The Skeptical Handicapper by Barry Meadow is Great!!

[maddog42]

This thread is dedicated to the best handicapping book I have read in 15 years. I have a few beefs with Meadow about this book, but they are minor. There is no index in the book, so I spent a couple hours making my own index. He takes a swipe at "The Power of Early Speed" by Klein which I disagree with, but all in all it is a masterpiece.

Thanks Barry, I appreciate all you have done for this sport.

[Tom]

This might help....he put this lut a few years ago......

The 4 and 5 workout he describes is very goof. I use it on every race to this day.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by Tom

This might help....he put this lut a few years ago......

The 4 and 5 workout he describes is very goof. I use it on every race to this day.

Thanks Tom. This is a lot better index than I made.

[thaskalos]

This book sat on my bookshelf untouched for a whole year. And then I picked it up and started reading during a boring Tuesday afternoon a couple months ago...and the book hasn't left my bedside ever since. An excellent book that had to be written...and it couldn't have been authored by a better person...IMO. Barry Meadow = INTEGRITY, as far as I am concerned...and I am proud to say that I am a longtime fan.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This book sat on my bookshelf untouched for a whole year. And then I picked it up and started reading during a boring Tuesday afternoon a couple months ago...and the book hasn't left my bedside ever since. An excellent book that had to be written...and it couldn't have been authored by a better person...IMO. Barry Meadow = INTEGRITY, as far as I am concerned...and I am proud to say that I am a longtime fan.

Well hell, now I have to buy it.

[Tom]

Ken Massa of HTR did the db work.
A great project by two great minds.

[Poindexter]

Has Barry and Ken Massa done updates on the stats? Wasn't this written 3 to 5 years ago? Knowing the stats on a certain angle obviously should include the most recent data. Seems to me like ever 2 or 3 years or so they should do an update on each angle and just sell the updates for like 15 bucks a pop. Maybe they already do?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Has Barry and Ken Massa done updates on the stats? Wasn't this written 3 to 5 years ago? Knowing the stats on a certain angle obviously should include the most recent data. Seems to me like ever 2 or 3 years or so they should do an update on each angle and just sell the updates for like 15 bucks a pop. Maybe they already do?

I agree.

The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.

To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.

If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.

If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.

The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree.

The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.

To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.

If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.

If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.

The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.

In the last few years, I have changed my views on an odds line.

I am no longer looking to change the way I calculate odds, though I don't close my mind to the possibility. I try to stay away from the most volatile factors and I include enough factors to make them somewhat self-stabilizing.

And, I don't try to closely compare the odds line to the tote board. I just figure the odds line should estimate how strong a play a horse is by traditional standards. That way i don't go crazy when the whales drop the odds late. lol I know that any horse I have at or below 3/1 could go to odds on at closing.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree.

The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.

To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.

If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.

If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.

The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.

So often with angles a positive ROI is nothing more than noise in a dataset. Until they do their own research though most people will not understand that. In their mind things stop being profitable because someone found it and jumped on it. Large out of sample testing is critical IMO but since large datasets are generally not easy to come by I suspect very few people are wiling to split up a sample in the first place.

[thaskalos]

Seeing that Meadow is retired...I don't think an updated version of the book is upcoming. I am just glad that a thorough analysis into the various handicapping "factors" was undertaken by someone(Massa) with a database large enough for the task.

[Speed Figure]

What's the difference between this book and Percentages and Probabilities 2022?

[Light]

Based on the enthusiasm here I bought the ebook version of this book and having read 10% of it all I can say so far is

As I continued reading today it gets worse:

"the goal of this book is to get you to think about handicapping in a way that considers various elements...because sometimes you have to downgrade a horse with seemingly positive form and sometimes you have to upgrade a horse who at first glance looks like a throw out."

If this book said "for beginners" I would give him a pass. But if this is the low caliber bar this book thinks is a revelation, I'll laugh it off for thinking something so banal is a difference maker. We all do that every day in our handicapping. Where has this guy been? Under a rock?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Light

Based on the enthusiasm here I bought the ebook version of this book and having read 10% of it all I can say so far is

As I continued reading today it gets worse:

"the goal of this book is to get you to think about handicapping in a way that considers various elements...because sometimes you have to downgrade a horse with seemingly positive form and sometimes you have to upgrade a horse who at first glance looks like a throw out."

If this book said "for beginners" I would give him a pass. But if this is the low caliber bar this book thinks is a revelation, I'll laugh it off for thinking something so banal is a difference maker. We all do that every day in our handicapping. Where has this guy been? Under a rock?

[Light]

Yeah PA. You like it when I get "triggered" as you say. Now I've read 20% of the book and he says " this book is devoted more to questions than to answers".

At least its amusing that Meadow thinks he is making me think... Not. He is making me laugh because he thinks he is opening my handicapping mind. Riiiiigght.