Another Brisnet Pace Ratings Question

[Running Amok]

Can someone explain to me why there isn't an E1 pace rating for 5 furlong races?

Because it's my understanding that Brisnet E2 rating is based on how fast a horse ran from the start to the 2nd call, which is 4-furlongs in sprints.

And so if the Brisnet LP rating measures how fast a horse ran from the 2nd call to the finish, then clearly LP represents different distances in sprint races depending on the distance of the race.

Which brings me back to my original question. Why is E1 not shown in 5-furlong races?

E1 measures start to 1st call, which is 2 furlongs in sprints.

In 5-furlong races the 2-furlong fraction is shown, along with the horses position and beaten lengths at the 1st call. So an E1 pace rating can certainly be calculated the same way it's calculated in all other sprint races.

So why is it not calculated and shown?

2 furlongs is 40% of a 5 furlong race. It's more than a third of the race. But no rating?

And here's the real head-scratcher... Why has no one else ever brought this up?

If you were going to eliminate one of the pace ratings, wouldn't it make more sense to eliminate LP instead of E1 in 5 furlong races?

Because unless I'm missing something LP pace rating measures just 1 furlong, from e2 (4-furlong mark) ti the finish. And 1 furlong is only 20% of 5 furlong race.

But what the heck, let's eliminate the rating that represents 40% of the race instead.

Yeah, that makes sense

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

Can someone explain to me why there isn't an E1 pace rating for 5 furlong races?

Because it's my understanding that Brisnet E2 rating is based on how fast a horse ran from the start to the 2nd call, which is 4-furlongs in sprints.

And so if the Brisnet LP rating measures how fast a horse ran from the 2nd call to the finish, then clearly LP represents different distances in sprint races depending on the distance of the race.

Which brings me back to my original question. Why is E1 not shown in 5-furlong races?

E1 measures start to 1st call, which is 2 furlongs in sprints.

In 5-furlong races the 2-furlong fraction is shown, along with the horses position and beaten lengths at the 1st call. So an E1 pace rating can certainly be calculated the same way it's calculated in all other sprint races.

So why is it not calculated and shown?

2 furlongs is 40% of a 5 furlong race. It's more than a third of the race. But no rating?

And here's the real head-scratcher... Why has no one else ever brought this up?

If you were going to eliminate one of the pace ratings, wouldn't it make more sense to eliminate LP instead of E1 in 5 furlong races?

Because unless I'm missing something LP pace rating measures just 1 furlong, from e2 (4-furlong mark) ti the finish. And 1 furlong is only 20% of 5 furlong race.

But what the heck, let's eliminate the rating that represents 40% of the race instead.

Yeah, that makes sense

I don't know what BRIS includes or doesn't include as far as pace figures go but keep in mind points of call (beaten lengths) vary by distance and 5f is bit unique in that the first one is at 1.5 f and the second is at 3f. Second to last one is always 1f from the finish regardless of distance so in a 5f race the second to last one then actually corresponds with your half mile time and for the quarter mile time lengths back you will have to estimate it as a percentage between the first two which let's go with 2/3rds of the 1.5f point and 1/3rd of the 3f to give us 2f lengths. (forgive me if I'm off on that, just woke up) Lengths are all estimates anyway except for the finish, so here we're estimating an estimate. At 5f they should be giving you the first quarter pace figure based upon the blended estimated lengths back at the quarter mile time. Since none of us have the 'official' lengths back at the first quarter in 5f races that may explain if or why something might be missing in this case but I'd have to defer to others on that.

[Running Amok]

I did not know the first call in a 5-furlong race was at 3/16 and 2nd call is at 3/8.

I should have researched points of call in a 5-furlong race before I posted this thread. I just assumed the 1st call was at the 1/4 mile mark. Because the graphic I posted at the bottom of my original post states E1 is:

"How fast a horse ran from the start to 1st call, which 2-furlongs in sprints and 4-furlongs in route races."

But now that I looked into it further, you are correct. What's strange to me is that races at 4 1/2 furlongs, an even shorter race, the first call is indeed at the quarter mile mark.

