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05-07-2009, 10:52 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: On The Bay
Posts: 9,857
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Why MTB was 50-1 ?
A friend has just informed me that Cal Ripken Jr. had a box for 8 at the KD, and since Cal wore #8 and MTB's jockey was also a "Cal" that everyone in the box bet MTB to win, and I would doubt that these are $2 bettors.
How much would it have taken $$$ wise to knock MTB down from say 75-1 to 50-1 ? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
FWIW- the person who told me this is not a rumor/conspiracy guy.
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05-07-2009, 10:58 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Orlando, Fl
Posts: 804
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj's dad
A friend has just informed me that Cal Ripken Jr. had a box for 8 at the KD, and since Cal wore #8 and MTB's jockey was also a "Cal" that everyone in the box bet MTB to win, and I would doubt that these are $2 bettors.
How much would it have taken $$$ wise to knock MTB down from say 75-1 to 50-1 ? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
FWIW- the person who told me this is not a rumor/conspiracy guy.
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I know someone that bet the 8 as a tribute to Eight Belles, not enough to change the odds though.
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05-07-2009, 11:39 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj's dad
A friend has just informed me that Cal Ripken Jr. had a box for 8 at the KD, and since Cal wore #8 and MTB's jockey was also a "Cal" that everyone in the box bet MTB to win, and I would doubt that these are $2 bettors.
How much would it have taken $$$ wise to knock MTB down from say 75-1 to 50-1 ? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
FWIW- the person who told me this is not a rumor/conspiracy guy.
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My guess Daddy'O is about 1/3 of the Win Pool, since you are moving the odds on the horse by 1/3. I am sure the #'s guys can give you a better answer.  
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05-07-2009, 11:59 AM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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I should of added in my post, an equal and opposite reaction would have happened. All the other 18 horse's odds would have risen by 1/3rd. Of course this is just my SWAG. Scientific Wild ASS Guess. 
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05-07-2009, 12:08 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
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the difference between 50 and 75-1 would be less than a percentage point.
wonder how much cal ripken jr bet for himself?
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05-07-2009, 12:38 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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You may be correct, but I don't think that .33% of 1 percentage of the pools would be enough to make the pools reflect that drop. Then again it may be. I admit to being nothing more than an old horse player and not a mathmatician. 
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05-07-2009, 02:08 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 129
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj's dad
A friend has just informed me that Cal Ripken Jr. had a box for 8 at the KD, and since Cal wore #8 and MTB's jockey was also a "Cal" that everyone in the box bet MTB to win, and I would doubt that these are $2 bettors.
How much would it have taken $$$ wise to knock MTB down from say 75-1 to 50-1 ? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
FWIW- the person who told me this is not a rumor/conspiracy guy.
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The answer (not a guess) is approximately $250,000.
$46mm in the win pool, $38.6mm to be paid out, MTB was 50-1 so ~$750k bet on him, for 75-1 he'd have $500k on him.
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05-07-2009, 03:10 PM
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#8
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AllAboutTheROE
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,411
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by philcski
The answer (not a guess) is approximately $250,000.
$46mm in the win pool, $38.6mm to be paid out, MTB was 50-1 so ~$750k bet on him, for 75-1 he'd have $500k on him.
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Actually less than that. According to BRIS, just over 43 million in the TOTAL mutual pool, so roughly (estimating) about 27.5 million in the win pool. At 50.6/1, MTB had about 450,000 bet on him. To be 75/1 (and assuming that lost money got bet somewhere else), he would have had about 300,000 on him. So about 150,000 moved him from 75 to 50.6.
Last edited by CBedo; 05-07-2009 at 03:14 PM.
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05-07-2009, 03:19 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 129
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBedo
Actually less than that. According to BRIS, just over 43 million in the TOTAL mutual pool, so roughly (estimating) about 27.5 million in the win pool. At 50.6/1, MTB had about 450,000 bet on him. To be 75/1 (and assuming that lost money got bet somewhere else), he would have had about 300,000 on him. So about 150,000 moved him from 75 to 50.6.
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You are probably right. I can't find anything to back up the $46 million win pool figure I was quoted- they may have incorrectly switched win pool for mutuel pool. If your $27.5mm figure is correct, then your math is correct and it's $150k.
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05-07-2009, 03:25 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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The box could conceivably have taken $0.20 off his win price however.
Can someone please mark this thread for " Thread of the Year " consideration.
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05-07-2009, 03:37 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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My apologies to Proximity. Your answer was much closer than mine.
Acording to the DRF Charts (at the top of the page) The Mutuel Pool was $43,434,837.00 1% of that figure would have been $434,348.37 and .33% of that number would have been $143,363.49
All the pool #'s are located at the top of the charts.
Mutuel pool...see above
Exacta pool...$20,447,578.00
Trifecta ...$24,576,756.00
Superfecta ...$8,073,986.00
Super High 5..$313,070.00
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05-07-2009, 03:53 PM
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#12
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,296
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Given the "traditional" road which is followed by over 95% of all colts successful on the first Saturday in May, this one was overlooked plain and simple as having no comparative yardstick. Surprised he went off at odds that low
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"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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05-07-2009, 05:10 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hatfield/Harleysville PA
Posts: 265
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You might all bash for me this but I can see 50/1. There are too many casual betters that just play the derby. I remember reading several posts on this forum where people put bets on the 8 for other members of their family. It may not be much but it all adds up. Some people will put win bets on horses in big races like the derby that just because of the high odds / potential payouts. I think 50/1 was about right considering all the casual betters. Plus some people play their lucky numbers and things like that. If this were 6 years ago when payouts for all superfectas and trifectas occured more often and the $3000 exacta payout was much more common I would have questioned it but I think it is about right.
Last edited by kyle2227; 05-07-2009 at 05:14 PM.
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05-07-2009, 05:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 10,588
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I recall, after the draw, and Battaglia put out the ML, there were a number of people on this forum bashing him for putting out such a stupid line. I'm NOT a Battaglia fan, but I think he did a pretty good job in predicting what the public would do as far as betting. He had 6 horses on the ML at 50-1 and they went off at 50.60, 51.40, 55.20, 43.60, 45.50, and 46.60. While the odds on some of the lower odds horses were no doubt affected by the scratch of the ML favorite. I think the higher odds pretty much maintained where Battaglia said they would. The only horse that went off well over his ML, was ADVICE. 30-1ML, and OFF @ 49.
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05-07-2009, 06:18 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bruddah
My apologies to Proximity.
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no need to apologize to me brudah. i was just curious as to what kind of bettors these ripkens are. probably not as big as pete rose i guess. 
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