Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Having done more than 40,000 races as a track odds-maker, I have several observations.
First, EVERY player considers himself an expert lines-maker (much as every trainer considers his license a master's degree in horse racing). Many are quick to offer examples of their own accuracy. But when was the last time you heard ANYBODY commend an official odds-maker for crafting a good line??? Never.
That's because it's a thankless job and the work gets noticed only when the maker screws up.
Also, lines crafted by sharp horse players SHOULD be more accurate than official program odds. That's because, unlike professional odds-makers, personalized odds-makers can go as low as they see fit on obvious chalks and strong contenders. The points to do this become available by pegging long-shots at realistically high prices, such as 50-1 75-1..etc. And for reasons I won't belabor here, the track odds-maker does not have that latitude. Consequently, the official predictions on stick-out favorites will NEVER be low enough (on average) to suit handicappers or mirror the closing tote.
As an in-house analyst, I have said for quite some time that bold and accurate predictions of closing odds provide viewers with a service considerably more valuable than selection prattle.
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ok mountain
out of respect for your craft ill be brief
1--don't even try putting me in the category of "every player"
sorry not even close
2-nobody is commending line makers for a great job or work getting noticed
because the mistakes are atrocious to say the least . I can understand
small errors in judgement but huge gaps between logical contenders and
horses being 8-1 that should be realistically 30-1 happen far too often
for u to hold your hat on that comment.
3- sharp players should be more accurate. ok i will give u that one
but should it be that much of a discrepancy. absolutely not .
your job is to predict how the race will unfold and to mirror so to speak what
the toteboard should be doing , so why is this not happening ??
don't horseplayers deserve better. they are treated every day like no one
gives a shi--- and their intelligence is being put on a microscope daily
this is your job your at it all day so why haven't all the linemakers stepped up in this area??
i have been doing these lines for every single contender in every race for the last 10 years to be exact and in the game 30 . and i am privy to the same info that you have every day so what gives ??
latitude of what ??
"I have said for quite some time that bold and accurate predictions of closing odds provide viewers with a service considerably more valuable than selection prattle."
no sorry you have to provide those accurate predictions to the best of your
abilities way before the closing odds even come close to taking shape
as for my selection prattle nonsense well i will leave u to it
don't mean to sound arrogant and judgemental but it was because of these
inaccuracies that i began my journey into making lines.
and what i try and do is provide players with a heads up on these
inaccuracies .
mm