As a matter of fact, 5-furlongs is the ONLY distance in sprint races that makes the 1st call at the 3/16 mark. And I do not understand why they do it that way. Why not be consistent and make the 1st call the same in all sprint races? Why change it just at 5 furlongs?

Does anyone know why the 1st call is at the 3/16 mark in a 5 furlong race?

Now that I've researched this further I see you also are correct about the 2nd call being at the 3/8 mark. This is true for 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races. And again, I don't understand why it's done this way. Handicapping a horse racing is difficult enough without these inconsistencies.

Thanks @MJC922 for weighing in. 182 views and you were the only one who replied. I guess people must have thought I'm an idiot for not knowing about the 1st call in 5 furlong races. Or maybe they just figured if I'm that ignorant there isn't no point in helping. Either way, thanks for correcting my misunderstanding. Much appreciated.

.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

I did not know the first call in a 5-furlong race was at 3/16 and 2nd call is at 3/8.

I should have researched points of call in a 5-furlong race before I posted this thread. I just assumed the 1st call was at the 1/4 mile mark. Because the graphic I posted at the bottom of my original post states E1 is:

"How fast a horse ran from the start to 1st call, which 2-furlongs in sprints and 4-furlongs in route races."

But now that I looked into it further, you are correct. What's strange to me is that races at 4 1/2 furlongs, an even shorter race, the first call is indeed at the quarter mile mark.

As a matter of fact, 5-furlongs is the ONLY distance in sprint races that makes the 1st call at the 3/16 mark. And I do not understand why they do it that way. Why not be consistent and make the 1st call the same in all sprint races? Why change it just at 5 furlongs?

Does anyone know why the 1st call is at the 3/16 mark in a 5 furlong race?

Now that I've researched this further I see you also are correct about the 2nd call being at the 3/8 mark. This is true for 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races. And again, I don't understand why it's done this way. Handicapping a horse racing is difficult enough without these inconsistencies.

Thanks @MJC922 for weighing in. 182 views and you were the only one who replied. I guess people must have thought I'm an idiot for not knowing about the 1st call in 5 furlong races. Or maybe they just figured if I'm that ignorant there isn't no point in helping. Either way, thanks for correcting my misunderstanding. Much appreciated.

.

No worries on that, most people won't know those details, it's obscure stuff. Evidence of a misspent youth I guess. 5.5 furlongs is the other one to take note of, as we don't have the half mile lengths there, you'll have to use a similar blended approach, this time with the 3/8ths and 9/16ths, 2/3rds weight going to the 9/16ths, right? As for why they do it, maybe Vic can weigh in definitively since I think he said he was a chart caller at one point. I'm going to guess it's just a matter of the pole not being where you need it at those distances. The beam is there but it's six seconds away from the pole, probably just too tough to not use the pole where it is when you're eyeballing it. Another obscure one is the break from the gate in routes is not shown in PPs, they show the first quarter mile position with no lengths in the PPs, the result chart will show the lengths at the quarter. Nothing will show the break position except in sprints so it would be off to the replays to see if someone got left and rushed up early in a route.

[vegasone]

But now that I looked into it further, you are correct. What's strange to me is that races at 4 1/2 furlongs, an even shorter race, the first call is indeed at the quarter mile mark.





May have to do with where they start and where the timers are.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

I did not know the first call in a 5-furlong race was at 3/16 and 2nd call is at 3/8.

I should have researched points of call in a 5-furlong race before I posted this thread. I just assumed the 1st call was at the 1/4 mile mark. Because the graphic I posted at the bottom of my original post states E1 is:

"How fast a horse ran from the start to 1st call, which 2-furlongs in sprints and 4-furlongs in route races."

But now that I looked into it further, you are correct. What's strange to me is that races at 4 1/2 furlongs, an even shorter race, the first call is indeed at the quarter mile mark.

As a matter of fact, 5-furlongs is the ONLY distance in sprint races that makes the 1st call at the 3/16 mark. And I do not understand why they do it that way. Why not be consistent and make the 1st call the same in all sprint races? Why change it just at 5 furlongs?

