I'm picking winning horses but not betting them right-help please

[AceInTheHole]

Ive really focused my game on what i am good at and thats turf races with fillies and mares. I'm selective and have been successful sticking to this type of race to bet and pick the winner of mostly. I make the biggest mistakes in my betting not my handicapping. Im a Win and trying to be an exact better but whats killing me lately is I'm picking the winner and the place horse but dont have them bet right in the exacta. Today in the 7th race at Aqueduct I have on the bottom of my exact with all on top and wins the race. I think it paid 300 something with the as the place horse. My single exact ticket had the on top of the I've tried to get away for just boxing exactas but I've got to polish up my win and exacta betting methods. Once again I'm picking, in these turf races with fillies and mares , the 1-3 horses pretty good but with a modest bankroll, say around 1000 I think I'm betting too conservatively. In short I need help on this aspect of my game cause I see these races clearly at times and was all over Regalo mio last week at Gulfstream but not in enough. I hit the late pick 4 that day also. Please help me become a better win and exacta better with a focus on when your right your bet maximizes that. Sorry for the long post but should have been on that 7th race exacta today and it really showed me a weakness in my game.

[thaskalos]

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here.

You say that you are primarily a win-bettor who is trying to become a better exacta player. Who was your win selection in the 7th at Aqueduct today...the 5, or the 2?

Your exacta bet must reflect your opinion on the race. If you played the 5-horse in the second slot with everything on top, and then added a 2-5 exacta to the mix...then your play contradicts your opinion that the 5 was the best horse in the race...unless you had a healthy bet on the 5 to win -- and you were using the exacta as a hedging manouver.

If you are using your exactas strictly as "insurance" in case your win-bet finishes second...then you can't expect to cash both your win-bet and your exacta bet in the same race.

[AceInTheHole]

My opinion was that the would come in second. I was not sure of the winning horse so hit the all on top button and went with my best guess to the winner as the . My thought process was if the comes in second I'm a winner and if the wins I hit the exacta twice. I had no win bet in this race. This is what I need help with being a better win and exacta better. I had the right horses in this race but did to bet them correctly I think. Reading Mitchell's Commen Sense Betting book now.

[Robert Goren]

If thought the was going to run second, bet it to place or wheel it in the two hole in the exacta. Back your strong opinion and don't dilute them with your weak ones.

[pondman]

I don't understand. How can you key a horse for second but not make it a contender for 1st? I have an understanding for picking winners. I know what chances a horse has for finishing in 1st. When it's chances are high enough and the odds are high enough I bet. I do not have the ability to give a probably of a horse finishing in the 2nd position. I can say the horse has <> chance of at least finishing in the money, or at least finishing second. And could stack horses horizontally if I wanted to play that way, but I don't.

You are only given a few bets, you have to try and beat the game with what is given. It's a game that's not going to be beat unless you can load up the 1st position and get it right enough of the time.

[Stillriledup]

I used to know a guy who would just pick one cold exacta and bet on it. He picked a top horse and picked a 2nd horse and punched it ICE COLD, he either won or he didnt. That guy never had a problem with 'bad betting' because he would have 100% of his investment on his top pick in the first slot and 100% of his investment on his 2nd pick to finish 2nd.

He kept it as simple as you could get.

[vegasone]

You really didn't pick a winner. You actually picked a loser in the race and think because the 5won that you picked a winner. Unless you know for sure that one of your contenders can win and box or do something to hedge your bet then not much can be said. Only by keeping records can you know if your second choice comes in often enough to put him on top or bet to win.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by AceInTheHole

Today in the 7th race at Aqueduct I have on the bottom of my exact with all on top and wins the race.

I'm mystified by people who claim they "see" a horse finishing in a given position other than win. Concentrate, please, on handicapping the winner, then back him to win and take any other insurance you see fit (exacta back-wheel, place, show, tri, super, etc.).

