Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Lets talk some 2nd and 3rd tier horses who can land into the super.
Vino Rosso- RAN sire line, Buckpasser - X, sub 38 final 3/8 and looks like he will only get better with more distance.
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He might just "clunk up" into the winners circle. He remains on the top of my checklist and obtaining the services of JV is a bonus.
There are a lot more contenders fitting various angles I like this year perhaps making it less likely for an oddball to hit the board. Several of these legit contenders have knocks on them so I won't rule out the B52 bomber yet.
Every last one of the Derby contenders who secured a gate ran 1:11+ to the 3/4 pole last out. This suggests an average pace. It then comes down to who is close enough with a solid closing kick.
Hofburg - ran a fast final 3/8th in Florida. The horse seemingly has room to improve. Fast closing Buckpasser-x horses should be respected. You might see 30-1 on the tote.
Quip - I always respect a fast closing Raise A Native horse. I really believe this guy is a closer in disguise. Look at his LP figures from Tampa and pending LP from the Ark. As a bonus, you get female family 1/Chit Chat. I figure 18-1.
Solomini - Another Raise A Native who posted fast closing numbers. He might just be a cut below the top contenders but I still wouldn't be shocked if he hit the board. I'll guess 18-1 as well.
Lone Sailor - Final fractions in Louisiana Derby were slow but this guy ran a respectable race. He does have Courtly Dee in the tail which is a big plus in my book. Louisiana Derby horses have fared well hitting the board. I think he's a bigger reach than Golden Soul but it is the Derby. Perhaps 50-1.