Does anyone know why the 1st call is at the 3/16 mark in a 5 furlong race?

Now that I've researched this further I see you also are correct about the 2nd call being at the 3/8 mark. This is true for 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races. And again, I don't understand why it's done this way. Handicapping a horse racing is difficult enough without these inconsistencies.

Thanks @MJC922 for weighing in. 182 views and you were the only one who replied. I guess people must have thought I'm an idiot for not knowing about the 1st call in 5 furlong races. Or maybe they just figured if I'm that ignorant there isn't no point in helping. Either way, thanks for correcting my misunderstanding. Much appreciated.

.

You are definitely NOT an idiot. That was a damn good question. I have way of fudging that comes pretty close. I use the 1st call time and fudge up or down off the 2nd call number.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by maddog42

You are definitely NOT an idiot. That was a damn good question. I have way of fudging that comes pretty close. I use the 1st call time and fudge up or down off the 2nd call number.

In the 3rd race at CD going off about now the 11 ran a 21.1 and was a head off the pace, That is the fastest first fraction in the race by anybody I think since I looked at the race for about 1 minute. adjust that 2nd call number up.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by maddog42

In the 3rd race at CD going off about now the 11 ran a 21.1 and was a head off the pace, That is the fastest first fraction in the race by anybody I think since I looked at the race for about 1 minute. adjust that 2nd call number up.

I was wrong about that 3rd race since it ran about an hour ago, but you can probably beat my gorilla math easily. I would have rated him behind the 5 in that race since I usually wont fudge more than a few points. That 16 to 1 on the 5 was a gift. He didn't win but thats how I would have bet.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by vegasone

But now that I looked into it further, you are correct. What's strange to me is that races at 4 1/2 furlongs, an even shorter race, the first call is indeed at the quarter mile mark.

May have to do with where they start and where the timers are.

Actually, it is because of the distance to the finish.

And, while considering that topic...

Ever wonder why closers typically fare better at 7fur compared to 6?

3f from the EP call instead of 2f.
Guess where that puts the 2nd call?

Same with 9f vs 8f.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I don't know what BRIS includes or doesn't include as far as pace figures go but keep in mind points of call (beaten lengths) vary by distance and 5f is bit unique in that the first one is at 1.5 f and the second is at 3f. Second to last one is always 1f from the finish regardless of distance so in a 5f race the second to last one then actually corresponds with your half mile time and for the quarter mile time lengths back you will have to estimate it as a percentage between the first two which let's go with 2/3rds of the 1.5f point and 1/3rd of the 3f to give us 2f lengths. (forgive me if I'm off on that, just woke up) Lengths are all estimates anyway except for the finish, so here we're estimating an estimate. At 5f they should be giving you the first quarter pace figure based upon the blended estimated lengths back at the quarter mile time. Since none of us have the 'official' lengths back at the first quarter in 5f races that may explain if or why something might be missing in this case but I'd have to defer to others on that.

basically THIS is what they are doing.

it says e2, but it's really e1, and they seem to be extrapolating it close to how mjc922 is saying.

they give free pps for september 18 at asd, so let's look at a couple horses coming out of the same race:

july 25 5th asd

(bris pace)... 1c.....2c...est 1/4 call.
lady sunset....... (91)..........2.5....4.5.....3.0
towards the light (86)..........5.5....7.0.....5.5
ohtani .......... ....(82).........7.5.....8.0....7.5

so using the estimated quarter call towards the light is 2.5 lengths behind lady sunset which equals 5 bris points (91-86) with ohtani being another 2 lengths (4 bris points) back (86-82).

later in the card:


shootin money..(99)..........0.0.....0.0.....0.0
ask for bode.....(98)..........0.5.....neck....0.5
will knows........(89)..........4.25...5.75....5.0


hope this helps, please correct me if wrong.

[RonTiller]

I can't speak to what BRIS or anybody else does with 5F races.

