easiest top 6 i've ever had before KD draw

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

Meaningless to make a line before the draw.

I know for you it might be and that is the reason why I had a disclaimer saying take my fair odds with a grain of salt aka don’t fully rely on these now.

Plus it’s just for fun and I do suck at making morning lines so what’s not to love?

[boys at tosconova]

as each year passes this forum gets less and less action. the drop-off from even several years ago is stark. nothing but crickets.

horse racing is all about the KD for the masses. this is the "horse racing time" of the year..... but when the target age of most horseplayers is 50+ seems like it's going to get worse. no fanfare at all.

harness racing is an abomination but I did't think the thoroughbreds would fall off a cliff as well.

[capitalman]

I can't imagine a top 6 without Angel of Empire.

[$w1fT]

I wouldn't bet Forte at 2-1 with your money.

[Raider]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

as each year passes this forum gets less and less action. the drop-off from even several years ago is stark. nothing but crickets.

horse racing is all about the KD for the masses. this is the "horse racing time" of the year..... but when the target age of most horseplayers is 50+ seems like it's going to get worse. no fanfare at all.

harness racing is an abomination but I did't think the thoroughbreds would fall off a cliff as well.

Horse racing and craps are both "old man games", something I read years ago. I could never make up my mind, is it because it takes that long to get good at them, or we have the money to spend on them?

I think Ca Chrome brought a lot of people into horse racing. Then AP winning the first TC in 40 years. Lets hope that who every wins the derby, wins the preakness as well.

[Hoops McCann]

i hope Derma Sotogake gets a decent post. he looks legit against this group. of course i would like him more if he had a prep race in the states and a top American based jockey on his back.

[$w1fT]

Forte
Mage

Practical Move
Skinner (had the worst trip of the 3 in the SA Derby, but at bottom of my list)
Mandarin Hero (if he gets in)

Angel of Empire

Kingsbarns (not my cup of tea, but CAN win)

Two Phils

Tapit Trice

The other two Japanese horses with DS on top

So those are the 10-12 horses I think can win.

