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04-13-2020, 10:37 AM
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#1
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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New GPS Charts
There is some really good info in these, much better than the Trakus data.
I also learned something new. It is possible to run less than the published distance of the race. Distances are measured three feet from the rail. That is why you will see some horses run less than the actual race distance overall if they stay on the rail on the turns, and it applies to individual segments as well.
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04-13-2020, 11:11 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
There is some really good info in these, much better than the Trakus data.
https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...96115651481600
I also learned something new. It is possible to run less than the published distance of the race. Distances are measured three feet from the rail. That is why you will see some horses run less than the actual race distance overall if they stay on the rail on the turns, and it applies to individual segments as well.
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Something like that may also explain why Trakus data is not consistent from track to track for horses running along the rail. They may not be adjusting "3 feet" consistently from track to track and distance to distance.
The one thing I don't like about the layout is that you have to scroll left/right to see the entire race (unless I'm missing something).
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-13-2020 at 11:17 AM.
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04-13-2020, 11:15 AM
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#3
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,733
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Talked about this in my thread I posted on Friday http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=157326
Seems like a neat idea! Way better in-depth data than Trakus
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Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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04-13-2020, 11:19 AM
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#4
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Something like that may also explain why Trakus data is not consistent from track to track for horses running along the rail. They may not be adjusting "3 feet" consistently from track to track and distance to distance.
The one thing I don't like about the layout is that you have to scroll left/right to see the entire race (unless I'm missing something).
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I'm not a fan of the scrolling either, hopefully it will get better, still really new.
The Trakus thing is even more puzzling IMO. They are always over 3.5 to 4 feet per furlong, but that was assuming horses had to run the full distance of the segment or race. This means the error is even bigger than I had thought.
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04-13-2020, 01:00 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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This begs a few questions. While I believe that a few horses can run less than the posted Trakus data. How wide is a horse? 30 inches? Where on the saddle is the sensor located? How far from the rail does a horse usually run?
12 inches? 14? I would be very surprised if a horse can average running only
a foot from the rail.
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There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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04-13-2020, 04:13 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 466
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Eye on racing has been the rail
When the gate pops is this not considered a constant threat.
Or the Evil eye.
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04-13-2020, 04:27 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maddog42
This begs a few questions. While I believe that a few horses can run less than the posted Trakus data. How wide is a horse? 30 inches? Where on the saddle is the sensor located? How far from the rail does a horse usually run?
12 inches? 14? I would be very surprised if a horse can average running only
a foot from the rail.
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The sensor is typically located on the saddle pad in a pocket located just behind the saddle.
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04-13-2020, 05:05 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,545
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Good stuff.
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04-13-2020, 11:40 PM
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#9
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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I've been working on adding ground loss to the TimeformUS Speed Figures for a few weeks and it was just a coincidence these charts started appearing recently, but I'm finding them accurate and a real time saver. This is an example of how I'm looking to use it, still in the very early stages:
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04-14-2020, 07:42 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Won't adding ground loss in make new figures with ground loss included and those without ground less comparable?
The new ground loss figures will all be bumped up by some amount unless the horse was on the rail the whole way. The old ones will all remain the same.
I have more faith in ground loss figures in theory than in practice because of biases and the way tracks play differently in general, but I think you are doing it correctly by looking at when and how the ground loss occurred.
I spend a ton of time on ground loss watching replays now, but if I was honest with myself I'd have to say it has been a horrible use of my time.
I'm really only interested in the extremes, but it takes lot of time to just get that.
I'm mostly interested in those perfect up the rail closer trips against a fast pace (negative), horses that were used hard early while wide, horses that were hung out wide just as the pace starting picking up late, and extreme ground loss from start to finish.
The rest of it feels more like another area of noise in the figures because the impacts are hard to understand. I see races all the time where horse A beat horse B, B was wider, they meet again, this time A was wider, but A beats him again as the favorite. It's like the ground loss was a total non event even though there was huge net change in roles.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-14-2020, 07:55 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Ground loss is tricky because of the good and bad rail tracks. On a closer's track the best place to be is outside so the inside horses are saving ground but seem to get more tired because the rail is dead.
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04-14-2020, 11:30 AM
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#12
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Won't adding ground loss in make new figures with ground loss included and those without ground less comparable?
The new ground loss figures will all be bumped up by some amount unless the horse was on the rail the whole way. The old ones will all remain the same.
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I don't think they would be bumped up, because the variant is going to adjust to the new method. I'd still be using projections from the old scale. In the example I posted, maybe Tom's d'Etat is and Improbable were both projected to run 125 for example. Former calculations gave Tom a 140 raw figure and Improbable a 141. The variant would be about 15 or 16. Of course this is just using two horses, there would be other races and other horses from this race even.
Now, with ground loss, the raw figures changed to 142 and 148. The variant jumps to about 20.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I have more faith in ground loss figures in theory than in practice because of biases and the way tracks play differently in general, but I think you are doing it correctly by looking at when and how the ground loss occurred.
I spend a ton of time on ground loss watching replays now, but if I was honest with myself I'd have to say it has been a horrible use of my time.
I'm really only interested in the extremes, but it takes lot of time to just get that.
I'm mostly interested in those perfect up the rail closer trips against a fast pace (negative), horses that were used hard early while wide, horses that were hung out wide just as the pace starting picking up late, and extreme ground loss from start to finish.
The rest of it feels more like another area of noise in the figures because the impacts are hard to understand. I see races all the time where horse A beat horse B, B was wider, they meet again, this time A was wider, but A beats him again as the favorite. It's like the ground loss was a total non event even though there was huge net change in roles.
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Like I said, still very early. Could very well be that we only use it in some situations or not at all with a bias. I really don't know. I'm already being very conservative. I'm not using near the amount others do, one path on the turn equal to one length. I started with half of that as the base and adjust up or down a little based on the pace during the segment being measured. The adjustment still brings it nowhere near the 1 to 1 others use.
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04-14-2020, 11:32 AM
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#13
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Ground loss is tricky because of the good and bad rail tracks. On a closer's track the best place to be is outside so the inside horses are saving ground but seem to get more tired because the rail is dead.
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I agree. But how often does that really happen? And when it does, we would always have the option to not use and ground loss adjustment.
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04-14-2020, 05:45 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I don't think they would be bumped up, because the variant is going to adjust to the new method.
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OK.
I get it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-14-2020, 05:51 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Like I said, still very early. Could very well be that we only use it in some situations or not at all with a bias. I really don't know. I'm already being very conservative. I'm not using near the amount others do, one path on the turn equal to one length. I started with half of that as the base and adjust up or down a little based on the pace during the segment being measured. The adjustment still brings it nowhere near the 1 to 1 others use.
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It's interesting that you started with 1/2.
I never had the data to study it, but just from day to day experience it always seemed like 1 length per path tended to overrate the impact. But I still wanted something to get me in the ballpark in the cases where the horse lost a lot of ground. I usually use 1/2 because the math is easy and that's as good a guess as any.
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