Live Handicappers' Exposition: Part 2

[Dave Schwartz]

Based upon the response of this board, I may have to reconsider the idea of trying to make this happen.

The people who are known to us on THIS board may very well have the ability to draw from THIS board, but (no offense meant here) people like Thaskalos and Aner are just not household words that will fill enough seats to justify this endeavor.

Let me ask a slightly different but more obvious question:

"Who would you be willing to PAY to hear talk at a Live, On-line Handicapping Exposition?"

Would you PAY for a group comprised of the following people (alphabetical order):

Group A
Aner
CJ
Craven
DaHoss
Delta Lover
Game Theory
Kipness
Mark Goldie
Platt
Raybo
Schwartz
Thaskalos

I mean no disrespect to these guys but I was thinking more along the lines of:

Group B
Beyer
Brohamer
Free
Kipness
Litfin
Pizzolla
Quinn
Schwartz
Serling
Trifecta Mike

So, the real question is in the poll.

[thaskalos]

Something tells me that this idea will never come to fruition...

[cj]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I mean no disrespect to these guys but I was thinking more along the lines of:

Group B
Beyer
Brohamer
Free
Kipness
Litfin
Pizzolla
Quinn
Schwartz
Serling
Trifecta Mike

No disrespect, and I don't even think that I belong in Group A, but come on Dave.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Based upon the response of this board, I may have to reconsider the idea of trying to make this happen.

The people who are known to us on THIS board may very well have the ability to draw from THIS board, but (no offense meant here) people like Thaskalos and Aner are just not household words that will fill enough seats to justify this endeavor.

Let me ask a slightly different but more obvious question:

"Who would you be willing to PAY to hear talk at a Live, On-line Handicapping Exposition?"

Would you PAY for a group comprised of the following people (alphabetical order):

Group A
Aner
CJ
Craven
DaHoss
Delta Lover
Game Theory
Kipness
Mark Goldie
Platt
Raybo
Schwartz
Thaskalos

I mean no disrespect to these guys but I was thinking more along the lines of:

Group B
Beyer
Brohamer
Free
Kipness
Litfin
Pizzolla
Quinn
Schwartz
Serling
Trifecta Mike

So, the real question is in the poll.

I mean no disrespect either, but, in my opinion...this is Group B:

Beyer
Quinn
Davidowitz
Ragozin
Friedman
Brohamer
Fotias
Cornman
Serling
Schmidt

[classhandicapper]

I would pay for Paul Cornman because I don't have access to him and have very specific questions I'd like to ask him.

I might be interested in Brad Thomas also.

Most of the rest have written books, write articles, post here etc..

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would pay for Paul Cornman because I don't have access to him and have very specific questions I'd like to ask him.

I might be interested in Brad Thomas also.

Most of the rest have written books, write articles, post here etc..

Brad Thomas would be a good participant.

[RunForTheRoses]

The name Paul Cornman rang a bell from the past (Harvey Pack Show). Googled and found this very interesting article from 1988 about a day at Belmont. Hard to believe 1988 was that long ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/24/ma...ted=all&src=pm

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

The name Paul Cornman rang a bell from the past (Harvey Pack Show). Googled and found this very interesting article from 1988 about a day at Belmont. Hard to believe 1988 was that long ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/24/ma...ted=all&src=pm

WOW! Those were the days!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Based upon the response of this board, I may have to reconsider the idea of trying to make this happen.

The people who are known to us on THIS board may very well have the ability to draw from THIS board, but (no offense meant here) people like Thaskalos and Aner are just not household words that will fill enough seats to justify this endeavor.

Let me ask a slightly different but more obvious question:

"Who would you be willing to PAY to hear talk at a Live, On-line Handicapping Exposition?"

Would you PAY for a group comprised of the following people (alphabetical order):

Group A
Aner
CJ
Craven
DaHoss
Delta Lover
Game Theory
Kipness
Mark Goldie
Platt
Raybo
Schwartz
Thaskalos

I mean no disrespect to these guys but I was thinking more along the lines of:

Group B
Beyer
Brohamer
Free
Kipness
Litfin
Pizzolla
Quinn
Schwartz
Serling
Trifecta Mike

So, the real question is in the poll.

A bit of advice. I think few would pay to listen to a number of people expounding on the use of statistics in racing, as interesting as that might be to computer handicappers. No one wants to pay good money to hear an expert destroy his or her cherished illusions about small sample models.

Similarly, aside from bragging rights (as in "I was at Handicapping Expo 2020, and I heard yada yada say blah blah" or whatever), I don't think that people who are primarily turf writers would do more than re-run stuff they have already written. Re-cycled Handicapping 101, as others have indicated elsewhere.

If you want to put together something useful and valuable (and well worth paying for), bypass the panel that uses such venues as product or service promotion, and find the likes of Paul Mellos. Fill in information gaps, rather than putting together a group of people promoting their latest books, DVDs, or whatever else they are selling. The Handicapping Expos were a great idea handled poorly.

Paul Mellos would be on top of a very short list. You might consider others of his caliber, most likely Australian or British. Along with someone extremely knowledgable about the specifics techniques of analyzing races at Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

[arno]

I'd love to hear Cornman as I still think of him as a harness handicapper from the days he worked at Sports Eye. Be nice to hear how he made the transition from trotters to TBreds.
Also, would love to see a pace handicapper versue someone who doesn't care about pace. How about CJ versus Freidman?

[cj]

Originally Posted by traynor

No one wants to pay good money to hear an expert destroy his or her cherished illusions about small sample models.

You greatly underestimate bettors, or overestimate yourself. Maybe it is some of both. One thing you obviously underestimate is the value of small samples. The game is parimutuel, so if you wait too long, many of those big samples will only show you what formerly worked, not what works now.

There is value in both short and long term models IF you know how to use them.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by cj

You greatly underestimate bettors, or overestimate yourself. Maybe it is some of both. One thing you obviously underestimate is the value of small samples. The game is parimutuel, so if you wait too long, many of those big samples will only show you what formerly worked, not what works now.

There is value in both short and long term models IF you know how to use them.

Tell it to a statistician, not me.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by traynor

A bit of advice. I think few would pay to listen to a number of people expounding on the use of statistics in racing, as interesting as that might be to computer handicappers. No one wants to pay good money to hear an expert destroy his or her cherished illusions about small sample models.

Similarly, aside from bragging rights (as in "I was at Handicapping Expo 2020, and I heard yada yada say blah blah" or whatever), I don't think that people who are primarily turf writers would do more than re-run stuff they have already written. Re-cycled Handicapping 101, as others have indicated elsewhere.

I don't presume to know what most people would care to pay for -- although the results of this poll clearly indicate that most would not be willing to pay for anything -- but I know what interests me. And I would gladly pay to hear an expert destroy whatever illusions or misconceptions I might have about the game. It occurs to me that such information would be a bargain at any price.

I also disagree with the notion that turf writers would have nothing to offer other than "re-cycled handicapping 101" advice.

Some of these authors also happen to be two-fisted bettors with many years of experience...and they have not written anything in more than a decade. I would have to assume that they have more to offer today than what they have previously written many years ago. Beyer himself hasn't written at length for over 18 years.

[eurocapper]

I suspect there is a tendency for authors to throw out what they have used before (when it's becoming unprofitable) while keeping the most recent angles for themselves. I think Beyer for example states he is nowadays playing to surface switchers. But how to bet is not a handicapping secret.

[cj]

Originally Posted by traynor

Tell it to a statistician, not me.

Too deep for you?

You said the statisticians were experts, not me.