Saratoga: Saturday, August 3

[Teach]

Race One:

U S ARMY CORPS is my pick in this turf-route 90k MSW opener. There’s not much to go on, but I like the bloodlines on this 2-year old bay colt, particularly War Front -- he never raced on the turf, but his sire, Danzig, produced a plethora of turf and dirt winners, more than typically would have been expected, were first-time starters. War Front’s son, Declaration of War, broke his maiden, first up. Then there was Summer Front, a first-time turf winner who hit the tote five times in Grade I turf races. The Irish-bred “bottom half” is nothing to sneeze at. The pedigree is there. Will it produce results at first-asking? Joel Rosario is in the irons for trainer “Shug” McGaughey. Others: , , .

[Teach]

Race Two:

GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS was last seen finishing 3rd (placed 2nd through disqualification) downstate at Belmont in the Easy Goer. Prior to that this Sky Mesa-bred was ambitiously enter in the Grade II Wood Memorial (he finished up the track). But here. Now. Against this field. I like this Pulpit-bred’s chances. Jason Servis trains. Jose Lezcano has hit feet in the stirrups. Others: , , .

[Teach]

Race Three:

HEIGHT is my longshot try in this MSW 7-panels sprint. My rationale: I like Union Rags-bred first-time starters. This highly-priced 2-year old colt has solid bloodlines. I believe he’s capable of winning at first asking - at a price. The Hall of Fame trainer from Mount Rushmore land, Bill Mott, is this More Than Ready-bred’s conditioner. Junior Alvarado has the call. Others: , , .

[Teach]

Race Four:

HAY DAKOTA gets my tepid nod in this claiming turf route. What caught my eye was trainer Eddie Kenneally’s record with claim-repeaters: 45%! Admittedly, that’s with a limited sample, but still… The veteran Venezuelan-born reinsman, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. Others: , ,

[Teach]

Race Five:

It’s the Grade III Troy at 5 and ½ panels on the turf for a purse of 200k. My choice is the expected prohibitive odds-on favorite, WORLD OF TROUBLE. I expect World of Trouble to be just that for the rest of this 5-horse field. I anticipate that this Kantharos-bred 4-year old colt will come exploding out of the gate. He’ll be playing: catch-me-if-you-can. Manny Franco reprises the ride for trainer Jason Servis. Others: , .

[Teach]

Race Six:

FREE ENTERPRISE is my pick in the 6 and 1/2-panels MSW sprint. This Curlin-bred was a game 2nd against relatively similar company downstate at Belmont a little over a month ago. Any slight improvement… Javier Castellano has the riding assignment for trainer Chad Brown. Others: , , .

[JohnnyCashin]

You can talk a horse up as much as you want and I still wouldn't use these picks.

[Teach]

Race Seven:

It’s the 100k Fasig-Tipton non-graded Lure to be contested over the distance of one mile and a sixteenth over the Inner Turf course. SACRED LIFE is my pick. This French-bred turfster has, heretofore, been competing “Across the Pond” against stakes company and, I might add, doing quite well. Trainer Chad Brown usually does very well with these European “shippers”. “El Afiladisimo,” Irad Ortiz, Jr., is in the irons. Others: , ,

[Teach]

Race Eight:

It’s the Grade I Longines Test at 7 furlongs for 3-year old fillies for a purse of 500k. I going to wager “a bob or two” that the Tom Amoss-trained SERENGETI EMPRESS can carry her speed the full seven furlongs. I believe this Alternation-bred filly can get the jump on her nearest rival, Bellafina. It will then be up to jockey Jose Ortiz to ration out this Distorted Humor-bred’s speed. If all goes well, she’s first under the wire. Others: , ,

[Teach]

Race Nine:

It’s the piece de resistance, the Grade I Whitney, to be contested over the distance of one mile and one-eighth for a purse of $1,000,000. McKINZIE is my choice. This colt ran into traffic in the Grade I Metropolitan downstate at Belmont a couple months ago. He finished a closing 2nd. A cleaner trip. Mike Smith is in the irons for trainer Bob Baffert. Others: , ,

[Teach]

Race Ten:

In this the non-graded, one mile route on the turf, the Fasig-Tipton De La Rose Stakes, I’ve opted for STELLA DI CAMELOT. This Irish-bred bay filly finished a fast-closing 3rd in her most recent race, the Grade III Intercontinental. That race was conducted over seven furlongs; the additional one-panel stretch should do wonders for this Camelot-bred’s chances. Javier Castellano is in the irons for “The Pride of Mechanicsville, NY,” trainer Chad Brown. Others: , ,

[Teach]

Race Eleven:

In the finale, a turf sprint, I’ve landed on THREE OUTLAWS. Last time out, this Into Mischief-bred had to angle out. This afternoon, that’s not the case. Luis Saez should have this 3-year old chestnut gelding in contention right from the start. Brian Lynch is this Tiznow-bred’s trainer. Others: , , ,

[timtam]

Originally Posted by JohnnyCashin

You can talk a horse up as much as you want and I still wouldn't use these picks.

Then don't

[Honest Abe]

Today’s featured race is race 9 at Saratoga, the $1 million Whitney Stakes, run at 1 1/8 on the dirt for three-year olds and upwards. In the field are a number of top contenders, including the Dubai World Cup winner, Thundersnow, the winner of the Alysheba and Malibu Stakes in McKinzie from the Baffert Barn, the winner of the Suburban Handicap, Preservationist, and the winner of the Santa Anita Gold Cup, Vino Rosso. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Thundersnow in this race with a 34% total winning probability for his class in winning the $12 million Dubai World Cup, while having Preservationist (26.3%) and then McKinzie (17.8%) as its second and third selections. Preservationist has the highest final speed winning estimate in the field according to the simulation results at 68.3%, thanks to a blow out most recent final figure of 116—the highest in the field. This is especially impressive in the context of handicapping the 1 1/8 mi. Whitney, given that the Suburban Handicap was at 1 1/4 mi. Next in the speed results is McKinzie with 24% final speed winning probability, who was second to Mitole in the 1 mile Metropolitan Handicap at the beginning of June. In sum, Preservationalist at 3-1 on the M/L appears to have the edge in this race after having won his last four races, despite the the Suburban Handicap being his only stakes race. This race is reminiscent of the Florida Derby, when Maximum Security with the most speed won, despite not having run in a graded stakes race until that point. Those riding the Baffert bandwagon in taking McKinzie at 3-2 on the M/L may be fooled. However, at the same time, Thundersnow should not be counted out as a horse who shown he can step up to the challenge in big races. The following total results were generated using the Handicap Wizard 4.0 software and 0.5 as the alpha value.


Total Winning Probabilities

THUNDER SNOW 34.01% PRESERVATIONIST 26.34% MCKINZIE 17.79% VINO ROSSO 8.01% MONONGAHELA 7.60% YOSHIDA 5.33% FOREWARNED 0.51% IMPERATIVE 0.41%

[jay68802]

Unfortunately Thunder Snow is scratched. The 11th race has a lot of scratches also.