Handle plunge

[Cholly]

In the Paulick Report story on the Keeneland handle decline, there was an anonymously submitted comment that caught my attention. He claimed that a major betting syndicate exiting the U.S. market was responsible for the plunge in total national handle (10.6%) recorded in September vs. Sept '13. He also predicted that October figures would be down similarly.

I don’t vest heavily in anonymous internet comments, but the September plunge was drastic and asymptomatic. In recent years the monthly comparisons (year-to-year) mostly fall in the window from +1% to -3%.

Has anyone heard rumors of a major syndicate quitting U.S. racing? Could one group actually be responsible for appx. 8% of total national handle?

[RXB]

8% of annual handle in the US these days would be just under a billion dollars. Big pot of money but not unthinkable for a huge syndicate.

I have no idea whether the claim is true or not. Racing dates were down by 6.1% compared to Sept 2013, number of races down 6.8% and total starters down by 7.7%, which would contribute to the decline. But that shouldn't be enough to cause a 10% handle drop.

It'll be interesting to see the final October handle numbers.

[PaceAdvantage]

I believe it...unless everything you hear about whales is BS, and I don't believe it is BS, as some here do.

I don't think the syndicate is solely responsible for the entire drop in handle, but I'm sure they would contribute a significant chunk.

Racing dates drop + number of races drop + total starters drop + exit of syndicate could easily add up to a 10% haircut.

[ronsmac]

According to the la turf club 2012-13 summary covering that yrs winter meet, members from elite turf club bet 32 million on their races in a little less than 4 months and were projected to bet 127 mil on nyra's race's in 2012. According to nyra , elite had 8 people betting their race's that yr. That's just 2 tracks.

[Al Gobbi]

Keeneland and Santa Anita both took a beating last week in handle.... expect October to have a similar decline, though it may be offset somewhat with the Friday Breeders' Cup card.

[Dave Schwartz]

He claimed that a major betting syndicate exiting the U.S. market was responsible for the plunge in total national handle (10.6%) recorded in September vs. Sept '13. He also predicted that October figures would be down similarly.

Considering that KEE rebates were pretty much non-existent, I'd be surprised if that was the case.

[badcompany]

Del Mar took a big hit, this year, in both handle and attendance. People are simply finding other things to do.

I haven't placed a bet since I left Saratoga at the end of August. It's really not that hard.

[TexasDolly]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Considering that KEE rebates were pretty much non-existent, I'd be surprised if that was the case.

Are saying that the tracks are primarily the rebate source for the big players ?
TD

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by badcompany

Del Mar took a big hit, this year, in both handle and attendance. People are simply finding other things to do.

I haven't placed a bet since I left Saratoga at the end of August. It's really not that hard.

This game is like a boxer that keeps getting knocked down, finally you don't get up off the canvas any more.
The value that once existed has disappeared with computer batch betting.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by SandyW

This game is like a boxer that keeps getting knocked down, finally you don't get up off the canvas any more.
The value that once existed has disappeared with computer batch betting.

This is right.

Players have found a way to have a computer invest thousands of dollars onto combinations to EXACTLY reflect their opinion.....before these computers that were betting for people, those bettors had to "construct" part wheels and that was much more inefficient. With all bettors having to deal with same inefficiencies, there were times when any one of us would make a "good hit" and actually get paid excess money (overlay) for that score. Those times we actually got paid more than we were supposed to were the buffers for the times when we made losing bets. Now, when you win, you only get what you're supposed to (or less) and not any extra.

As far as the original post goes, i wonder if the death of Dan Borislow is a factor, maybe this guy was betting hundreds of millions into the pools and now that money isn't being bet, could this be a factor? I dont know if Borislow was an everyday player or not, but his handle is gone so by definition, betting pools are smaller, not sure how much of a whale he was though on an everyday basis.

[BIG49010]

Seems that handle and field size go hand in hand, and for some reason they just are not getting large fields at Keeneland. I am surprised by the field sizes at Gulfstream and Laurel. I don't know if weather is really helping either, but short fields and short prices send players to other tracks looking for value.

[Dave Schwartz]

Are saying that the tracks are primarily the rebate source for the big players ?

Brunson,

Via the ADWs, but, yes, of course. The rebates are tied directly to host fees and whether or not the track will PERMIT rebating.

If there is no rebate then the ADWs have nothing special to offer.