The horses from the Wood are complete tosses. Verifying had a no excuse trip and couldn't get it done...toss for me. Don't think any of the other horses are good enough (maybe Raise Cain can hit the board)

~~~

Forte, Practical Move and Tapit Trice will probably be the top 3 betting choices. I don't think Forte has progressed enough as a 3yo to bet at a short price in the Derby. I like PM but has had two really nice rail trips and in a 20 horse field that could be a tough ask. TT showed me more in the Bluegrass but is also pace dependent.

That would leave me with Mage, DS, MH, 2P, AoE as the main horses I'd zero in on & then with the other horses I mentioned not as my top choices.

[burnsy]

The way racing is now and the way these guys ride . The pace of this race means EVERYTHING! Last year someone on here told me the pace didn’t matter . Face it , some old guys never get good at this and forget about it taking a long time to get good . Someone like that could have “forever” and still stink. In reference to the no “fanfare “ post that I sort of think is true. Last year there was finally a torrid pace. Many years now that’s just not the case . But you definitely have to use multiple horses or get a lucky educated guess as to the early going . Pletcher seems to have different angles and running styles covering a variety of pace scenarios. But the “meltdown “ is almost always where the bombs come from these days.

There was a period when I was younger, before the point system where you had a hot pace almost every year . People would enter bonafide sprinters ……didn’t matter…… Derby fever. The results used to be all over the board and the favorite many years was a toss. These days if a horse gets out there “soft” it’s been a done deal . Either on the front end or stalking . The way it went last year is an anomaly now . But I gotta wait and look for the desperate types. Cause that’s when you get a torrid half . If they let Kingbarns jig jog around the course like he did at FG …. Look out

[MJC922]

My thought on Forte is to me he's a presser who had to sort things out from the rear half last time. I don't think he wins if he tries that in the Derby but if he presses and it's an avg pace then he should be more effective. I don't think that's his 'A' race at all, to me it was a case of being caught out of his ideal position and getting it done on class.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by MJC922

My thought on Forte is to me he's a presser who had to sort things out from the rear half last time. I don't think he wins if he tries that in the Derby but if he presses and it's an avg pace then he should be more effective. I don't think that's his 'A' race at all, to me it was a case of being caught out of his ideal position and getting it done on class.

he and tt just keep coming. somebody said they're pace dependent but that hasn't been the case. nobody out closes these horses and they run everyone down down with any kind of trip. they both seem to want more distance to boot.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The way racing is now and the way these guys ride . The pace of this race means EVERYTHING! Last year someone on here told me the pace didn’t matter . Face it , some old guys never get good at this and forget about it taking a long time to get good . Someone like that could have “forever” and still stink. In reference to the no “fanfare “ post that I sort of think is true. Last year there was finally a torrid pace. Many years now that’s just not the case . But you definitely have to use multiple horses or get a lucky educated guess as to the early going . Pletcher seems to have different angles and running styles covering a variety of pace scenarios. But the “meltdown “ is almost always where the bombs come from these days.

There was a period when I was younger, before the point system where you had a hot pace almost every year . People would enter bonafide sprinters ……didn’t matter…… Derby fever. The results used to be all over the board and the favorite many years was a toss. These days if a horse gets out there “soft” it’s been a done deal . Either on the front end or stalking . The way it went last year is an anomaly now . But I gotta wait and look for the desperate types. Cause that’s when you get a torrid half . If they let Kingbarns jig jog around the course like he did at FG …. Look out

kings barn and verifying should be in the lead group at the top of the stretch

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

I'm putting verifying on the top line of must use as well.

after that there's hope but there's still questions with Phil, barn and mange.

it's not that either could step up, it's just cloudy with them. Phil will get bet heavily. I just feel like I'm going to piss away money with him. his dirt races don't really put him in the 1/2 mix and it's way too easy to be enamored with the ruby.

barn has done everything right. but the horse just seems 2nd fiddle and he'll also be penalized for not going faster. seems like to many he'll be a no respect horse. seems unwise to penalize even though many will

as for mange...no foundation whatsoever. seems optimistic, but he is improving and good also be in good position with verifying and barn up close.

i'm not married to Phil, barn, and mange but I could see why others would like practical, derma and angel.

I'm just not one of them, angel has outrun his oods every race it seems. reincarnate and that other figure horse didn't even show up in his race.

derma, lol. this horse is gonna get more fanfare than that mutabbajj horse and will be bet off the board. having that middle of the pack uae horse almost beat practical and weighing it vs this one seems like fools gold imo. ever since the uae horse came over to he derby no horse has even hit the board.

which leads me to practical....can't believe how down I am on this horse and the cal horses. (although I still will follow geaux rocket) delving deeper practical had only run in abbreviated fields and seemed to face subpar competition. although he won the sa derby you can't even separate this horse from 2nd and 3rd place finishers that aren't even in the derby. also every cali horse that left the state didn't bring their form with them

it just seems far more likely the cali horse aren't that good. I'm not ready to elevate vision or skinner being on par with the good KD horses. but you sure as hell would seem stupid if you done;t use them if you only use practical. ez tosses imo. maybe include them for 3rd for only a nominal amount more playing triples. I just don't see a 1st/2nd place finish at all

[f2tornado]

I've been punching some numbers into a modified Stanley Caris checklist. Just missing the BSF+Track Variant item (an item that Country House fit). The top four, if including the Louisiana Derby:

Forte
Mage
Disarm (no gate yet)
Tapit Trice

There's a number clustered together thereafter. It quite common for one of the Buckpasser-x horses to hit the exacta. Those include (but note I have not looked over a few of the lower points horses yet):

Forte
Tapit Trice
Kingsbarns
Mage

Then it's a matter of jockey. Irad is locked on Forte, I'm confident Saez is going to take Tapit, the early word is JV might gets Kingsbarns since Pratt jumped to Angel. Mage? JC?

I'd bet Saez on a donkey and Forte checks all boxes. Both horses manage to work out a trip while many others needed dream trips to get up. I'll use those two first and have the others, at a minimum, underneath in gimmicks. I'm not too concerned about post position unless it's the rail or 14 or 15 hole where there's more banging than Bristol in recent years.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I've been punching some numbers into a modified Stanley Caris checklist. Just missing the BSF+Track Variant item (an item that Country House fit). The top four, if including the Louisiana Derby:

Forte
Mage
Disarm (no gate yet)
Tapit Trice

There's a number clustered together thereafter. It quite common for one of the Buckpasser-x horses to hit the exacta. Those include (but note I have not looked over a few of the lower points horses yet):

Forte
Tapit Trice
Kingsbarns
Mage

Then it's a matter of jockey. Irad is locked on Forte, I'm confident Saez is going to take Tapit, the early word is JV might gets Kingsbarns since Pratt jumped to Angel. Mage? JC?

I'd bet Saez on a donkey and Forte checks all boxes. Both horses manage to work out a trip while many others needed dream trips to get up. I'll use those two first and have the others, at a minimum, underneath in gimmicks. I'm not too concerned about post position unless it's the rail or 14 or 15 hole where there's more banging than Bristol in recent years.

I'm upset that Pratt isn't picking kings barn. he's such a high value addition.

[boys at tosconova]

can't wait until the stories and backstories start coming in on Phil and derma.

I'm sure there will be some articles that will make it seem like you shouldn't leave either out.

these 2 should be the buzz or wise guy horses.

really wonder home much more of a favorite forte will be over tt. I really like tt in the derby