if a horse is dropped from a 25K allowance to a 10K claiming race his trainer is willing to risk losing him

don't you worry that this horse might be significantly weaker than he used to be?

[how cliche]

I've been crowned "king of the nags" by my peers. As a spot player, I've been asked too many times, "How in the world did you come up with that spot?" With that in mind, I've attempted unsuccessfully to coach a few guys how to do it.

Start here. Cheap horses feel pretty bad most of the time.

Next look for signs someone is feeling better.

[thaskalos]

Although my peers have never called me, "king of the nags"...I have noticed that it pays to be more forgiving of lackluster efforts in the cheap claimers. Most horses will run a seemingly "inexcusable" race after their top efforts...and it behooves the player to not be fooled by such a maneuver.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I get what you're saying

but if a horse is dropped from a 25K allowance to a 10K claiming race his trainer is willing to risk losing him

don't you worry that this horse might be significantly weaker than he used to be?

You always have to avoid big drop downs as they almost always have physical problems as no one gives away anything at the racetrack, an secondly these types are heavily bet also.

Common sense drops in class especially the hidden drops that the public misses such as dropping into a restricted claiming event after straight claimers. the best advice i can give is to watch these cheaper races and see how many of these speed types run UN-contested and are their at the wire.
You should purchase Pandy's Pro Simulcast book and you will get the full explanations of the pace advantages with the drops in class from an expert. I highly recommend.
good luck

[Tom]

I think class is much more important in the cheap races.
Read and understand the conditions of the race. Know which trainers drop and win, claim and win.

[PhantomOnTour]

Form cycles and race shapes

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

You always have to avoid big drop downs as they almost always have physical problems as no one gives away anything at the racetrack, an secondly these types are heavily bet also.

Common sense drops in class especially the hidden drops that the public misses such as dropping into a restricted claiming event after straight claimers. the best advice i can give is to watch these cheaper races and see how many of these speed types run UN-contested and are their at the wire.
You should purchase Pandy's Pro Simulcast book and you will get the full explanations of the pace advantages with the drops in class from an expert. I highly recommend.
good luck

IMO this is not true at some tracks.

Horse claimed for $20k the drops to $16k or even to $12,500 and if the purse is high enough, the horse can win, get claimed, and the owner can make a profit.

All owners and trainers of claimers are not stupid. Diodoro does this all the time at Canterbury and elsewhere.

Trainers like Diodoro and Broberg have so many horses, they move in and out of their barns all the time. They are not pets like they are to some in this hobby business.

I'm sure you can name others.

[Gakiss2]

My thoughts are that these races pay less - lower purses, so trainers are even more likely to count on their form hiding moves to cash a big ticket.

I also really liked the comment above: look for the horse that isn't feeling as bad as the others.

My current project is ranking physical fitness based on data. Looks like I need to look at overworked as well as under worked.