Turf And Pace Explained - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Geekyguy · 11-02-2005, 11:04 PM

Following is a summary of how pace handicapping works on the turf:

1. If the early fractions are fast (e.g., 22.3, 45.1 for a mile race), the 78-1 shot who is in front by a dozen will quit on the turn, and a closer will win the race. The rabbit will then drop in class and distance, and wire a dirt field at 12-1 next time out.

2. If the early fractions are slow, (e.e., 26.1, 50.1 for a mile race), the last two fractions will be 1:12.3 and 1:35.0 for the mile, and a closer will come from six lengths off the pace to win.

3. If your 6-5 favorite has a 10-point edge in the Beyers, a four-length lead on the far turn, and the fractions are slow, a closer will still win the race.

4. If you bet a closer, a 24-1 first-timer on the grass will wire the field, while your horse just misses nailing him at the wire.

5. If the race is being held on a course with a two or three-letter abbreviation in the DRF past performances, a closer will win the race.

6. If hell hasn't frozen over yet, a closer will win the race.

Tom · 11-02-2005, 11:07 PM

Unless early horses are winning.

cnollfan · 11-02-2005, 11:19 PM

Though there are some fluctuations from meet to meet, by and large, front-runners won turf routes at a 14% clip at all U.S. tracks combined in 2003 and 2004. If the average field size was eight (I don't know what it was but eight is a reasonably conservative number), a random distribution of front-runners would win at a 12.5% clip. So, it seems to me that early speed is not disadvantaged on the turf. Because speed holds so much better on dirt than on turf, most handicappers treat speed on the turf as a negative, rather than a neutral. This knee-jerk reaction against speed on the turf may have contributed to the Players Pool going nine deep in the Filly and Mare Turf and leaving Intercontinental off the ticket, even though she appeared likely to control the pace. (I am not redboarding Intercontinental, as Pace Advantage readers can see.)

Even Geekguy's humorous missive above included a 24-1 wire to wire turf winner!

Vegas711 · 11-03-2005, 03:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geekyguy

Following is a summary of how pace handicapping works on the turf:

1. If the early fractions are fast (e.g., 22.3, 45.1 for a mile race), the 78-1 shot who is in front by a dozen will quit on the turn, and a closer will win the race. The rabbit will then drop in class and distance, and wire a dirt field at 12-1 next time out.

2. If the early fractions are slow, (e.e., 26.1, 50.1 for a mile race), the last two fractions will be 1:12.3 and 1:35.0 for the mile, and a closer will come from six lengths off the pace to win.

3. If your 6-5 favorite has a 10-point edge in the Beyers, a four-length lead on the far turn, and the fractions are slow, a closer will still win the race.

4. If you bet a closer, a 24-1 first-timer on the grass will wire the field, while your horse just misses nailing him at the wire.

5. If the race is being held on a course with a two or three-letter abbreviation in the DRF past performances, a closer will win the race.

6. If hell hasn't frozen over yet, a closer will win the race.

2. 22.2 final fraction only in my dreams.

4. Sounds like you may be having a bad luck run. Take it in stride everyone has losing streaks even Pros.Things always turn around, stay positive.

Geekyguy · 11-03-2005, 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas711

2. 22.2 final fraction only in my dreams.

4. Sounds like you may be having a bad luck run. Take it in stride everyone has losing streaks even Pros.Things always turn around, stay positive.

Bad luck is part of the game and why they pay so much when they win. I don't sweat the short run and actually had a very good month so far.

I can show you many horses who come home in sub-:23 on the grass, btw. Awad used to do it all the time (he's responsible for about half of the above "rules" in fact).

Fact is, frontrunners on the lawn, except in maiden races and some stakes, are horrible bets.

To the other guy: you damn right I didn't have Intercontinental. I don't care if he won; betting frontrunners on the lawn is pure suicide and an emotional torture suitable only for masochists.

hurrikane · 11-03-2005, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Fact is, frontrunners on the lawn, except in maiden races and some stakes, are horrible bets.

This is in fact...not a fact at all.

Jeff P · 11-03-2005, 01:33 PM

All Turf Routes from 12 tracks I followed during 2004....

