*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

I left off the trainer info because quite frankly the guy has been through enough--I don't want to publicly bash him further. I think he actually may have put his last couple of $20's on 'STERLING. Looking back in the PP's...this clearly wasn't the first attempt at a score with this horse. This was the first that WORKED. The owner/trainer is maybe 2 for 250--so he's not making any money on purses. I'm glad for him.

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[REBel]

For those wanting a user's group and a list of various plays, I went back through the previous 114 pages of this thread and found the following:

These are TOP/EARLY TOP/LATE PLAYS
*all you need to do to find the early/late horses---click early---hi-lite the top horse---then click late...if it's the SAME HORSE at a price that's acceptable to you....that's your play LATE BUTTON...and then look for any horse that led first call.

TOP 4 ABILITY Click on 2.5L---sort by ABILITY--any horse in the TOP 4 @ 10-1 or better is a play. Post 1686

The > means the horse was on the lead at the first call in the last race, is back in 16 days or less and did not win the last race.
The * indicates there is at least a 10 point gap between the best and second best SPEED BLAST numbers.

HIGH CLASS They win a lot. I think they win near what % favorites win at.

LONE POWER METHOD and works like this---click on 2.5L....then sort by POWER.

Using Power Numbers only--what I did was click on Top-1 Power & Top-2 Power--then look for a big gap between top power and 2nd--at least 20 points.
I did happen to notice horses that are on the Best Bets list--AND on the High Class list....win a lot.

We also have Presque, Belmont, Remington Park,Finger Lakes is always good.

DUCKS GET THE SCRATCHES FIRST---then click the #1POWER. Any horse in double digit ML odds is your duck.

Click the #1 POWER....then sort those. Take the top half--If the card has 10 races, your top 5 are plays. If 9 races--then play the top-4....and so on.

Here's the SPEED PAR METHOD: the Bris speed showing in Pace View is, of course--the best of last two. I take the average of the top three, which in this 8th race @ ALB--we have a top-3 of 93--90--88. About a 90 AVG . My idea is to just eliminate any horse that hasn't come within 10 of that figure.
So any horse that doesn't show at least an 80 is out.

The SPEED BLAST button is there to alert you to a possible horse with

a speed-advantage. When you click the button, and a horse pops up---go to

that race and click SPEED BLAST. That will show you that horse on top.

Hi-Lite that horse...and click EARLY POWER, then LATE POWER.

Same horse in all 3? You may have a bet here. Useful in 5F and 5.5F races.
After TOP POWER---TOP PRIME, TOP EARLY, TOP LATE, then look at everything else.

Handicapping Method/Spot Play Instructions
-TOP POWER NUMBER IN THE RACE--BY 10 POINTS MIN--if not..pass the race, this method won't work in this race. If your horse qualifies--then check these next 4:

-MUST NOT BE THE ML FAV

-MUST BE TOP-2 PRIME POWER

-MUST BE TOP 2 EARLY POWER

-MUST BE TOP 2 LATE POWER

LATE/00 Belmont play: click the Late button today--look at the horses that were up close. Not necessarily on the lead but near it.

Hope this is helpful and informative.

Ron

[NorCalGreg]

Don't see any monsters @ Turf Paradise (hey why do they call in "Turfway" ---and they don't even have a blade of grass in the place?)

Anyway at Turf Paradise where they have something resembling a turf track---or they have the decency to paint the brown parts to resemble turf---I have come up with a few

3RD HONEY IN PARADISE 5-1

5TH ALWAYS MACHO 4-1

6TH - EX BOX -- SCRATCHED

8TH COME AWAY HOME 6-1

good luck -NCG

[green80]

Originally Posted by REBel

For those wanting a user's group and a list of various plays, I went back through the previous 114 pages of this thread and found the following:

These are TOP/EARLY TOP/LATE PLAYS
*all you need to do to find the early/late horses---click early---hi-lite the top horse---then click late...if it's the SAME HORSE at a price that's acceptable to you....that's your play LATE BUTTON...and then look for any horse that led first call.

TOP 4 ABILITY Click on 2.5L---sort by ABILITY--any horse in the TOP 4 @ 10-1 or better is a play. Post 1686

The > means the horse was on the lead at the first call in the last race, is back in 16 days or less and did not win the last race.
The * indicates there is at least a 10 point gap between the best and second best SPEED BLAST numbers.

