Has BRIS Prime Power Lost its Value?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Yes, but the level of fitness of any race-horse at any given time does have an expiration. That should also be VERY obvious if you believe that they're really flesh and blood, and not machines.

If you really believe that EVERY horse in EVERY race is entered in an attempt to win it you’ve really missed the boat when it comes to better understanding how this game operates!

Some handicappers also seem to be under impression that the only rewards available to the connections are in the form of purse monies. Well I’ve got some news for those of you who may think that way: There’s a lot more money available in the betting pools. And they’ve known it for decades!

I agree 100% with Nitro's comment.

-NCG

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I agree 100% with Nitro's comment.

-NCG

Does anyone who actually bets on horse racing really think every horse is going all out every race? The whole comment is a strawman argument for a fictional opinion no one has.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Does anyone who actually bets on horse racing really think every horse is going all out every race? The whole comment is a strawman argument for a fictional opinion no one has.

Well good for you!
You may be naive enough to think that it’s a “fictional opinion”.
But next time you’re at the track (or OTB) do a little survey of your own. Ask and see how many players (at different ages and playing skills) believe that Every horse in any particular race is trying to win it. You might be surprised.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Does anyone who actually bets on horse racing really think every horse is going all out every race? The whole comment is a strawman argument for a fictional opinion no one has.

Are you saying every horse is trying every time?

[pandy]

Personally, at the A and B tracks, I think most horses are trying. At the low level tracks it's hard to tell because the horses are so slow and the purses so low.


But if you assume that a horse isn't trying, you're assuming that the jockey is actually holding the horse and trying to stiff it, which I do think is a rarity these days, mainly because the horses don't run that often. It's rare that I bet a horse and at no point in the race does the jockey not ask the horse for run.

Naturally, if a horse isn't feeling great that day it may not try that hard. And, some horses that aren't very good never try that hard.

As we all know, many horseplayers like to blame the jockey for their losses, when, in fact, they just aren't that good at picking winners.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

Personally, at the A and B tracks, I think most horses are trying. At the low level tracks it's hard to tell because the horses are so slow and the purses so low.


But if you assume that a horse isn't trying, you're assuming that the jockey is actually holding the horse and trying to stiff it, which I do think is a rarity these days, mainly because the horses don't run that often. It's rare that I bet a horse and at no point in the race does the jockey not ask the horse for run.

Naturally, if a horse isn't feeling great that day it may not try that hard. And, some horses that aren't very good never try that hard.

As we all know, many horseplayers like to blame the jockey for their losses, when, in fact, they just aren't that good at picking winners.

This sort of comment hardly aspires confidence, IMO. Is it okay if, let's say, 4 of the 7 horses in a race are "trying"? Why can't ALL the horses "try" to win the race...and then have stiff fines and long suspensions levied against those who fail to comply with this rule? How else do we repair the game's already tarnished reputation?

[Nitro]

I’ll tell ya, The realization and not being able to come to grips with the fact that ALL entries in every race are NOT there in an attempt to Win it is really a sad observation and commentary!

I could list a half-a-dozen reasons that perhaps the insiders know but the outsiders don’t have clue. Of course later on the old adage “the horse bounced” very often comes into play after the race as a common excuse for not running well.

But don’t take that reality statement from just me.
Perhaps you’ve never read some of Bill Benter’s comments on the subject:

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

How you deal with these facts is one of the many keys to unlocking the answers to this game.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This sort of comment hardly aspires confidence, IMO. Is it okay if, let's say, 4 of the 7 horses in a race are "trying"? Why can't ALL the horses "try" to win the race...and then have stiff fines and long suspensions levied against those who fail to comply with this rule? How else do we repair the game's already tarnished reputation?

What I meant was that if there were 80 horses racing that day, 78 would be trying. I honestly don't think that there are many horses that aren't trying. Horses themselves are bred to race, so inherently, they're trying, so a jockey would actually have to try to hold a horse, which I personally don't think happens much at most tracks. I don't see it. I see the jockeys whipping and slashing.

