I did not handicap this race either. However, with the scratch of the early speed horse (as mentioned above) did anyone run any pace/velo numbers on the existing runners? This horse may indeed figure well with VELO 1 off a recent paceline despite not being on the lead. Therefore, helping this horse inherit the lead today (or that day in question). Does anyone have the PP's for that race so they can paste the link in here?
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
I did not handicap this race either. However, with the scratch of the early speed horse (as mentioned above) did anyone run any pace/velo numbers on the existing runners? This horse may indeed figure well with VELO 1 off a recent paceline despite not being on the lead. Therefore, helping this horse inherit the lead today (or that day in question). Does anyone have the PP's for that race so they can paste the link in here?
Someone may have the PPs, I can only share my own stuff on the race which I'll attach to this post. As mentioned I had the 9 horse ranked in a tie for third on the early pace figure and this was a race with no confirmed E horses left in it so even horses that may have projected ahead of the 9 there's really no guarantee any of them had actual intent to send out of there in a heads-up fashion. Some of these horse's trainers may give instructions along the lines of the horse wants a target to run at so there's often no intent to actually 'send' sp horses even though it may be the right thing to do in this particular race we can't expect actual handicapping to occur.
If you look at the screenshot I uploaded with the highlights, it's the field sorted by early pace figure. So things that jump out at me are the early pace should be soft early as there is no E and only one presser with sustained pressers filling out the top half of the field. The way to play then would be to fade the #2 at 6-5 odds who projects to be running dead last early and then should encounter a lot of resistance trying to chase down fresh horses late. The 6 & 9 are ranked 1st and 2nd on class but the 6 should be extremely difficult for the 9 to get past given the flow with its mid-pack position. So for me, I'd say fade the 8,1 & 2 pure sustained horses which project from the back of the pack. You have three horses projecting on or near the lead on early pace that are prices, between 9-1 and 12-1, makes send to me to try using these horses on top in doubles or the exacta as the 6 is honestly a no-brainer to either win or run second with this kind of race flow, your call, drilling the exacta is another option. 3-4-9 over 6 might be a long-term winning exacta ticket (as an action bet) IMO. It worked this time but probably only because there was trouble at the break because if the 3 makes the lead and the 9 presses it's pretty obvious the 6 is almost surely going to run him down. I don't look at it as a race I could crush because I'd have liked the 6 myself but the odds were too low to get excited about. It would be some sort of action bet race to bet on the flow, try to leverage those 20$ horses up front.
It's also a fantastic example of a race that in a perfect world this 'industry' would have figured out a way to offer a match up bet at -115 fixed odds between these two favorites, at 1.10 and 1.20 to one I would be looking to drill 1k onto this 6 to finish in front of the 2 given the flow.
That type of wager IMO beats the living hell out of taking 1.1 to win on the 6 horse and then tearing up tickets for two silly reasons, (A) the 3 didn't break and (B) the 9 fired a peak effort. So it ends up instead that if you bet flat on the 6 you tore up tickets, if you singled the 6 you got busted out of a longer horizontal. It's this extreme top heavy focus on wagers forcing identification of the race winner unnecessarily which is problematic IMO. Due to the lack of a match up wager on offer, instead of having half of the people cashing you instead have perhaps three out of four people that are very likely not going to be back to churn on tomorrows events after a race result like this.
When I was handicapping I always looked for horses with the top 2 or 3 late fractions in routes but had to have either the top two early speed #’s or have a higher e.s.# among the top 3 best closers in a route race (dirt or grass), just the opposite for sprinters. My theory being I wanted a top closer who’s going to be in touch with the field. Sometimes you get both, a horse who can rate on or just off the pace and then pull away. Sometimes jockeys won’t challenge a horse like that thinking he’s going to get used up but they get fooled by the slow pace. This horse showed some really fast early fractions in some races but also showed that closing kick. This horse is not a sprinter and note after two horrible looking sprints he came back with good efforts. Also note that he ran 2nd at 41-1 in what appeared to be his first attempt routing. If I would’ve played the race I would pounce at 9-1 but at 6-1 to 4-1 I would use 1-2 in exotics. But that’s me.