HIGH CLASS They win a lot. I think they win near what % favorites win at.

LONE POWER METHOD and works like this---click on 2.5L....then sort by POWER.

Using Power Numbers only--what I did was click on Top-1 Power & Top-2 Power--then look for a big gap between top power and 2nd--at least 20 points.
I did happen to notice horses that are on the Best Bets list--AND on the High Class list....win a lot.

We also have Presque, Belmont, Remington Park,Finger Lakes is always good.

DUCKS GET THE SCRATCHES FIRST---then click the #1POWER. Any horse in double digit ML odds is your duck.

Click the #1 POWER....then sort those. Take the top half--If the card has 10 races, your top 5 are plays. If 9 races--then play the top-4....and so on.

Here's the SPEED PAR METHOD: the Bris speed showing in Pace View is, of course--the best of last two. I take the average of the top three, which in this 8th race @ ALB--we have a top-3 of 93--90--88. About a 90 AVG . My idea is to just eliminate any horse that hasn't come within 10 of that figure.
So any horse that doesn't show at least an 80 is out.

The SPEED BLAST button is there to alert you to a possible horse with

a speed-advantage. When you click the button, and a horse pops up---go to

that race and click SPEED BLAST. That will show you that horse on top.

Hi-Lite that horse...and click EARLY POWER, then LATE POWER.

Same horse in all 3? You may have a bet here. Useful in 5F and 5.5F races.
After TOP POWER---TOP PRIME, TOP EARLY, TOP LATE, then look at everything else.

Handicapping Method/Spot Play Instructions
-TOP POWER NUMBER IN THE RACE--BY 10 POINTS MIN--if not..pass the race, this method won't work in this race. If your horse qualifies--then check these next 4:

-MUST NOT BE THE ML FAV

-MUST BE TOP-2 PRIME POWER

-MUST BE TOP 2 EARLY POWER

-MUST BE TOP 2 LATE POWER

LATE/00 Belmont play: click the Late button today--look at the horses that were up close. Not necessarily on the lead but near it.

Hope this is helpful and informative.

Ron

Thats what is needed Ron, all the plays in one place. All one need to do is see what is working at their track. Just keep up with the winners for a few days and you will see which one of the plays will work for you.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Don't see any monsters @ Turf Paradise (hey why do they call in "Turfway" ---and they don't even have a blade of grass in the place?)

Anyway at Turf Paradise where they have something resembling a turf track---or they have the decency to paint the brown parts to resemble turf---I have come up with a few

3RD HONEY IN PARADISE 5-1

5TH ALWAYS MACHO 4-1

6TH - EX BOX -- SCRATCHED

8TH COME AWAY HOME 6-1

good luck -NCG

Turfway is that track in Ky that has all turf races.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I mentioned working on a program I'm calling TRAINER MOVES...something to gives a "heads up" when a trainer does something, well....unusual. Not necessarily nefarious--just out of the ordinary. Maybe a positive rider switch....
unusual distance switch--or not anything the trainer did at all. A horse showing subtle improvement, or one of my favorites---a maiden winner coming off a "Power Win" facing winners for the first time.

Anyway...yesterday @ MNR ---6th race, a horse named STERLING THUNDER 30-1 ML shows up as an unusual Dist/Sw.

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Greg, So a horse that's run in 4 straight sprints of 5-1/2 to 6f, then runs in a 1m70 and today back to a sprint is an unusual switch? Looking at that route, Sterling Thunder showed a wake-up in his early speed, and right back to a sprint. His pace improvement numbers look impressive, which I've been using when no one in a race shows any total speed improvement. Zandale, the place horse did show +28 speed improvement. That angle has shown me a few winners. His pace numbers by my method improved +16 or +18 depending. The early fractions he ran in that route would have won three out of four of those previous sprints. Thanks for posting this, more to think about. Congratulations on your system picking ST.

[REBel]

Originally Posted by green80

Turfway is that track in Ky that has all turf races.

I think Turfway is Poly. Kentucky Downs is all turf races.

