TCB Blood files for 2009 Crop

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

After looking at Lady's Secret's produce record, I had her confused with Genuine Risk. Lady's Secret did have a decent produce record and you are right. Most of the offspring were sold off during the Japanese raids of the late 80's.

Jenny had an awful go of it in the shed . God Bless the Firestone's for keeping and giving her a happy home.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Jenny had an awful go of it in the shed . God Bless the Firestone's for keeping and giving her a happy home.

-Without pointing fingers, I wonder how many of the mares that did not reproduce were compromised with steroid use?

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

-Without pointing fingers, I wonder how many of the mares that did not reproduce were compromised with steroid use?

A possibility , we may never know .

[turninforhome10]

My top 3 list from the top 24
Castaway- Derby Winner over La Troienne female line
Fed Biz- Champion Sire over strong Claiborne family
Liaison- Connections all over here. Baffert unfulfilled with Sire from female family of Real Quiet
The above is based on female family
Looking at dosage next.
Baffert has the strongest hand right now for sure.

[turninforhome10]

Looking back 50 years to 1962
Findings
Of the 49 winners of the Derby
16 winners have carried inbreeding in the first 4 removes
Foolish Pleasure- Blenhiem
Seattle Slew- Nasrullah
Spectacular Bid- To Market
Alysheba- Nasrullah
Winning Colors-Nasrullah
Unbridled-Aspidistra
Sea Hero- War Admiral
Real Quiet- Dr Fager Raise A Native
Charismatic- Bold Ruler, Somethingroyal
Barbaro- Nashua
Street Sense- Natalma
Big Brown-Northern Dancer,Damascus, Round Table
Mine That Bird- Mr Prospector Northern Dancer
Super Saver- Buckpasser Raise A Native
Animal Kingdom- Lyphard
First thing to notice is that 4 generation is a new phenomena since 1973. Are the lines becoming clogged?

I will now take the time to introduce another pedigree nerd thing called the Lowe family numbers. When you look at pedigrees on pedigreequery you will notice the family numbers following the bottom lines. Explaination link below
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/FamilyNumbers.htm
While some people dismiss the ideas completely as outdated an limited in value it is still a useful way to classify and organize.
Lets look at 50years of Derby History since 1962

Family Number Wins
1x-La Troeinne 4
Rest of family 1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
6 1
8 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
13 1
14 1
16 2
17 1
20 1
22 1
23 3
A4 1


Thank you ER Bradley for having the foresight to import La Troienne as her line is the leader by far. http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family1x.htm
As far as the Lowe theory it seems as though the results are right there.
Any thoughts?

[turninforhome10]

[QUOTE=turninforhome10]Family Number Wins
1x-La Troeinne 4
Rest of family 1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
6 1
8 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
13 1
14 1
16 2
17 1
20 1
22 1
23 3
A4 1
[QUOTE]
Revised after integrity check
Family Wins
1 12
2 5
3 4
4 5
5 2
6 1
8 1
9 2
10 1
11 1
13 2
14 1
16 3
17 1
20 2
22 1
23 4
A4 2
A1 1
= 49 years thought the math looked bad. Sorry for any confusion.

[turninforhome10]

Just noticed that more than 50% of the winners come from the first 4 families.

[turninforhome10]

Alpha-14
Battle Hardened-4
Castaway-1x
Creative Cause-1
Discreet Dancer-3
El Padrino-13
Empire Way-20
Ever So Lucky-7 Have not won in 50 years (I like the horse but am also a Cubs fan)
Fed Biz-2
Gemologist-10
Hansen-22
I'll Have Another-23
Liaison-9 Triple Reines de Course in tail female
Longview Drive-8
Midnight Transfer-10
Rousing Sermon-7
Sabrecat-1x La Trioenne
Union Rags-13
Mark Valeshki-A1
Z Dager-14

Any wagers on family numbers?

[Bennie]

Took Empire Way in pool#1 at 33-1 and again in pool #2 at 37-1, hoping now the wraps are off and he will continue to develop with added distance. Also grabbed Hansen in pool#1 at 26-1 based on word the blinkers were coming off his next race and hoping he would not be quite as headstrong. Caught him at the right time with his loss to Algorithms and the timing of pool#1 and his race schedule. He would have to do a complete swan dive in his next race to get any where near 26-1. Couldn't pass those odds up. Also, wanted better odds but took a flyer on Alpha in pool#2 at 18-1. Don't like the layoff until the Wood but has 2 races this year and I think enough graded earnings to almost guarantee a spot come the first Saturday in May. Will probably sit out pool#3 unless something dramatic happens. Like the Union Rags race but too short on odds and will probably get close to that for the Derby. Will wait for that one.
Looking forward to your posts on up coming races. Good luck.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Took Empire Way in pool#1 at 33-1 and again in pool #2 at 37-1, hoping now the wraps are off and he will continue to develop with added distance. Also grabbed Hansen in pool#1 at 26-1 based on word the blinkers were coming off his next race and hoping he would not be quite as headstrong. Caught him at the right time with his loss to Algorithms and the timing of pool#1 and his race schedule. He would have to do a complete swan dive in his next race to get any where near 26-1. Couldn't pass those odds up. Also, wanted better odds but took a flyer on Alpha in pool#2 at 18-1. Don't like the layoff until the Wood but has 2 races this year and I think enough graded earnings to almost guarantee a spot come the first Saturday in May. Will probably sit out pool#3 unless something dramatic happens. Like the Union Rags race but too short on odds and will probably get close to that for the Derby. Will wait for that one.
Looking forward to your posts on up coming races. Good luck.

Should make the rest of the races fun as you have some good odds on some nice horses.

