Long Ones

[Aner]

Long Ones

When your carefully selected horse goes off at 4:1 only to drop to 5/2 during the run, you might well throw up your hands in disgust. But that much money means other horses had a spike in odds. Normally these spikes happen with the longest shots ( the ones least likely to win ). As I understand it, whales need volume bets to get the highest rebates. This means they have to tread softly with the long ones.

I plan to post picks which are 10:1 or higher on the morning line, before scratches. According to Dave's "Percentages & Probabilities, 2012", if one separates horses based on morning line odds into two groups (front half with lowest ML and rear half with highest ML), the rear half will win 4.6% of the time and return only $1.37 for every $2.00 bet. At ML 10+ most of my picks will be in this high risk category. Of course, no sane person would bet all the long ones. I hope to find a pony or two in the muck. My goal is to hit at a 7% or higher rate and show a profit at the end.

[Aner]

Date Track -----Horse
01/01/14

1 FG 4----- #2 Macabe's Gold
2 FG 5----- #10 Lovely Tribute
3 FG 9----- #1 John Louis Market
4 GP 1----- #2 Birds Gone Wild
5 GP 3----- #8 Defend
6 GP 5----- #9 Charlie the Boss
7 GP 6----- #1 Rey Rocket
8 GP 8----- #1 Love to Score
9 GP 10----- #6 Fiddlers Tango
10 SA 3----- #6 Romeo Royale
11 SA 6----- #4 Perfecta
12 SA 7----- #3 Q' Viva
13 SA 8----- #3 One More Wild Ride
14 DeD 1----- #4 Rulers Star
15 DeD 4----- #6 Song Forever
16 DeD 6----- #4 Montaguska
17 DeD 7----- #7 Artic Comet
18 DeD 8----- #8 Silver Special

[Jay Trotter]

Good luck Aner! If anyone can do it you can. Is this a year long project?

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Aner

Date Track -----Horse
01/01/14

1 FG 4----- #2 Macabe's Gold
2 FG 5----- #10 Lovely Tribute
3 FG 9----- #1 John Louis Market
4 GP 1----- #2 Birds Gone Wild
5 GP 3----- #8 Defend
6 GP 5----- #9 Charlie the Boss
7 GP 6----- #1 Rey Rocket
8 GP 8----- #1 Love to Score
9 GP 10----- #6 Fiddlers Tango-------XXXX, 20.20
10 SA 3----- #6 Romeo Royale
11 SA 6----- #4 Perfecta
12 SA 7----- #3 Q' Viva
13 SA 8----- #3 One More Wild Ride
14 DeD 1----- #4 Rulers Star
15 DeD 4----- #6 Song Forever
16 DeD 6----- #4 Montaguska
17 DeD 7----- #7 Artic Comet
18 DeD 8----- #8 Silver Special

# of wins--- 0
# of bets--- 18


$ bet---- 36
$back---- 0
$ loss--- -36

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Jay Trotter

Good luck Aner! If anyone can do it you can. Is this a year long project?

In will try to last at least through January. Long run-outs are depressing. If I get hopelessly behind, I may abort.

[Aner]

01/02/14

19--- Aqu 5----- #7 Flowing Mane
20--- Aqu 6----- #3 Where's Elliot
21--- Aqu 7----- #2 Special Action
22--- Aqu 9----- #12 Television Too
23--- GP 1----- #2 Amber Morning
24--- GP 7----- #4 Rodan
25--- GP 8----- #4 Console
26--- GP 8----- #7 Starship Wildcat
27--- GP 9----- #1 All Knight
28--- GP 10----- #4 Addar
29--- GP -10-----#7 Big N Toasty
30--- DeD 2----- #6 Country Fine
31--- DeD 3----- #4 Private Duchness
32--- DeD 4----- #7 Chicks a Flying
33--- DeD 5----- #10 Cowboy Justice
34--- DeD 8----- #2 Paxmanforpete
35--- DeD 10---- #4 Robin's Sport

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Aner

01/02/14

19--- Aqu 5----- #7 Flowing Mane
20--- Aqu 6----- #3 Where's Elliot
21--- Aqu 7----- #2 Special Action
22--- Aqu 9----- #12 Television Too
23--- GP 1----- #2 Amber Morning
24--- GP 7----- #4 Rodan
25--- GP 8----- #4 Console
26--- GP 8----- #7 Starship Wildcat
27--- GP 9----- #1 All Knight
28--- GP 10----- #4 Addar
29--- GP -10-----#7 Big N Toasty
30--- DeD 2----- #6 Country Fine
31--- DeD 3----- #4 Private Duchness
32--- DeD 4----- #7 Chicks a Flying
33--- DeD 5----- #10 Cowboy Justice
34--- DeD 8----- #2 Paxmanforpete
35--- DeD 10---- #4 Robin's Sport

If Console runs his Saratoga race he destroys that group. Thats a big if, but Im going to mess around with him a little in pick 3's. You're dreaming if you think you're getting 12-1. No more then 5-1 at post time.

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Aner

01/02/14

19--- Aqu 5----- #7 Flowing Mane
20--- Aqu 6----- #3 Where's Elliot
21--- Aqu 7----- #2 Special Action
22--- Aqu 9----- #12 Television Too
23--- GP 1----- #2 Amber Morning
24--- GP 7----- #4 Rodan
25--- GP 8----- #4 Console
26--- GP 8----- #7 Starship Wildcat
27--- GP 9----- #1 All Knight
28--- GP 10----- #4 Addar
29--- GP -10-----#7 Big N Toasty
30--- DeD 2----- #6 Country Fine----------------cancelled
31--- DeD 3----- #4 Private Duchness-----------cancelled
32--- DeD 4----- #7 Chicks a Flying--------------cancelled
33--- DeD 5----- #10 Cowboy Justice------------cancelled
34--- DeD 8----- #2 Paxmanforpete-------------cancelled
35--- DeD 10---- #4 Robin's Sport---------------cancelled

# of wins 0
# of bets 29
% frequency 0%


$ bet-------- 58
$back------ 0
$ loss------------58

[lamboguy]

8th Santa Anita

i took a shot at #3
ROCKIN COWGIRL

[lamboguy]

i just hope the kid that went down, Gonzolo Nicholas is ok after his spill in the lst race in Santa Anita

[Aner]

01/04/14

30--- Aqu 4----- #9 L B's Expression
31--- Aqu 9----- #1 Matching Skies
32--- Aqu 9------#3 Inspeightofthegold
33--- Tam 1----- #4 Miss Motivator
34--- Tam 2----- #5 Nell's Luck
35--- Tam 6----- #11 Peaceful Prince
36--- Tam 9----- #1 Henny Jenney
37--- GP 5----- #4 High Intense
38--- GP 6----- It's Time to Laugh
39--- GP 10----- #5 Cool Cowboy
40--- GP 11----- #11 Harbor Mistress
41--- FG 7----- #3 Spiral Stair
42--- FG 9----- #7 Storm's Promise
43--- SA 5----- #6 Los Barrachos
44--- SA 9----- #4 Head South

[HUSKER55]

i sure hope you had the exacta. $400 would be easy to take Tampa bay race #2

[Robert Fischer]

Prx r3
1. Zuerstgold

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Prx r3
1. Zuerstgold

2nd @11-1 (10-ml)
0.00 8.20 3.80

[Robert Fischer]

Lrl r4
3. Jump Two