Now some people just watch the board like I’ve been doing since my fall at the end of June. I happen to be real good at it. Of course I started back in the late 70’s, early 80’s and I really remember everything I did back then. It takes the subjective or qualitative pieces out of the equation and just concentrate on the quantitative side of the equation. Like you guys figuring out the pace, I follow a certain procedure in every race where I can tell if I’m going to get a price or not. What really gets my goat is that while I’m looking at Aqu or Laurel , they’ll put over a $84 bomb at CD. I really have to computerize my scanning method to get the jump on these guys.
Omar
Another thing about the #9 Vale Male is I had her projected odds at 18-1, yet she went off at 9-1.
I have found that it's not unusual for projected odds to be off slightly when compared to final odds, especially when the projected odds are long. But not off by almost 50%.
Just curious if anyone else had projected odds for #9 ?
Edit: BTW, the DD matrix is posted below, if anyone is interested.
Like I said in an earlier post somewhere, I don’t try to project odds with future
horses in next race because after many trial races (several months )I found it not to be as reliable as my modified Illich method because if I feel the horse is taking money then my only decision is to accept the odds or not and bet accordingly.
To see what I do you’ll have to read my posts. I only bought BC day one pp’s, scanned the first four races for some spot plays. Found one in r2, #4, goes off at 45-1, runs 2nd and pays $28.60 to place. Don’t really need the pp’s, first one I bought in 2 months.
Omar2
Well sometimes using the DD matrix is very accurate, other times (like in this race) not so much. But then nothing works all the time in this game.
I believe I have Al Illich's "How To Pick Winners" somewhere in my library of old horse racing books. I'm always open to learning new methods so I'll have to dig it out and then try to find your posts about your modified Illich method.
But I have to say, I don't think I could play the races without having some type of PP data available. Your modified Illich method must be heavily modified!
There are different scenarios that come up in rare cases.
Can't find the race after a couple guesses ('capped last night to beat a favorite whom I realized was not vulnerable).
There was a horse who had graduated a weaker claiming condition who had won leading or pressing after a page-full of P or S attempts. I don't know the pace-projection for that previous race, and whether the likely speed 'fired'.
According to Bris their pace figs were much higher for this horse last time. A new jockey had been assigned last time, and was listed to ride again today(he may have earned the job).
Did not see other changes like trainer/owner/blinkers etc...
Don't know his Bris style designation in the prior race, but they now listed him an E or E/P I'm assuming in part due to his last race.
Just one rare example. It looks (at least on the surface) like the medium-small barn gave a different mid-low level jockey a chance and he was aggressive and it worked. Something to look out for.
disclaimer = Also possible other things happened (it's possible I suppose healed from injury, or was a previous E style before committing to a board-hitting style once he began to quit or lost a step... It's not always the simple answer but I'll use it for the example
I usually review the results at the end of the day and when I see a high priced winner I’ll take screenshots of the boards and review the race whether I played the race(or track) or not. This past Saturday I fell asleep early and when I awoke at 5am Xpressbet removed the laurel race results and couldn’t Acess the screens I wanted. I was peeved because I played the big A that day thinking they might put over another big price horse like the day before($104.80) but I was wrong and just never looked at Laurel Saturday. Go figure, because previous weeks I did and caught some good prices there.
But you can read my recent posts or my BC Classic review, no pp’s for those races. I remember catching that 5 horse earlier in his races when he won at a price (same method). I posted my Classic picks a few minutes before it went off. You have to understand what I do U won’t find in any book. I figured out what I do over 40 years ago when very few people were charting doubles and exactas and I refined it over time.
Omar
These were my computer calculated running style ratings.
There was almost no speed in the race. The closest thing to a speed horse was a "Near Front Runner". I had Vale Male rated 3rd on early speed. The 1st rated horses was off slowly and 2nd rated horse got bumped at the start.