Code:

     Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor
     Filters Applied: 
     Turf (All*)  ROUTES  (From Index File: F:\2004\2004StarterDB\pl_Complete_History_2004.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals   21411.20  21201.00  21043.40
     Bet            -28200.00 -28200.00 -28200.00
     Gain            -6788.80  -6999.00  -7156.60

     Wins                1594      3173      4723
     Plays              14100     14100     14100
     PCT                .1130     .2250     .3350

     ROI               0.7593    0.7518    0.7462
     Avg Mut            13.43      6.68      4.46



     By: Q Speed Points Number

            Q SpdPts       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   0   -1786.00   5350.00    0.6662    248   2675     .0927  
                   1    -456.00   2156.00    0.7885    119   1078     .1104  
                   2    -861.90   3394.00    0.7461    190   1697     .1120  
                   3    -962.90   3924.00    0.7546    231   1962     .1177  
                   4   -1027.70   3632.00    0.7170    214   1816     .1178  
                   5    -515.60   3592.00    0.8565    211   1796     .1175  
                   6    -977.40   2908.00    0.6639    155   1454     .1066  
                   7      58.20   1120.00    1.0520     77    560     .1375  
                   8    -259.50   2124.00    0.8778    149   1062     .1403  



     By: Q Speed Points Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1    -704.00   4586.00    0.8465    307   2293     .1339  
                   2    -848.00   3430.00    0.7528    197   1715     .1149  
                   3    -885.80   3272.00    0.7293    196   1636     .1198  
                   4    -432.30   3348.00    0.8709    218   1674     .1302  
                   5   -1012.80   3218.00    0.6853    160   1609     .0994  
                   6    -892.50   2982.00    0.7007    165   1491     .1107  
                   7    -896.50   2812.00    0.6812    141   1406     .1003  
                   8    -396.10   2070.00    0.8086    103   1035     .0995  
                   9    -549.20   1486.00    0.6304     58    743     .0781  
                  10     -18.60    694.00    0.9732     39    347     .1124  
                  11    -150.40    224.00    0.3286      8    112     .0714  
                  12       5.40     70.00    1.0771      2     35     .0571  
                  13      -8.00      8.00    0.0000      0      4     .0000  
                  14       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000  
                  15       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000  
                  16       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000  
                  17       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000  
                  18       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000  
                  19       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000

-jp

delayjf · 11-03-2005, 03:04 PM

I have found that speed horses on turf can succeed if they are able to run the final fraction in @ 24 (for a mile) or 30 (1 1/16) or 36 (1 1/8). If they are able to get a comfortable pace one that is even that does not require them to accelerate they have an advantage.

Intercontinental is a classic example of this. In his two previous starts at shorter distances had run the final fraction in 24 3/5 and 29 2/5. He has the late ability to win on the turf. But looking at his fractions at those same races revealed something to me. My experience had taught me that front runners on the turf do better when they can run even fractions IE 24 / 48 for the opening quarter and half. But Intercontinental had actually accelerated between pace call in his second start back at DeLmar with fractions of

1 1/16 at Kee 24 23 2/5 23 29 2/5

He actually excelerated and still had the ability to run a sub 30 second final 3/16. Fast forward to the BC and he gets fractions of

24 24 4/5 24 3/5 24 2/5 24 1/5

His each of his BC fractions were at least 1 second slower than what he had previously ran - Again, He still was able to accelerate in the final fraction.

bottom line for me is front runners have to be able to finish the final fraction. The above guidelines have worked for me. No I didn't bet him either, I thought the distance might be his undoing, that alone with another runner to push him. Didn't happen.

clue · 11-03-2005, 05:21 PM

I'll bet front runners on turf when the race's running style matchup points to that type of runner but I'll want my front runner to show me he distributes his energy in a sustained fashion.

I don't believe this is a contradiction.

-clue

46zilzal · 11-04-2005, 01:09 AM

True MOST of the time except at 8 furlongs when often the speed stays longer, particularly at Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Fort Erie, Fair Grounds (R.I.P.)and often Hawthorne

DJofSD · 11-04-2005, 01:27 AM

Quote:

2. If the early fractions are slow, (e.e., 26.1, 50.1 for a mile race), the last two fractions will be 1:12.3 and 1:35.0 for the mile, and a closer will come from six lengths off the pace to win.

I recall a race a few years back where the horse on the lead set really slow fractions like this then toyed with the other runners to only pull away from them to win the race handilly. If some one has charts from the early to mid 1990's look for a race by Flawlessly ridden by CJ at DMR.

DJofSD

xfile · 11-04-2005, 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geekyguy

Following is a summary of how pace handicapping works on the turf:

1. If the early fractions are fast (e.g., 22.3, 45.1 for a mile race), the 78-1 shot who is in front by a dozen will quit on the turn, and a closer will win the race. The rabbit will then drop in class and distance, and wire a dirt field at 12-1 next time out.

2. If the early fractions are slow, (e.e., 26.1, 50.1 for a mile race), the last two fractions will be 1:12.3 and 1:35.0 for the mile, and a closer will come from six lengths off the pace to win.

3. If your 6-5 favorite has a 10-point edge in the Beyers, a four-length lead on the far turn, and the fractions are slow, a closer will still win the race.

4. If you bet a closer, a 24-1 first-timer on the grass will wire the field, while your horse just misses nailing him at the wire.

5. If the race is being held on a course with a two or three-letter abbreviation in the DRF past performances, a closer will win the race.

6. If hell hasn't frozen over yet, a closer will win the race.

Somebody forgot to tell INTERCONTINENTAL