[turninforhome10]

On Sat the Best of the West will square off in the last big SA prep en route to the SA Derby and a shot at the Roses. As of the writing of this there are 10 entrants form the 139 early bird entered on DEC 22 2011 for the SA Derby series.. This race promises to answer a lot of questions but the questions it presents are making for one tough race to handicap. Horses in all phases of form and experience levels promise to make this a good betting race for those who get it right. I just have to think that someone from this race will be 10-1 or less on the first Saturday in May. Very deep field but we will try to get to the bottom of a few.
First thing I notice is Bejarano sticks with Bodemeister. Watch his maiden win and it make sense. In hand the whole way and drew off. Uncertain of the quality of field but was an impressive race. Was blowing pretty hard in the winners circle and started with blinks but if he moves forward he is gonna be a force to be reckoned with. Talk about a female line. Nothing but the best Storm Cat, AP Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky II back to Windfields Habitat. Very stout dosage see below. Family number 1 4 occurrences of Somethingroyal and highest quality rating of pedigrees examined this year. Is he the real deal, nothing lacking in pedigree.
Curious about Blingo. Sherrieffs has the know how to get one to the Derby as evidenced by Giacomo and his 2yo races showed a late running closer type. So what's up with the works. Horse is training like a monster at Hollywood and a 6 fur bullet will get anyone's attention. What they have planned for Sat will be interesting. Horse is bred to run all day and the works show he has some speed. Wildcard for the SA Derby.
Musical jockeys with the Midnight Transfer, Tiz Point, Liason, and Empire Way, which leads me to Creative Cause. Rosario stays after running 3rd in a very speedy San Vincente. Was no reason to push him that day and two turns is his MO. Graded earnings no problem so just needs an honest effort to move forward to SA Derby. Rosario has to be hungry for roses and Harrington has tightened the screws with the 46 blowout signaling readiness.
Wish I had more time to break this down but work calls

I like
Creative Cause
Bodemeister
Blingo running late.
We seperate the men from the boys in this one.

[turninforhome10]

See below

[turninforhome10]

As we get closer to the Run for the Roses thought a little insight from my hero might inspire some good decision making
Enjoy
http://colinsghost.org/wp-content/up...Chapter_04.pdf

[turninforhome10]

Oaklawn has been a hotbed for good 3yo's since Smarty Jones swept the series and went on to Derby glory. The Rebel Stakes today hope to be a springboard to the Ark Derby and a chance to wear the roses. Horses that have won the Rebel and went on to classic glory include Sunnys Halo- Derby, Temperance Hill, Victory Gallup-Belmont Stakes, Pine Bluff, Lookin at Lucky- Preakness
Could todays rendition prove to be a stepping stone to classic greatness
Let's break it down
My contenders

Race Summary
95 Secret Circle- Same WOP as Southwest- Go to the front and improve your position. Will he get 11/16 with the same force as mile is question "Short stretch of the mile run" Moving forward here puts him 5/2 or less for ARK Derby. Pedigree is complete outcross for 5 gens and dosage is perfect for speed that can last. Very deep historical female line notice the deep Fair Play/Rock Sand cross indicating Belmont breeding.
102 Atigun- Long shot was has been handled kindly by Mcpeek. Owns nice runs at CD from last year. Last out was nice and should serve as good tightner. Needs a hot pace but that seems to be what looks evident. Female lines go back to Secretariat's close relative Speedwell and I have read somewhere that the large heart genes come from Impeatrice(Need more info) . Needs to jump up big but IMHO is gonna breakout today.
99 Jake Mo- Hard trying horse that is IMHO an underlay at 20-1. Done nothing wrong and Berry is good pilot Working class pedigree is same female line as Secret Circle and doubles Buckpasser on bottom. Curious as to how he came to be Dark bay or brown with a grey dad and Ch\gr carrying mom?
89 Najjaar - Longshot is very stoutly bred and last was a Borel special. I am not certain he looks for the big one here but certainly could go on the radar with a big effort here for stout connections.

/
Happy cappin.

[Blenheim]

Congratulations on pickin' the first two in the San Felipe and nice winner in the Rebel today, good cappin'! And thanks for postin' those numbers I had mixed up over there, I'm needin' some work on that. Anyways, I've been havin' the time of my life at the track the past couple of weeks . . .
~
I was readin' the latest Bloodhorse magazine and thought I might ask for your thoughts on their article titled: A.P. Indy Line Enjoys Rewarding Day. A few notes from that article:

March 3 was a big day for pensioned Lane's End Farm Stallion A.P. Indy as two of his male-line descendants won grade I stakes and two others captured grade II events. Making the achievement even more noteworthy was that three of the winners were produced from Storm Cat-line mares . . . The combination of A.P. Indy and Storm Cat in a pedigree results in a pedigree resulting in an inbreeding to Triple Crown winner Secretariat, who is the broodmare sire of both . . . Eden's Moon, who is by A.P. Indy's son Malibu Moon, won the March 3 Las Virgenes Stakes (g.I) . . . Hansen, by A.P. Indy's grandson Tapit (by Pulpit) won the Gotham Stakes (g. II) . . . It's Tricky, an A.P. Indy granddaughter, was a grade II winner on the Gotham under card . . . A.P. Indy's top male-line stakes winner March 3 doesn't have Storm Cat in his pedigree, but that hardly seemed to matter. Ron the Greek, by A.P. Indy's son Full Mandate out of the Fortunate Prospect mare Flambe', won the $ 750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (g. I) .
~
G II Risen Star winner El Padrino has the same blood lines and when you get the chance, take a look at the pedigree of the g. II Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective! . No doubt and as you have written . . . pedigree matters and pedigree analysis along this Derby Trail has proven be an interesting and profitable handicapping tool. I'd like to read more about it.

What are your thoughts, if any, on the blood line combination mentioned in the article above?

Nothin' like this Derby Trail . . .