Pick Five handicapping players only

[1st time lasix]

With the proliferation of the low take-out fifty cent pick five at tracks in US.....i find myself gravitating toward this multi-race exotic pool It probably fits my desire to do a little advance handicapping....seek lower take pools.....and have more serious opportunity for an overlay A "bet small...win big philosophy" i guess. Clearly there is growth in this exotic handle-- so i must not be alone Have to be numerous accomplished players on this forum that have developed sucessful strategies and have helpful informative stats on this wager. A few questiions:some basic...some strategic....there seems to be inconsistancy in those venues that will pay four out of five.. 1} Who does....who doesn't? 2}Assuming one uses a Crist method of ranking contenders and filling out multiple tickes..... why not seek vulnerability of the favorites in leg one and/or leg two in the sequence and always structure around them? {unless there is a carry} 3}There now seems to be a pick four beginning in the next leg and generaly rolling threes and doubles following on any given card. Is there a method of exploiting this? Say.... a sort of -if this happens ...then this should happen ....type of wagering preference.4} What kind of average bankroll are the particpants using on this exotic? is it enough? Is that in itself the reason to go after it or shun it at specific places?

[tanner12oz]

The California pick 5 at Hollywood. Delmar and Sa is the most solid wager going right now...competitive fields..low takeout...good pool size..quality tracks..
seriously nothing compares and the discussion begins and ends there

[1st time lasix]

"so the discussion ends there"..... that sure helps

[RunForTheRoses]

Out of major tracks, I think only Gulfstream and Keeneland offer 4 of 5. NYRA and SoCal do not. My initial opinion was the conso is good, now not so sure. It is nice when you can recoup a big chunk of your money with multi consos but, if you hit you get less.

Personally, I don't really like the Crist approach and probably it is because he is a much better handicapper than me who can more accurately rate contenders. I've done best in P4s and 5s when going deep in many legs, that is using Bs and Cs in more than one or even two legs, and singling in one leg, maybe two in another, e.g. 5X4X5X2X1. It can be a tough bet to hit, you will go a while with some real close calls, best I did was Jan 2012 GP, had a singlr on last leg, hit a $60 horse in one leg I went 4 deep, paid $4900, also had P4 twice. But, I have many woulda, coulda, shoulda stories. Even so look forward to this weekends opportunities in the BC.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Out of major tracks, I think only Gulfstream and Keeneland offer 4 of 5. NYRA and SoCal do not. My initial opinion was the conso is good, now not so sure. It is nice when you can recoup a big chunk of your money with multi consos but, if you hit you get less.

Personally, I don't really like the Crist approach and probably it is because he is a much better handicapper than me who can more accurately rate contenders. I've done best in P4s and 5s when going deep in many legs, that is using Bs and Cs in more than one or even two legs, and singling in one leg, maybe two in another, e.g. 5X4X5X2X1. It can be a tough bet to hit, you will go a while with some real close calls, best I did was Jan 2012 GP, had a singlr on last leg, hit a $60 horse in one leg I went 4 deep, paid $4900, also had P4 twice. But, I have many woulda, coulda, shoulda stories. Even so look forward to this weekends opportunities in the BC.

I like the conso because you're going to hit 4 out of 5 WAY more than you hit 5 out of 5....and, on the rare occasion you hit 5, you arent going to care that you got a lower payout, because that lower payout gets "made up" by having a ton of consos anyway. I like the idea of "getting something back" for psychological health....this is a rough game and people betting pick anything's are going to lose way more than they're going to win, so to get a little bit back is really a good idea i believe.

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I like the conso because you're going to hit 4 out of 5 WAY more than you hit 5 out of 5....and, on the rare occasion you hit 5, you arent going to care that you got a lower payout, because that lower payout gets "made up" by having a ton of consos anyway. I like the idea of "getting something back" for psychological health....this is a rough game and people betting pick anything's are going to lose way more than they're going to win, so to get a little bit back is really a good idea i believe.

Your probably right, the variance on this bet is real high and for a weekend warrior getting most of my money back or a slight profit is best. But I won't stop playing NYRA or SoCal either.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Your probably right, the variance on this bet is real high and for a weekend warrior getting most of my money back or a slight profit is best. But I won't stop playing NYRA or SoCal either.

I dont think players need a conso in NY, they have the pick 5 in the first 5 races and that's where they stick all the short fields with standout horses, its really hard to get a bonanza payout in NY, you usually get at least one even money shot winner in the first 5 races and that kills the prices, i like how Keeneland and other tracks do it, the last 5 races are the pick 5, you have a shot for a huge score at that place because the later races are usually the most wide open.

[davew]

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by davew

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

The pick 5 is SO hard to hit, i can't tell you how many times i had 4 out of 5 and got beat in a race where i went 6, 7, or 8 deep and lost that leg.

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by davew

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

Then you have to factor in when you do hit it may be a signer, especially a less than $5K signer where they do not withold. I do not normally itemize so this is not good. I love the challenge of hitting one but it probably would be more prudent to go to an exacta, DD, WPS strategy.

[pandy]

Catskill Steve (at www.ustrotting.com) hit the 50 cent Pick 5 at Yonkers last night, paid $1190 for 50 cents and he now has a profit even though he lost his first 35 wagers. That's the thing with these types of bets. If you have the stomach for it, you can show a profit over the long haul because the value is there.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

Catskill Steve (at www.ustrotting.com) hit the 50 cent Pick 5 at Yonkers last night, paid $1190 for 50 cents and he now has a profit even though he lost his first 35 wagers. That's the thing with these types of bets. If you have the stomach for it, you can show a profit over the long haul because the value is there.

I don't follow Catskill Steve enough to know if he has a profit or not after last night's pick-5...but I see that he invested $36 on his winning ticket...and if he had invested an average of $36 a play over his prior 35 losses...then he was stuck $1,260 going into last night.

[pandy]

He did not average $36. His total wager for the 36 nights was less than $1,000 so he actually has a pretty nice profit from a percentage standpoint.

[1st time lasix]

Of course these wagers "are hard to hit"....that is why they create signers. Any stat guys following pick five pools....payouts...and differences when the chalk wins leg one or leg two?

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

The California pick 5 at Hollywood. Delmar and Sa is the most solid wager going right now...competitive fields..low takeout...good pool size..quality tracks..

And every whale, sharpie, and heavy hitter feasting on them.