In the example you gave, if I thought I could "forecast" the running second, I would back-wheel him, BUT ALSO BET HIM TO WIN TO AT LEAST TO INSURE A PROFIT ON THE RACE. Better still, JUST BET HIM TO PLACE!

[FiveWide]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I'm mystified by people who claim they "see" a horse finishing in a given position other than win. Concentrate, please, on handicapping the winner, then back him to win and take any other insurance you see fit (exacta back-wheel, place, show, tri, super, etc.).

In the example you gave, if I thought I could "forecast" the running second, I would back-wheel him, BUT ALSO BET HIM TO WIN TO AT LEAST TO INSURE A PROFIT ON THE RACE. Better still, JUST BET HIM TO PLACE!

Agree 100% with this! Worry about the winner first.

-Five

[Pensacola Pete]

You're not playing to your strengths. If your forte is picking winners, then play the horses to win.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by AceInTheHole

My opinion was that the would come in second. I was not sure of the winning horse so hit the all on top button and went with my best guess to the winner as the . My thought process was if the comes in second I'm a winner and if the wins I hit the exacta twice. I had no win bet in this race. This is what I need help with being a better win and exacta better. I had the right horses in this race but did to bet them correctly I think. Reading Mitchell's Commen Sense Betting book now.

A big part of success at this game is being able to get paid when you are correct. In this instance you clearly liked the 2 and 5. I would have made win-place wagers on the 2 & 5. Then, exacta key-boxes on 2+ logical contenders and 5 + logical contenders and double down on 2-5 boxes. If I wanted to get really aggressive trifecta 25/25/logical contenders.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by pondman

I don't understand. How can you key a horse for second but not make it a contender for 1st?

Very easily. How often do you see two strong contenders in a race battle for much of the race and one wins, and the other tails off completely, and another horse who was never in contention to win, gets up for second? I love taking the 15-1 or 20-1 types in the underneath slot in the exacta.

While the win odds are generally a pretty good reflection of each horse's chances of winning, often times they can be misleading for those chances of running 2nd. Many bettors box their plays, and that can mean certain combinations are underlaid: most often longshots in the win slot, or favorites in the underneath slot.

Races that figure to be tilted toward a slowish pace, or a very fast pace are good candidates to play longshots in the underneath slots.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I love taking the 15-1 or 20-1 types in the underneath slot in the exacta.

I do too. I feel like crap, though, when one of my "2nd's" gets up to beat me. See Sat.'s last at the Big A where I had the (at 28/1) to finish second to either the or the Finish was , and I had no win coverage or box.

Like someone said, you have to be pretty much 100% right to collect in this game. If you want to spread out, there are always decisions to make, and ways to get caught in the switches.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I do too. I feel like crap, though, when one of my "2nd's" gets up to beat me. See Sat.'s last at the Big A where I had the (at 28/1) to finish second to either the or the Finish was , and I had no win coverage or box.

Like someone said, you have to be pretty much 100% right to collect in this game. If you want to spread out, there are always decisions to make, and ways to get caught in the switches.

I had it happen in the 2nd race at Kee yesterday. Of course, one can make a win wager on the side to hedge. I learned the game from a full time bettor, and he loved to spread out in the exotics, as long as it was a big field. I've gone as high as 20 exacta combinations and 50 trifecta tickets. When you are spreading out, your getting those extra runners Joe Public is likely to overlook, or not want to spend the extra money on.

[AceInTheHole]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Very easily. How often do you see two strong contenders in a race battle for much of the race and one wins, and the other tails off completely, and another horse who was never in contention to win, gets up for second? I love taking the 15-1 or 20-1 types in the underneath slot in the exacta.

While the win odds are generally a pretty good reflection of each horse's chances of winning, often times they can be misleading for those chances of running 2nd. Many bettors box their plays, and that can mean certain combinations are underlaid: most often longshots in the win slot, or favorites in the underneath slot.

Races that figure to be tilted toward a slowish pace, or a very fast pace are good candidates to play longshots in the underneath slots.

This was what I was trying to do.