Rebel Stakes

[Aerocraft67]

Exactas
/
/
++

Trifectas
//

Superfectas
///

Some of those tosses snuck into the bottom of the super. Oops.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

WP
EX
/ EX
// TRI

[jay68802]

Exacta Box.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Exacta Box.

[jay68802]

PalaceOfFortLarned

TY

$268.00

[Tom]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Exacta Box.

[Aerocraft67]

Well, we correctly predicted a fine exacta. Congrats to Jay for actually hitting it!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Turned out to actually be our best KD prep thus far. With a tough track, and a deep field, they delivered the best 8.5F time of the day. Early splits were torrid as expected, but the top 4 finished well.

Verifying: Not giving up on this one after his 4th place finish. The bad inside post forced his hand to get involved early, and he got bottled up late and while not finishing great, he did pass a few coming home. A better post and a better trip and he is a much bigger factor. Can certainly improve off of this one.

Reincarnate: Had a fairly troubled trip, took plenty of mud, and bumped with others a few times, but was still finding some late. Only lost by 2.5 with a lot going against him. For a front-running type, it was good to see he could pass a number of horses if needed.

Red Route One: Ran his now stylish drop back and come with one run. If not for some traffic trouble, may well have been in the winner's circle. As always, his style is fun to watch, but he'll always have to navigate traffic passing nearly the entire field. He'll have to be considered in any race going forward as he has the look and definitely the breeding to go longer.

Confidence Game: Comes back with a 94 Beyer and he ran great. 4 wide most of the race, when given the green light he had a lot of energy and finished strong with plenty in the tank. That was a big step forward for him, and there is a bit of a question of the track moving him up so much. Either way, he has earned a spot in the gate the 1st weekend in May.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Turned out to actually be our best KD prep thus far. With a tough track, and a deep field, they delivered the best 8.5F time of the day. Early splits were torrid as expected, but the top 4 finished well.

Red Route One and maybe the winner are the only promising ones going forward for the classics.

Red Route One twice now has displayed a monster turn move vaguely reminiscent of Victory Gallop. However, he has also twice now failed to switch leads properly or follow through in the stretch. If he stays in one piece he may blossom into a top older horse. Some minor improvement in the short term and he should be dangerous against this crop of 3yos.

Verifying has tanked 3 times in graded stakes. He had good position early yet didn't even make any sort of bid when the pacesetters started laboring and then plodded along to just edge his distance limited stablemate (who was able to make a bid on the leaders) and some 80-1 shot. Midwest Derby hero at best.

Giant's Mischief needs to regroup as a late running sprinter. If they back off the Derby trail now and get him to switch off early he could light them up in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day.

Reincarnate showed absolutely no speed, saved ground on the turn and at no point even before getting shut off did he look like he was going to match strides with Red Route One. He'll probably be a vulnerable underlay in his next start (unless its the Sunland Park Derby).

[classhandicapper]

Verifying was probably a hair too close to that fast pace. That may account for why he didn't finish well, but nothing about that performance suggests Derby.

Reincarnate usually has some positional speed, but the and crossed in from of him soon out of the gate. At that point Velasquez seemed to just let the horse run on his own and take back instead of trying for something in the middle. It's not like being back there was any disadvantage anyway, especially considering he saved ground on a day the rail was good.

The race was loaded with speed, the fractions were fast, the top 4 early all ran Beyers below their best (2 of which were longshots), and the top 3 came from well off the pace. You can always nitpick individual performances, but I think it's pretty clear that race set up for a closer.

[cj]

We talk about the race quite a bit at the beginning of this week's podcast:

YouTube

[classhandicapper]

The winner is by Eblouissante. That's that huge John Shirreffs filly that was a half to Zenyatta that got hyped early in her career. She smashed her face into the gate up at Saratoga, lost a tooth, didn't lift a hoof, and then was never much after that. I saw her that day. She was impressive looking.

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The winner is by Eblouissante. That's that huge John Shirreffs filly that was a half to Zenyatta that got hyped early in her career. She smashed her face into the gate up at Saratoga, lost a tooth, didn't lift a hoof, and then was never much after that. I saw her that day. She was impressive looking.

Confidence Game was my sentimental choice because of his pedigree, but I didn't bet a penny.

Red Route One's deep close was impressive, but I'm 99% sure trainers/jockeys/bettors will overcompensate for last year's Derby. After Mine That Bird won the '09 Derby coming from last, the 2010 Derby was a snooze-fest of front runners and no horse had odds lower than 18-1.