Besides the -
-ONE HORSE HAS WON EVERY DAMN RACE HE'S BEEN IN angle...there are a few others that are interesting:
GUN RUNNER shows improving speed ratings in every race--his improvement over his 2yo season is noteworthy enough to wonder if his last race is his TOP? With a Bris Par of 102, who's to say 'Runner won't continue, and top out at 108 today, and win the whole shootin' match? 10-1 or more is looking good.
Another nice angle horse is the
DANZIG CANDY ---he shows the good-bad-good-bad Speed Rating Angle--and today is his "Up-Cycle". Another thing 'Candy has going--he shows the HIGHEST RACE-RATING WIN in the entire field.
That 120-rated San Felipe win was huge.
Although there are two E-8's in the race--if you remember Quirin did a study on this situation, and found many times the dominant horse won--and a speed duel never occurred. Picking the dominant lone-speed--OUTWORK, or DANZIG CANDY? Danzig, obviously.
I would love this horse if it weren't for his #20 post position--he's gonna have to cross the entire field right out of the gate--to get the rail and have any chance.....unless he has some tactical speed we don't know about.
Also not in his favor--his last pace line
118-119/ 53..... with a drop-off like that, even with the +25 +17 scorching over-par pace--unless the horse in question is dropping down in class--he's a toss-out.
The maddening thing about this...NYQUIST will probably win, and bettors who didn't do their homework and always take the favorite-- will cash.
good luck all
-NCG