The 1/4 mile times are collected by Equibase for 5F races, with the minor exception of some small fair tracks. The points of call are 3/16 and 3/8 (or 6/16). The 1/4 times for the horses can be estimated (albeit imperfectly) by interpolating beaten lengths between 3/16 and 6/16 to estimate the 1/4 beaten lengths (4/16).

Imperfect data, imperfect pace rating (perfect data, imperfect pace rating too). As with most things in life, imperfect gets you a long ways (except for explosive ordinance disposal).

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Running Amok]

Thanks guys, really helpful.

But there's one thing I'm still uncertain about and I'd like to hear your input on this.

I know not everyone uses Bris Pace ratings so I copied the info below to bring you up to speed and then described my ambiguity.

According to Brisnet:

Brisnet Pace Ratings measure how fast a horse ran up to a specific point-of-call in a race. The higher the number, the faster the horse ran.

2f Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the quarter-mile call. (2f)

4f Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the half-mile call. (4f)

6f Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the three-quarter mile call. (6f)

E1 Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the 1st call (2f Pace in sprints, 4f Pace in most routes).

E2 Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the 2nd call (4f Pace in sprints, 6f Pace in most routes).

Late Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call (pre-stretch call) to the finish.

So, in a 5 1/2 furlong race the fractional times are taken at the 1/4, 1/2, 5/8 and the finish. However, the 1st and 2nd points of call are at the 1/4 and 3/8 mark, respectively. Another example where points of call don't match up with the fractional times, but I regress.

If E1 Pace Rating is measuring from the start to the 2f (which is the first fraction in a 5 1/2f race) then would it be correct to assume that E2 Pace Rating is measuring from the start to the 4f like it states above, even though the 2nd call is at the 3/8 mark?

In other words, just because the 2nd point of call and the fractional time don't match up a in a 5 1/2 furlong race, wouldn't E2 still be representing how fast the horse ran from the start to the 4f mark?

And if E2 represents the start to the 4f mark (like Brisnet states above) then the Late Pace Rating would represent from 4f to the finish, which would be 1.5 furlongs in a 5 1/2f race. Is that correct?

[Speed Figure]

Points of Call Chart!

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Points of Call Chart!

Thanks for posting the Points of Call Chart.

The title of this thread is "Another Brisnet Pace Ratings Question" So, I just want to reiterate that I am specifically asking about Brisnet's Pace Ratings here.

I was first asking about why Brisnet omits E1 in 5-furlong races. I got my answer and was informed about the points of call being different in 5-furlong races.

OK, now that that's settled I have a new question specifically Brisnet's E2 Pace Rating in 5 1/2 f races.

Note in the chart that Speed Figure posted that the 2nd point of call is at the 3/8 mark in a 5 1/2 f race.

OK, now look at the chart I posted in my original post of this thread. For E2 it states: "How fast a horse ran from the start to 2nd call, which 4-furlongs in sprints and 6-furlongs in route races."

That statement is unclear to me as to what E2 is measuring in 5 1/2 f races. Why? Because it states in sprint races E2 is measured from the start to 2nd call but then it states which is 4-furlongs in sprints.

So my question is because the 2nd point of call and the 4-furlong fractional time are different in a 5 1/2 furlong race, is the Brisnet E2 rating representing how fast the horse ran from the start to the 4f mark, or the 3/8 mark? Which is it?

[Running Amok]

I just wanted to add where the ambiguity stems from over which mark is being used for Brisnet's E2 Pace Ratings in 5 1/2 f races,

In post # 12 above, I posted the explanation of their Pace Ratings directly from the Brisnet Handicappers Library.

Under the "What Do The Brisnet Pace Ratings Measure" section it shows their Pace rating are measured at 2f, 4f and 6f.

"4f Pace Rating – rates how fast the horse ran from the start to the half-mile call. (4f)"

This suggests that despite 3/8 being the 2nd call in a 5 1/2 f race, Brisnet's E2 Pace Rating is actually representing how fast a horse ran from the start to the 4f mark. Not the 3/8 mark.

Does anyone know for sure?