Ron

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, So a horse that's run in 4 straight sprints of 5-1/2 to 6f, then runs in a 1m70 and today back to a sprint is an unusual switch? Looking at that route, Sterling Thunder showed a wake-up in his early speed, and right back to a sprint. His pace improvement numbers look impressive, which I've been using when no one in a race shows any total speed improvement. Zandale, the place horse did show +28 speed improvement. That angle has shown me a few winners. His pace numbers by my method improved +16 or +18 depending. The early fractions he ran in that route would have won three out of four of those previous sprints. Thanks for posting this, more to think about. Congratulations on your system picking ST.

Actually, the "alert" trigger is a horse that runs 80% sprints---switches to a route---and is back quickly today in a sprint again. This horse had been all over the place with nonsensical class switches, that 7F turf debacle, the layoff, the crazy apparent stable betting, etc.

Wow....that's why I said I'm glad for the trainer to finally get one--he's sure earned it.

[NorCalGreg]

Ron (REBel) thanks a lot for your efforts. I didn't know there were that many unpublished plays. I thought everyone knew them. I'll put that list on the website---again many thanks.

And also thank you for the data-keeping you're doing. Used to be someone doing that for "considerations" --but guess those considerations aren't enough motivation anymore.

[green80]

Originally Posted by REBel

I think Turfway is Poly. Kentucky Downs is all turf races.

Ron

You're right, I stand corrected.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Ron (REBel) thanks a lot for your efforts. I didn't know there were that many unpublished plays. I thought everyone knew them. I'll put that list on the website---again many thanks.

And also thank you for the data-keeping you're doing. Used to be someone doing that for "considerations" --but guess those considerations aren't enough motivation anymore.

With this advanced alzheimers it's tough to keep up with all these plays

[NorCalGreg]

So far...for the first few days Turf Paradise is running exactly the OPPOSITE of what I was expecting. But what in horse racing happens as expected?
Any pace or speed angles are firing duds without the $25.00 EXPONENTIALLY on day one....4 for 20 counting all races. What really irked me was TOP EARLY POWER Winner HIDE THE GOOD STUFF... I can't take 4-1 ML on a Trainer with a 0-25 shipper record...combined he and his rider had won like 8 races--so Good Stuff wins and pays $22.20.

To add insult to injury....TOP ABILITY is 10 for 20. That's right---just by sorting all 20 thoroughbred races that have run so far, by Ability, and betting the top one---you would have nailed 10.

Life just isn't fair.

[bruin95]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

So far...for the first few days Turf Paradise is running exactly the OPPOSITE of what I was expecting. But what in horse racing happens as expected?
Any pace or speed angles are firing duds without the $25.00 EXPONENTIALLY on day one....4 for 20 counting all races. What really irked me was TOP EARLY POWER Winner HIDE THE GOOD STUFF... I can't take 4-1 ML on a Trainer with a 0-25 shipper record...combined he and his rider had won like 8 races--so Good Stuff wins and pays $22.20.

To add insult to injury....TOP ABILITY is 10 for 20. That's right---just by sorting all 20 thoroughbred races that have run so far, by Ability, and betting the top one---you would have nailed 10.

Life just isn't fair.

I noticed that the SPEED Rating had the winner in the top 2 in 7 of 8 races, and on top in 4 of 8. In the race the winner wasn't in the top 2, it was third. I wonder what were the results from the first two days. Could be something for Pick 3, 4, and 5 players.

Also, boxing the Top 3 under the SPEED rating, yesterday, for a $1 exacta, would have returned a $169.50 profit, if my calculations are correct.

[green80]

You're right. Also, as NCG mentioned ability, the top ability rated horse won 5 of the 6 sprint races, including a 22.20 horse in the 3rd, with the exacta straight. If you use a combination of the speed and ability ratings you are doing well at TUP. Seems like they always throw in a race that doesn't fit the profile in those pic 4&5's

[NorCalGreg]

Was another day of 1 TOP-4 ABILITY play @ PRX--once again it won, but was bet down again and yours truly collected squadoosh.

10-1 ML NORTH OCEAN paid $11.20. I need a $20 payoff personally, although the last 3 winners have come up short. I'll show some bettor's discipline and stick to my agreed upon minimum odds. The last winner I collected on was the $28 winner @ Woodbine, of all places.