Has BRIS Prime Power Lost its Value?

[Wizard of Odds]

I'm seeing more data that shows that top BRIS Prime Power returning less and less on the dollar...almost same ROI as just betting favorite.

Is BRIS Prime Power now baked into the cake?

[deathandgravity]

From my database for Best Prime Power number:

........ WIN% ROI%
2016: 27.71 -22.54
2015: 26.26 -21.83
2014: 29.43 -16.97
2013: 30.14 -12.38
2012: 30.35 -14.40

No means a conclusive sample. Most of my data is NYRA, So CAL & Keeneland. About 2500 races a year in my db.

[Wizard of Odds]

Thanks!

This confirms what I am seeing. I can understand the decreasing ROI as more bettors latch on to the highest BRIS PP Rating. Especially with ever decreasing field size, I cannot understand the generally decreasing win rate? Has BRIS altered its proprietary formula for the worse?

[JustRalph]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=129439


Icymi

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=130455

[Wizard of Odds]

Thank you...I had seen those threads and it was useful to review them again.

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by deathandgravity

From my database for Best Prime Power number:

........ WIN% ROI%
2016: 27.71 -22.54
2015: 26.26 -21.83
2014: 29.43 -16.97
2013: 30.14 -12.38
2012: 30.35 -14.40

No means a conclusive sample. Most of my data is NYRA, So CAL & Keeneland. About 2500 races a year in my db.

I have actually been to Ouagadougou via the road from Abidjan
win% should be about the same . ROI more people use Bris lowering the odds

[deathandgravity]

Originally Posted by ebcorde

I have actually been to Ouagadougou via the road from Abidjan
win% should be about the same . ROI more people use Bris lowering the odds

Passed through on the road to Niamey .

Pulled a few more stats:

My DB goes back to about 2009 & approx 20,000 races

Best Prime power for all races:
WIN% ROI%
29.51 -16.14

Best ROI for Prime power was AQU sprint:
34.91 -4.90

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds

I'm seeing more data that shows that top BRIS Prime Power returning less and less on the dollar...almost same ROI as just betting favorite.

Is BRIS Prime Power now baked into the cake?

I would hazard a guess that rather than seeing changes related to the use of the Prime Power number, you're seeing:

1. More use of the various components that go into the Prime Power calculation in computer-assisted programs - speed, class, pace, form, weight, etc. In turn, this automated handicapping is used more often by the "whales", and representing an increasing percentage of handle.

2. More trainers, when seeing their horse as a top figure pick, choosing to "not try" and darken the horse's form for a later race at better odds.

I don't know many handicappers that would use a single public figure to be the dominant factor in their selections.

[Wizard of Odds]

Originally Posted by deathandgravity

Passed through on the road to Niamey .

Pulled a few more stats:

My DB goes back to about 2009 & approx 20,000 races

Best Prime power for all races:
WIN% ROI%
29.51 -16.14

Best ROI for Prime power was AQU sprint:
34.91 -4.90

Having left Yamoussoukro, I note that:

It would be interesting to view your data by year to see if it confirms the decline in Best Prime Power Rating ROI from 2009 through (first 10 months) 2016.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I would hazard a guess that rather than seeing changes related to the use of the Prime Power number, you're seeing:

1. More use of the various components that go into the Prime Power calculation in computer-assisted programs - speed, class, pace, form, weight, etc. In turn, this automated handicapping is used more often by the "whales", and representing an increasing percentage of handle.

2. More trainers, when seeing their horse as a top figure pick, choosing to "not try" and darken the horse's form for a later race at better odds.

I don't know many handicappers that would use a single public figure to be the dominant factor in their selections.

#1, May be somewhat true but I don't think whales have as much of an influence as given credit for. The automated handicapping is used by many of the average players now.

#2 Not true, not that it has never happens but it would be very rare, not anywhere close to what the average player thinks.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds

I'm seeing more data that shows that top BRIS Prime Power returning less and less on the dollar...almost same ROI as just betting favorite.

Is BRIS Prime Power now baked into the cake?

Not necessarily - I don't play the big circuit tracks and Prime Power is still a weapon at lesser ovals. Prime Power, in my experience, did not work nearly as well in turf races as on dirt. The NYRA runs more and more turf races, and in particular turf sprints, than ever. I don't remember BRISNET ever addressing this or modifying/upgrading the Prime Power formula for turf races.

Second, I think the stats shown, while interesting, are incomplete. What are the win rates and ROI on the second highest Prime Power horse? Did they go up while the stats on the top horse declined?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by deathandgravity

Passed through on the road to Niamey .

Pulled a few more stats:

My DB goes back to about 2009 & approx 20,000 races

Best Prime power for all races:
WIN% ROI%
29.51 -16.14

Best ROI for Prime power was AQU sprint:
34.91 -4.90

d&g, For the all races ROI, is that a $1.68 or $2.32 return on a $2 bet? Wasn't sure about the sign being minus or just a dash to separate two numbers. TIA

[upthecreek]

Anybody check out these stats?(From Brisnet Site)

Win up to 55% of the Time!
So, just how good is Prime Power? Take a gander at these results: based on a lengthy study of tens of thousands of races, Prime Power hits 31% top winners! That's sounds great, but when the study is broken down further and we focus strictly on dirt races, the results get even more interesting:

Top Prime Power horses by three full points (3.0+) or better score 39% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better score 46% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by ten full points (10.0+) or better score 55% of the time!

[Wizard of Odds]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Anybody check out these stats?(From Brisnet Site)

Win up to 55% of the Time!
So, just how good is Prime Power? Take a gander at these results: based on a lengthy study of tens of thousands of races, Prime Power hits 31% top winners! That's sounds great, but when the study is broken down further and we focus strictly on dirt races, the results get even more interesting:

Top Prime Power horses by three full points (3.0+) or better score 39% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better score 46% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by ten full points (10.0+) or better score 55% of the time!

..but the ROI's are all negative. If you simply took all horses with 4/5, or lower, Morning Line Odds, you will find a greater than 55% win rate...but you will also lose money.

[upthecreek]

I ran it thru my limited DB 2385 races there was 105 bets
Top bris pow +10
All Dist Dirt
Sprints were a little better .94 ROI