The New Guy Needs Help

[TheTides]

Hey Guys

Just signed on here and figured I'd start w/ an intro plus a little more

I've been following racing since childhood and betting since teens years. It was always a fun way to degen some money, but I never took it seriously. I do have a solid foundation in gambling in general, as I played poker for 10+ years as sole means of income.

As the US poker climate changed, it became too difficult for me. I was never a big baller, just a grinder. Anyway, I have a real job now which takes much of my time. Though, I've slowly been delving deeper into horses when time allows, and feel I've made SOME progress. A couple things:

1) Any (see: still largely relevant) books you might suggest? I saw 1st hand that poker books could become out-dated quickly, while others continue to stand the test of time.

2) I think my biggest hurdle right now (maybe I am wrong IDK) is finding efficient ways to bet/take advantage of an opinion. An example: Just today, I had 1 strong opinion. He was co-4th choice (6:1) in a field of seven w/ ~9:5 fav. Ended up keying underneath 4 others in EXs and bet him to WIN. It just felt extraordinarily inefficient to me, but I honestly didn't know what to do. My opinion consisted him of him being right there at the end ... maybe he wins maybe he doesn't ... but 6:1 was value imo

I obviously don't expect a "correct" answer on the above example. I just wanted to provide a little context to what I'm trying to get across.

If anyone could point me in the right general direction for 1, 2, or both, I'd appreciate any and all thoughts/criticisms ... or anything

Thanks!

[burnsy]

Take your key horse and ex. key box it with two horses instead of 4 over it. In bigger fields with longer odds you can go as high as 3 in the key box. I like the win bet you made. I always bet a horse like that to win too.

In other words stick to trying to narrow down your "Contenders" to 3 or 4. I mostly try to stick to three, my key horse and two others but there are times I have 4, 1 key horse and 3 others. If you have it narrowed down to 3 and 2 of them are what you think is a steep overlay....I will occasionally box all 3.

I am mainly an exacta player so this is my exacta strategy. When I have a good day, it works really well. If you hit one its a pretty good day. When you have a hot day you can hit a cluster of them and make some nice money. Think in combinations of numbers instead of trying to focus on one horse too. Don't wear blinkers like a horse does.

Something that really helped me out on multi race bets is Steven Crist's Exotic Tickets Instructional DVD. But I will freely admit the I am a stronger exacta player than the Multi's that go past a double. Don't bet every race, decide what races you want to attack ahead of time by evaluating the whole card. For me, its usually the highest class races on that card and I don't care for maiden races. I like having a record to evaluate, you are already speculating a great deal. If you can sharpen your exacta skills it goes a long way at "keeping you in the game" and you can even win.

[sunshine]

It’s all about the odds, continually betting below true price will inevitably result in loses. Trainers hold horses back to improve subsequent odds. Beat the odds and you will win.

[Oracle]

Six Secrets of Successful Bettors is the book I would recommend. Money management and betting is at least 50% of the game. GL

[bgbootha]

With you poker background, forget getting fancy with this...find value and play win bets.

Think of it just like you thought of pot odds your 10+ years. You won't win every race, but if you are betting into a pool expecting 6-1 and you believe your horse offers value at 3-1 or better....you have a positive expectation. Simple as that.

Now the hard part is getting your thoughts 'correct'...but that will get better and better over time.

If you are used to the grind, win bets are the best way to go. Many people love to have the big hits, I love cashing tickets and leaving the day up.

[barn32]

Specialize. Find a niche you like and master it. Spreading yourself too thin with all kinds of different plays doesn't usually work unless you're an expert.

Keep it simple. If you like turf routes then just handicap turf routes until you become an expert at turf routes. That's the idea.

Manage your money. Know the maximum you will lose on any given day before you even make your first bet. Never lose more than the maximum but it certainly is fine to lose less.

Choose your type of bets carefully. Playing the exacta, for example, might seem like a way to win more often, and make bigger scores, but it actually works just the opposite. The reason for this is that it has the tendency to spread your money too thinly thereby diluting your payoffs. But more importantly is the fact that you may have the winner all scoped out on top of three other horses only to have your winner come in but miss the exacta.

Boxing exactas dilutes your money even further.

If you can't make money win betting then it's very probable you won't make money doing any other kind of betting.

Good luck

[SandyW]

An excellent new book looks at racing from a different angle,
"Win Money Betting On Horses by Dan Horowitz"
Wait list on Amazon for this book.

