Need a reality check

[dav4463]

I've been on a roll ! I'm trying out a new (for the sake of a better word) method for selecting my exacta horses. Through 54 races using 3 horse exacta boxes: $648 bet $1593.60 return. I've never made this type of profit on exactas in my life. Can it possibly continue even close to this? The key is ranking the horses and then throwing out the obvious and looking for the best chance to pull off an upset. So far.... 15 exacta hits in 54 races with an average payoff over $106. I have a feeling I've just been lucky, but there is a method that I am following and so far so good....I'm not above enjoying the profits of a short-term result!

You have the right idea, but I doubt you'll continue at anything close to the same rate of ROI.

[Geekyguy]

Originally Posted by dav4463

I've been on a roll ! I'm trying out a new (for the sake of a better word) method for selecting my exacta horses. Through 54 races using 3 horse exacta boxes: $648 bet $1593.60 return. I've never made this type of profit on exactas in my life. Can it possibly continue even close to this? The key is ranking the horses and then throwing out the obvious and looking for the best chance to pull off an upset. So far.... 15 exacta hits in 54 races with an average payoff over $106. I have a feeling I've just been lucky, but there is a method that I am following and so far so good....I'm not above enjoying the profits of a short-term result!

I'd say keep playing the method until it gives you a reason not to.

Whatever you do, DO NOT SELL THE METHOD as that will kill its value.

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by dav4463

I've been on a roll ! I'm trying out a new (for the sake of a better word) method for selecting my exacta horses. Through 54 races using 3 horse exacta boxes: $648 bet $1593.60 return. I've never made this type of profit on exactas in my life. Can it possibly continue even close to this? The key is ranking the horses and then throwing out the obvious and looking for the best chance to pull off an upset. So far.... 15 exacta hits in 54 races with an average payoff over $106. I have a feeling I've just been lucky, but there is a method that I am following and so far so good....I'm not above enjoying the profits of a short-term result!

I don't think it's just the wagering strategy that's winning for you, it's good handicapping as well, just baced on what you said. I might add, if your skipping races where the risk is higher, your on your way to becoming a good gambler. Myself, I'd take more tickets on the ones where as you put it, " chance to pull off an upset."


Good luck,

T.D.

[Light]

Originally Posted by dav4463

The key is ranking the horses...

Ranked according to what?

[Handiman]

The four legged ones get top ranking..the three legged ones not so much...


Sorry, just needed a little levity this morning, the way my wife and kids have been treating me, plus the horses, I feel like a warm steaming pile that just fell from the south end of a last place finsher on a very cold morning.

Handi

[cato]

Congratulations! Run with it as long as you can!
Be sure to document what is working--write out the esact procedures you are using. My tendency has been when I uncover something like this and have success for awhile, I become overly aggresive and bend the rules to get more bets in and then --boom the edge is gone--

SO stay true to what works

Having said all that my guess is you start coming back to reality in another 50 races or so, reversion to the mean and all that, but as Geekguy said go with it until it proves to not work any more.

Cato

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by Light

Ranked according to what?

The main thing I use to finalize contenders is class moves as I try to see what the trainer is doing and whether or not the horse is spotted well.

The rankings are very basic. I have four main categories that I use to rank the horses. If the horse ranks one or two in any of the four categories, he is a possible contender. I use speed (I like the Beyers!), form, running style, and connections. Nothing fancy, but the final contender selection is pretty easy once I've narrowed it down to three or four horses. If the horse's four rankings add up to ten or less (example: ranks number one in all four categories= 4 points) or the horse has the best last race Beyer, I throw them out of the exacta if I can find anything wrong with them. If I can't find a reason to throw them out, I pass the race. If a horse does not rank top 4 in a category, I call it a six. example: rank of (1, 3, out, 4) would equal 14 (higher than ten means possible contender unless he has best last race Beyer).

I then play exacta boxes of top three horses when the probable payoff is $50 or more at 3 mtp. Occasionally I will include a fourth or fifth choice for second if it looks like a $100+ exacta chance.

[NYPlayer]

Originally Posted by dav4463

I've been on a roll ! I'm trying out a new (for the sake of a better word) method for selecting my exacta horses. Through 54 races using 3 horse exacta boxes: $648 bet $1593.60 return. I've never made this type of profit on exactas in my life. Can it possibly continue even close to this? The key is ranking the horses and then throwing out the obvious and looking for the best chance to pull off an upset. So far.... 15 exacta hits in 54 races with an average payoff over $106. I have a feeling I've just been lucky, but there is a method that I am following and so far so good....I'm not above enjoying the profits of a short-term result!

Report back after you have 500 races. I'll be waiting.....

Good luck.

[andicap]

In terms of ranking horses, you should read Dave Schwartz's stuff on Reynolds rankings -- of course don't read it unless things go south!! Don't change a thing now.
Its a different way of rating horses once you have final rankings. Instead of adding the rankings you multiply them, I believe.

Another thing to consider is if you have 1 low odds horse and two longshots you may want to play the race. By low I mean 2-1 or higher depending on field size, etc.
Check out what a 2-1/10-1 can pay in a 10-horse field.....

[Hosshead]

Dave, Congratulations! Keep on doing what you're doing. Only time will tell if you're on a "streak".
If you want to analyze it further, I would say, try to "nail down" what you really are doing, as much as possible. Especially the part in the "grey" (subjective) area.

Possible grey areas might include: (underlined)

"The key is ranking the horses and then throwing out the obvious and looking for the best chance to pull off an upset".

"I try to see what the trainer is doing and whether or not the horse is spotted well".

"I use speed, form, running style and connections"..

"I throw them out of the exacta if I can find anything wrong with them".

"If I can't find a reason to throw them out, then I pass the race".

I think if you can quantify some of these decisions, it will take some pressure off. Otherwise you'll be going with your "gut feeling" in the "grey" area, which a lot of cappers do. But can cause a "stomach ache".

Originally Posted by dav4463

.... I've never made this type of profit on exactas in my life. Can it possibly continue even close to this? !

Beyer called this the "Messiah Complex" <g> Good Luck.

[dav4463]

Thanks for all the great replies! I will definitely report results every 100 races or so. The last 14 races this weekend were pretty good. I missed 10 in a row, the top Beyer horse won seven times! Then hit for $66, missed two more and then hit for $176 . I didn't get to play Sunday or Monday, but will keep plugging away. I also caught a $21.40 winner, but missed the exacta. I still should remember to put something on the win end I guess! Only 2 for 14 this weekend, but still a profit.

[dav4463]

Where do you get the Reynold's Rankings? I like to read everything.

[bobbyb]

Good Fortune Dave!!

You can read the Reynolds article @

http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff...lds/index.html

bobbyb

[Light]

Interesting article but I see 1 big flaw. I also use modeling but not so general. My modeling is narrowed to a track based on class,distance,surface,sex, and age. Can't see lumping all the different races on a card and getting a handle on anything. As I said in another thread,I have started modeling the individual BC races over the last 3 years with very good results. It actually reduced the contenders of the Pleasant Home race to four which included the top 2 finishers. (Allthough I didn't bet it). If you took the entire card as a model as Dave suggested,there would just be too wide a range with favorites and bombs so that you could never get the contenders reduced to 4 in a race such as with PH.

And dav4463,I understand your excitement. I started modeling 3 years ago and have never looked back. By far the best form of handicapping.