I know some people think of the old stories of trainers and jockeys trying to set up betting coups, but that's a lot harder than people think. I know one gentleman who paid top jockeys and trainers in NY for info and lost $400,000.

[classhandicapper]

I think we need to define "trying".

There's going into a race knowing your horse is a little short off a layoff or because he missed a work and giving him a prep race.

There's knowing your horses is badly overmatched and instructing the rider to take him back and make one run hoping to pick up a minor piece after the contenders knock each other out or hoping there's a total meltdown.

There's running a horse in a less than ideal spot because there were no ideal races in the book for him.

There's taking a shot on a turf because he's been disappointing on dirt and you are praying he takes to it.

There's giving a first time starter or lightly raced horse an education race trying to teach him to rate, take dirt etc..

Then there's actually stiffing a horse trying to hide its good form.

Personally, I don't think there's much all out stiffing going on. It's so hard to break even on purses that if you take a reasonably sharp horse, stiff him, and waste a perfectly good chance to earn part of the purse (or maybe even win), I'm not so sure you are going to be able recover that potential purse money gambling at a later date. You may get an inflated price and overlay, but that's not going to guarantee a win or that your edge will be large enough to recover blown purse money long term.

[TonyK@HSH]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think we need to define "trying".

Then there's actually stiffing a horse trying to hide its good form.

Personally, I don't think there's much all out stiffing going on. It's so hard to break even on purses that if you take a reasonably sharp horse, stiff him, and waste a perfectly good chance to earn part of the purse (or maybe even win), I'm not so sure you are going to be able recover that potential purse money gambling at a later date. You may get an inflated price and overlay, but that's not going to guarantee a win or that your edge will be large enough to recover blown purse money long term.

Totally agree Class. I believe there is very little stiffing going on today.

[pandy]

It's not easy to try to set up a betting coup. Even if you got the jockey to stiff a horse that's perfectly capable of winning the race, how the heck would you know if the horse is going to be sharp enough to win the next time out? You may have just lost your best chance of getting the top share of the purse.

[jk3521]

I wouldn't call it "stiffing", but sometimes what I see is a horse that maybe has been placed in a race where the trainer might believe his horse doesn't belong, maybe because he sees that the horse is at a pace disadvantage. He might be waiting for a race that comes up where his horse may more likely fit,pace wise. That's what I call a maneuver.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by TonyK@HSH

Totally agree Class. I believe there is very little stiffing going on today.

It isn't the "stiffings" that bother me. It's the "sudden awakenings".

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It isn't the "stiffings" that bother me. It's the "sudden awakenings".

The 'rabbit hole' in this game is deep. Can turn you off to the game. Can make you a bit crazy. Can pose some problems which if solved can occasionally reveal some odd insight or factor that isn't accounted for in the odds.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by jk3521

I wouldn't call it "stiffing", but sometimes what I see is a horse that maybe has been placed in a race where the trainer might believe his horse doesn't belong, maybe because he sees that the horse is at a pace disadvantage. He might be waiting for a race that comes up where his horse may more likely fit,pace wise. That's what I call a maneuver.

It's amazing how many trainers put horses in races where they don't belong, especially low percentage trainers. Maybe the trainer isn't that smart, or can't find a spot for his horse and just wants to get it a race. Sometimes I do wonder if some trainers know anything about pedigree and even stride length. You see the biggest mistakes with maidens, trainers who put horses that are bred to run long in sprints and keep them there, then someone picks up the horse in a maiden claiming race, starts running the horse in route races and the horse turns into a reliable and winning racehorse. Then I see many horses with very nice turf pedigrees get put in a maiden claiming race before the trainer ever tried turf, someone claims the horse, and the horse starts winning races on the turf. Some of these trainers seem pretty clueless.

You also see one-paced horses racing in sprints when they obviously should be routing. There was a trainer in NY years ago, Gasper Moschera, who would claim horses out of sprint races that he thought should be running in route races and he made some of the smartest claimes I've ever seen.