At 92-years-young, Dan Horowitz has been hanging out, and winning, at race tracks for more than seven decades. Now he brings you the same handicapping techniques, money management skills and sound business practices acquired over a successful lifetime in his new book, Win Money Betting on Horses. Part memoir, part how-to, part homage to Del Mar, his favorite track of all, Win Money Betting on Horses is not just another get-rich-quick book. Rather, it is a useful resource packed with dozens of tried-and-true tips designed to tilt the odds in your favor. Whether you're a novice race goer or a longtime veteran, you'll agree that Win Money Betting on Horses is the most useful book of its kind

[fiznow]

I agree that playing a 6-1 shot to win is a must. If you play an additional exacta the costs shouldnt be higher than the money you get for win of course so that when you hit the winner but dont hit the exacta you still make a profit. Watch the will pays for the exacta and you will see if its worth playing it. Play exotics as straight as possible (I never box more than 2 horses in exactas). Also I recommend you to concentrate on special tracks or circuits.

[whodoyoulike]

Use the Search option on the header. In the first box enter Newbie, click on Search Titles Only and under Search Options - find posts from - Any Date and Older, Show Results as Threads then click Search Now.

Hope this helps. A lot of helpful suggestions.

Welcome.

[Baron Star Gregg]

It sounds like you're not completely new to the game so this book may help you. Each chapter is written by a different author (Andrew Beyer, Tom Brohamer, Steven Crist, Steve Davidowitz, Dave Liftin, James Quinn, Alan Shuback, Lauren Stich and Mike Watchmaker) on their preferred area of expertise. You'll be introduced to each area so that you can determine the parts of the game that interest you or may help identify your weaknesses.

[TheTides]

Nice to see many thoughtful responses so far! I learned in poker forums, the best way to get better is to be able to take constructive criticism. Whenever I sound ignorant - tell me!

Will definitely look into recommended books/DVDs. I did read "Six Secrets ..." several years ago - maybe time for a reread.

One thing I do not need to learn is that betting a winner is useless unless odds > estimated % chance of winning. As was said, it's just like poker, or anything else for that matter. Finding inefficiencies is basically the key to life

As far as specializing, I have found my greatest success (it's not even close) is 1 turn dirt races - in particular, Graded Stakes 1 turn dirt races. Or, in case of '12 BC Dirt Mile, many 1 turn specialists trying 2 turns. Brag Alert: I had Tapizar @ 15:1; certainly my favorite racing score (among work that was my own). Not exactly sure why I've done so much better in these races? I have a few ideas, but maybe it's just a ton of variance ... IDK

As for my EX query, or that type situation is general, I have much to learn. The advice of "Stick to WIN betting" is heard and perhaps I should be for some time. Though, certainly there are spots where playing EX(s) (in some manner or other, in addition to WIN bet) increases your EV. I get that overusing it can seem like a good idea, but after spreading so much, the net/long-term effect is negative. Admittedly, pretty clear that my spreading yesterday was insurance for my opinion. Maybe that's what I'm trying to get at: When does an EX play increase and when does it decrease the overall EV of the opinion? No easy answers, obviously

Anyway, thanks again all, and I'll be around.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Tides, welcome to the forum.

I am a win bettor who looks for value situations to take advantage of. I am very selective and will not settle for anything less than 2/1 in my play with reference to long term recordkeeping.

I will occasionally look to play a double or exacta key to maximize my advantage through well chosen select combinations . I never box any exactas as a rule since in my opinion it says that my win wager is not a confident one.

I am sure the many advanced exotic players on this site would disagree but for me this program works. Look to take advantage of the win wager and then progress with the other exotic wagers that are a source of profit for the well skilled.

Good luck!

[sunshine]

Originally Posted by sunshine

It’s all about the odds, continually betting below true price will inevitably result in loses. Trainers hold horses back to improve subsequent odds. Beat the odds and you will win.

My previous reply was a bit obvious. Throw the form book in the bin and learn to write software code. That’s what most of today’s pro’s use to make it pay.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by sunshine

My previous reply was a bit obvious. Throw the form book in the bin and learn to write software code. That’s what most of today’s pro’s use to make it pay.

You're not wrong in your previous response and sometimes it's good to remind everyone after all some of us are a little stubborn.

Btw, also welcome to the forum.

[no breathalyzer]

watch replays.. look at the hands of all the jockeys in the race.. know and learn all trainers tendencies